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EUR Slumps as ECB Holds Rates Steady Amid Slight USD Pullback

EUR Slumps as ECB Holds Rates Steady Amid Slight USD Pullback

The European currency faced a relentless decline on Thursday, pushed to the brink of 2024 lows as the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) fortified the persistent strength of the US Dollar (USD).

EUR/USD Approaching Annual Lows

ECB’s Decision Keeps EUR Under Bearish Shadow

The EUR/USD pair languished under pressure throughout Thursday’s American session, barely holding back from the tipping point of 1.0700. Market participants had braced for the ECB’s interest rate announcement which offered few surprises, holding the Marginal Lending Facility Rate at 4.75% and the Deposit Facility Rate at 4.00%. The focus quickly shifted to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s subsequent remarks and key economic data releases from the United States.

US Economic Data Introduce Slight USD Pullback

In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March crept up by a marginal 0.2% month-over-month and elevated to 2.1% year-over-year, falling short of expectations. The core PPI however sprung a slight surprise, posting a 2.4% increase, a notch above forecasts. Concurrently, initial jobless claims outperformed expectations, presenting a mild decline to 211,000 for the week ending April 5, offering consolation and a subdued easing in USD strength as equity markets sought recovery after Wednesday’s losses.

Lagarde’s Speech Offers Little Respite for the EUR

Amidst ECB President Lagarde’s discourse, the EUR/USD was seen stabilizing proximate to 1.0740, displaying limited daily changes. A tepid revival in stock market sentiment curtailed the USD demand momentarily. However, the market’s reaction to the ECB’s resolution remained muted.

GBP/USD Stumbles to Multi-Month Troughs

Anticipation of Fed Policy Hold Amplifies USD Rally

In parallel movements, GBP/USD succumbed to the rising USD tide, surrendering earlier gains and plunging to December’s nadir in the vicinity of 1.2500. Heightened expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates into June spurred the USD, driving down GBP/USD to a two-month low of 1.2520 before witnessing minor recovery the following Thursday.

CPI Data Fuels USD Bullishness

March’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics fanned the flames of the Greenback rally, revealing inflation figures surpassing both February’s numbers and market projections. Core CPI consistently pegged at 3.8% year-over-year further entrenched the USD dominance.

Gold Struggles as US Treasury Yields Climb

Amid higher US government bond yields, Gold faced challenges in sustaining its position above $2,040. The precious metal dipped below this critical support level after a brief European session peak, with the 10-year US Treasury yield ascendancy hindering the commodity’s recovery momentum.

XAU/USD Rebounds Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Strains

Despite the US Dollar basking near its yearly highs, Gold (XAU/USD) managed a reversal of some losses driven by recent US CPI revelations, evidently backed by enduring geopolitical tensions. FOMC meeting insights hinting at elongated periods of high-interest rates further fortified the USD while impeding the allure of the non-yielding metal.

Investors now await fresh US statistics—including the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI)—alongside speeches from prominent FOMC figures to direct the near-term trajectory of USD movement, potentially influencing Gold’s prospects.

Financial Markets Update

JPY Hits New Lows, WTI Sees Upsurge Amid Mounting Tensions

The Japanese Yen (JPY) reeled to levels unseen since 1990 against the USD following unexpectedly high US consumer inflation data. This development shifted the forecast for the Fed’s inaugural interest rate decrease from June to September. FOMC minutes echoed concerns over possibly prolonged elevated interest rate periods, burdening the JPY against a backdrop of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) reticence in policy tightening.

Crude Oil (WTI), on the other hand, reclaimed ground above the $85 mark as tensions in Gaza stirred risk premiums. Speculations over OPEC warning regarding summer shortages in oil markets contributed to this resurgence, even as the US Dollar Index encountered reticence in sustaining gains beyond 105.00 due to the latest uptick in unemployment and PPI figures.

Market Predictions for Traders

EUR/USD and WTI on Traders’ Radars

For intraday traders, the focus remains acutely tuned to EUR/USD dynamics and WTI prices. With a predominant selling recommendation for EUR/USD hinging on resistance at 1.0790, the anticipated dip below 1.0710 looms over traders.

EUR Slumps as ECB Holds Rates Steady Amid Slight USD Pullback

Concurrently, an optimistic outlook for Crude Oil (WTI) leans towards a buying recommendation, pinpointing potential uptrends leading up to the 87.00-87.60 zone.

EUR Slumps as ECB Holds Rates Steady Amid Slight USD Pullback

Market participants continue to adjust their strategies, carefully observing economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical events sculpting the complex landscape of trading.


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  • Zahari Rangelov

    Zahari Rangelov is an experienced professional Forex trader and trading mentor with knowledge in technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management and diversification. He has been involved in the foreign exchange markets since 2005, when he opened his first live account in 2007. Currently, Zahari is the Head of Sales & Business Development at TraderFactor's London branch. He provides lectures during webinars and seminars for traders on topics such as; Psychology of market participants’ moods, Investments & speculation with different financial instruments and Automated Expert Advisors & signal providers. Zahari’s success lies in his application of research-backed techniques and practices that have helped him become a successful forex trader, a mentor to many traders, and a respected authority figure within the trading community.