Forex Market Today: RBA Rate Hike Bets Rise After Bullock as Fed Speakers Take Focus

Markets are digesting another hawkish central-bank signal after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock spoke in Sydney earlier today.

Bullock reinforced the RBA’s determination to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, keeping expectations for another Australian interest-rate increase firmly alive ahead of next week’s policy meeting.

The Australian Dollar remains near 0.7120 against the US Dollar, while attention now shifts toward a busy schedule of European and Federal Reserve speakers later today.

Elsewhere, Gold is attempting to recover around $4,350, Bitcoin remains above $85,000, WTI oil has fallen well below $100 and US technology shares are coming off a powerful Monday rally.

🇦🇺 Bullock Has Spoken: What Did the RBA Governor Say?

Bullock largely reinforced the message delivered during last week’s parliamentary testimony.

She emphasized that monetary policy needs to limit the secondary effects of global supply shocks and prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched.

She also indicated that unemployment somewhere around 4.5%–5% could remove enough pressure from Australia’s labour market to help reduce inflation.

Another interesting point concerned artificial intelligence.

Bullock argued that AI could eventually improve productivity, but current investment in data centres and infrastructure is adding demand before the larger productivity benefits arrive.

AUD/USD: Aussie Holds Near 0.7120

AUD/USD is trading around 0.7120–0.7130 following Bullock’s appearance.

The Australian Dollar has support from expectations of tighter RBA policy, but traders are unlikely to receive the final piece of the puzzle until Thursday’s Australian employment report.

Immediate resistance sits near 0.7150 followed by 0.7200.

Support remains around 0.7080 and 0.7050.

US Dollar Holds Above 100

The Dollar Index is holding around the 100.4 region after last week’s Federal Reserve hike.

US yields remain relatively elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield close to 4.95%.

The Dollar therefore retains underlying rate support, but today’s Fed speakers could determine whether markets increase or reduce expectations for additional tightening.

Fed Speakers Become Today’s Main US Catalyst

With no major US inflation release today, central-bank communication could have an outsized influence on the Dollar and Treasury yields.

Fed officials scheduled to speak include:

• John Williams
• Philip Jefferson
• Thomas Barkin

Markets will listen for any indication of how policymakers view the possibility of additional tightening following last week’s rate increase.

Forex Market Today

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1475–1.1480.

ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks later today, while Eurozone consumer confidence is also due.

The 1.1500–1.1550 region remains the first major upside barrier.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades around 1.3370.

Sterling remains caught between the BoE’s relatively hawkish September vote and a Dollar that continues to receive support from higher US rates.

Support sits around 1.3330–1.3300, with resistance around 1.3420–1.3450.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains elevated around 157.3–157.5.

The Yen continues to struggle despite last week’s BoJ rate hike to 1.25%.

Japanese cash markets are closed for a holiday today, which can reduce Tokyo-session liquidity.

The 158.00 area remains an important upside liquidity zone.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD trades around 0.5720.

The Kiwi remains sensitive to global risk sentiment and expectations surrounding China and tomorrow’s PMI data.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD trades around 1.4030.

The Canadian Dollar has lost some of the energy-price support it enjoyed when crude oil was trading above $100.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF trades near 0.8225.

Attention is gradually turning toward Thursday’s Swiss National Bank decision.

🥇 Gold Rebounds Around $4,350

Gold is trading around $4,350–$4,356 after falling on Monday as investors moved back toward risk assets.

The softer 10-year Treasury yield is providing some relief, although expectations for further global monetary tightening remain a headwind.

The key short-term areas are:

• $4,320–$4,300: Downside liquidity/support
• $4,375: Immediate resistance
• $4,400: Major psychological and liquidity level

🛢️ WTI Oil Drops Toward $96

WTI crude is trading around $96 after a sharp retreat from recent highs.

Brent briefly fell below $100 during Monday’s session before recovering toward the $100–$101 region.

The decline in energy prices has reduced some of the immediate inflation pressure that pushed global yields higher earlier this month.

For markets, the relationship remains important:

₿ Bitcoin Holds Above $85K After Eight-Month High

Bitcoin surged above $86,000 on Monday, reaching its highest level in roughly eight months.

BTC is now trading around $85,500–$86,000.

The rally has coincided with stronger demand for technology and other growth-sensitive assets.

Important BTC levels include:

• $84K support
• $82K deeper support
• $86.5K resistance
• $88K next upside area

📈 Wall Street Rallies as Oil and Yields Fall

US equities started the week strongly.

• S&P 500: +1.5% to 7,764.70
• Dow Jones: +0.7% to 52,048.83
• Nasdaq Composite: +2.3% to a record 27,122.09
• Nasdaq 100: approximately 30,482

Technology shares led the advance as falling oil prices and easing Treasury yields reduced some of the pressure on growth-stock valuations.

Tuesday’s US index futures are relatively calm after Monday’s rally, making Fed commentary particularly important for the next directional move.

🌍 Geopolitics and Oil Remain Connected

Markets are monitoring whether diplomatic efforts can reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium that has been embedded in energy prices.

At the same time, security risks across the Middle East remain unresolved, meaning oil could remain highly sensitive to new developments.

Any renewed supply disruption could quickly reverse the recent decline in crude and push inflation expectations higher again.

Current Market Snapshot

Reference prices below are approximate and can vary between brokers and exchanges.

Support & Resistance

📅 Economic Calendar – Tuesday, September 22

✅ RBA Governor Bullock – Already Completed

Bullock reinforced the RBA’s inflation concerns and the need to keep inflation expectations anchored.

🇬🇧 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

Fiscal data could generate some short-term GBP volatility.

🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Markets will listen for guidance following the ECB’s recent rate increase.

🇺🇸 ADP Weekly Employment Change

The weekly employment estimate provides another look at US labour-market momentum.

🇪🇺 Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Expected around -16, keeping attention on the strength of European household demand.

🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Another regional gauge of US manufacturing conditions.

🇺🇸 Fed Speakers

Williams, Jefferson and Barkin are scheduled to speak, putting the post-FOMC rate outlook back in focus.

🛢️ API Oil Data

Oil inventories could attract extra attention following the sharp retreat in crude prices.

🔥 Tomorrow: Global PMIs Take Over

Today’s calendar is dominated by central-bank speakers, but Wednesday brings a much heavier data session.

Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are scheduled across Australia, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom and the United States.

These reports could determine whether markets continue trading the higher-for-longer rate narrative or begin focusing more heavily on slowing global growth.

TraderFactor SMC / ICT Focus

Final Market Outlook

The first major catalyst of Tuesday is already behind us.

Bullock’s comments did little to challenge expectations that the RBA may need to tighten policy further.

That keeps AUD/USD supported near 0.7120 while Thursday’s employment report becomes increasingly important.

For the broader market, attention now moves toward the Federal Reserve.

If Fed officials reinforce the possibility of additional tightening, Treasury yields and the Dollar could strengthen again.

If their tone is less aggressive, Monday’s equity rally could receive further support while Gold may attempt another move toward $4,400.

Oil remains one of the most important macro variables.

Its retreat toward $96 has reduced some inflation pressure, helping bond yields and technology stocks.

Bitcoin’s rally above $85K also shows that risk appetite has improved significantly compared with last week’s central-bank volatility.

Today’s key transition is simple:

RBA risk has been digested. Now the Dollar, yields and Fed speakers take control.

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