The Australian Dollar (AUD) has recovered some of its losses against the US Dollar (USD), largely due to a weaker dollar. However, the overall downtrend is still intact. The mixed data coming out of Australia is now shifting focus to the upcoming US housing and jobless claims figures. It’s predicted that the AUD/USD pair will encounter resistance at 0.6545 and 0.6640.
Earlier Predictions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently trading near 0.6560 against the US Dollar (USD), with an immediate support level at 0.6550. Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside, as the rise from 0.6269 is in progress towards a resistance of 0.6894. Market analysts are closely observing the AUD/USD pair, predicting that a break below the support level could significantly influence the currency pair’s movement.
However, there is a neutral sentiment regarding the long-term outlook, suggesting the AUD/USD pair has good chances of returning to the 1:1 ratio. Today’s intraday recommendation is to buy at an entry price of 0.6530 with target and take profit levels at 0.6580 and 0.6600 respectively. This intraday prediction is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which shows an upside momentum.
AUDUSD Daily Chart
Australian Economic Indicators: A Mixed Bag
Australian economic data presents a mixed picture. January saw Consumer Inflation Expectations remain stable at 4.5%, while the number of employed individuals unexpectedly fell, indicating potential weaknesses in the labour market.
Chinese Macroeconomic Data Influence on AUD
China’s GDP Growth Falls Short, Impacting the Aussie
Data released on Wednesday revealed that China’s GDP growth rate for 2023 was 5.2%, falling short of the anticipated 5.3%. In addition, retail sales underperformed, sparking worries about a slow post-pandemic recovery. As China is Australia’s primary trading partner, these factors contribute to the pressure on the Aussie.
Reviewing Australian Economic Data for December 2023
According to the latest reports, the Australian economy experienced mixed outcomes in December 2023. The unemployment rate remained steady, while employment figures saw fluctuations. Here’s a detailed look at the economic indicators for Australia in December 2023.
Employment and Unemployment Rates
In trend terms, the unemployment rate in Australia was stable at 3.8%, while the participation rate remained unchanged at 67.0%. The number of employed individuals increased, reaching 14,246,000. However, the employment to population ratio saw a slight decline, dropping to 64.4%. The underemployment rate held steady at 6.5%, and there was a decrease in monthly hours worked, which fell to 1,928 million.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the unemployment rate held firm at 3.9% in December 2023. The participation rate experienced a slight downturn, decreasing to 66.8%, and employment figures also dropped to 14,201,100. The employment to population ratio declined to 64.2%, and the number of monthly hours worked reduced to 1,926 million.
Full-time and Part-time Employment
In terms of full-time and part-time employment in December 2023, there were notable changes. Full-time employment decreased by 106,600, bringing the total number of full-time employees to 9,791,200 people. In contrast, part-time employment saw an increase, with an additional 41,400 people finding part-time work, bringing the total to 4,409,900 people.
Below is a summary table of the data:
| Economic Indicator | Trend Terms | Seasonally Adjusted Terms |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| Participation Rate | 67.0% | 66.8% |
| Employment | 14,246,000 | 14,201,100 |
| Employment to Population Ratio | 64.4% | 64.2% |
| Underemployment Rate | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Monthly Hours Worked | 1,928 million | 1,926 million |
| Full-Time Employment | – | 9,791,200 people |
| Part-Time Employment | – | 4,409,900 people |
(Source: RBA)
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