Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely and the markets mood improved. DXY steady at 98.27, gold $4762, Bitcoin surges to $78k. UK inflation hits 3.3%. Full analysis inside.

Markets Improve on Trump Iran Ceasefire | TraderFactor

TraderFactor Daily Market Report | April 22, 2026

Global markets saw a sentiment boost after President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, giving Tehran more time to formulate a unified negotiating proposal. However, the underlying truce remains fragile, with the US naval blockade still in place and diplomatic talks stalled. This mixed backdrop has left investors cautiously optimistic, reflected in stabilising currencies, rising equities, and gold holding near key levels.

Quick Answer

Why is market mood improving?
Markets are optimistic due to the indefinite ceasefire extension, but caution persists because the naval blockade remains in place and future talks are uncertain.

Market Snapshot-Support and Resistance Levels

Below is the current market snapshot with Support 1/2 and Resistance 1/2 for each asset:

Market Mood & Sentiment

The indefinite ceasefire extension has reduced the immediate risk of conflict resumption, supporting risk assets. However, traders remain wary because the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, and Iran has not yet formally agreed to resume talks.

As a result:

• Equities hit fresh highs – Dow Jones +0.5% to 49421, NAS100 +0.8% to 26714, SP500 +0.4% to 7115.
• The US Dollar steadied after earlier strength, with DXY at 98.272.
• Gold held near $4762, supported by lingering uncertainty.

US Dollar: Steadies Amid Mixed Signals

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded at 98.272, up from last week’s lows but below the one‑week high of 98.415 seen earlier. The greenback has been supported by:

• Safe‑haven demand despite the ceasefire extension, as the blockade continues.
• Hawkish‑leaning comments from Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, who said he made no rate‑cut promises to Trump and emphasised the Fed’s independence.
• Strong US retail sales (up 1.7% in March, above expectations).

DXY Technical Outlook

• Resistance: 98.50 → 99.00
• Support: 98.00 → 97.50

Why is the US Dollar steady today?
The US Dollar is steady as safe‑haven demand persists despite the ceasefire, while strong economic data and Fed signals limit downside.

Gold: Fights To Retain Safe-Haven Status

Gold held firm at $4,762 after dipping earlier to $4,669‑$4,668. The metal is supported by:

• Lingering geopolitical uncertainty (blockade continues, Iran has not accepted talks).
• A weaker USD compared to yesterday’s highs.
• Inflation concerns fuelled by higher oil prices and resilient consumer spending.

Gold Key Levels

• Resistance: $4,800 → $4,850
• Support: $4,720 → $4,680

Gold is pulling back within an uptrend after easing geopolitical tension. As long as price holds above 4740, the bullish structure remains intact.

👉 Break above 4800 → continuation higher
👉 Break below 4720 → deeper correction

Why is gold stable despite a ceasefire extension?
Gold remains supported because the ceasefire is conditional, the naval blockade continues, and broader geopolitical risks persist.

Oil: WTI Holds Below $90, Supply Risks Remain

WTI crude traded at $88.53, recovering from earlier dips. Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every notes that the extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz (2‑4 weeks) is now the base case, with high escalation risks that could cause more energy supply damage.

Key factors driving oil:

• Continued US blockade and Iranian threats to break it by force.
• Physical oil prices in Asia are rising due to supply disruptions.
• An Iranian gunboat fired on a container ship off Oman, underscoring ongoing tensions.

WTI Key Levels

• Resistance: $90.00 → $92.00
• Support: $87.00 → $85.00

Why is oil holding above $88?
Oil remains elevated because supply disruption risks (Strait of Hormuz closure) persist despite the ceasefire extension.

Bitcoin: Surges to Above $78K

Bitcoin jumped to $78,051, up 2.7% on the day, breaking above the $76,000 level. The rally is driven by:

• Improved risk sentiment following the ceasefire extension.
• Institutional inflows into crypto as an alternative asset.
• A weaker USD providing tailwinds.

BTC Key Levels

• Resistance: $79,000 → $81,000
• Support: $76,000 → $74,000

Why is Bitcoin surging today?
Bitcoin is rising due to improved risk appetite, a weaker US Dollar, and institutional demand, even as traditional markets remain cautious.

Forex Market Highlights

• EURUSD held near 1.1755, supported by USD steadiness and better risk sentiment.
• GBPUSD edged up to 1.3527, with little reaction to UK inflation data.
• USDJPY remained near 159.23, as the yen stayed under pressure from higher US yields.
• AUDUSD rose to 0.7169 on risk‑on flows and higher commodity prices.
• USDCAD eased to 1.3652, pressured by stronger oil prices.

Which forex pairs are moving today?
USD pairs are mixed: EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD are modestly higher, while USDJPY and USDCHF remain stable amid lingering caution.

Equities Outlook-Improved Sentiment Boosts Stocks

Equity markets advanced to record or near‑record highs:

The rally is driven by the ceasefire extension, but gains remain fragile due to the ongoing blockade and stalled diplomatic talks.

Why are stocks holding near highs?
Stocks are supported by improved geopolitical sentiment, but any negative headline could trigger a quick reversal.

Geopolitics: Ceasefire Extended, Blockade Remains

President Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire extension on Truth Social, citing:

• Iran’s “seriously fractured” leadership needs time to form a unified proposal.
• A request from Pakistan’s Army Chief and Prime Minister.

Key developments:

• The US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister called the blockade “an act of war” and vowed to “resist bullying”.
• Vice President JD Vance’s planned trip to Pakistan has been delayed after Iran did not respond to US proposals.

How do geopolitical tensions affect markets?
They create a fragile equilibrium: the ceasefire reduces immediate war risk, but the blockade and lack of formal talks keep volatility high.

Economic Calendar & Key Events

UK Inflation (March) – Released Today

• CPI y/y: 3.3% (vs 3.0% prior) – in line with consensus.
• Monthly CPI: +0.7% (vs +0.3% a year earlier).
• The rise was driven by higher fuel and food prices due to the Iran war.

Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Testimony (Key Takeaways)

• No rate‑cut promises – Warsh stated the president never asked him to commit to any rate decision.
• Fed independence – He vowed to be a “strictly independent” actor on rates.
• Reform agenda – Calls for a new inflation framework and less forward guidance.
• His overall tone was slightly hawkish, but market impact was muted.

Why are these events important?
UK inflation supports a cautious BoE, while Warsh’s testimony sets expectations for future Fed policy direction.

Conclusion

Markets have welcomed the indefinite US-Iran ceasefire extension, pushing equities to new highs and supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the situation remains fragile: the US naval blockade continues, Iran has not formally agreed to resume talks, and oil supply risks persist. The US Dollar has steadied, while gold and oil remain elevated due to lingering uncertainty.

Trading takeaway: The ceasefire has improved sentiment, but headline risk is still high. Traders should watch for any breakdown in talks, new military incidents, or Fed commentary that could shift the mood quickly.

Author Details:

Phyllis Wangui
Senior Market Analyst, TraderFactor

Phyllis Wangui is a seasoned financial markets analyst with over a decade of experience in forex and CFD brokerage evaluation. Specializing in regulatory compliance and risk assessment, she leads the TraderFactor reviews team in delivering transparent, data-driven broker breakdowns that help retail traders navigate complex offshore and Tier-1 trading environments.

Reviewed by Alex Kanyi

Head of Compliance | TraderFactor

“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”

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 Last Updated: April 2026

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