Bitcoin traders were taken aback on November 9th as the cryptocurrency‘s value spiked, nearing the $37,000 mark. The BTC/USD pair rose past $36,000 after the daily close, and at one point hit $36,864 on Bitstamp, its highest level since early May 2022.
BTCUSD Daily Chart
Market Concerns and Speculations
The day before this surge, market participants were anxious about bid liquidity decreasing, which may have led to a retest of the $34,000 mark. However, this did not transpire, and an upward trend emerged during United States trading hours. Some believe that this renewed bullishness could be linked to potential U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval.
The Potential Impact of ETF Approval
Although it is not expected until 2024, November 9th marked the start of a period when regulators could theoretically announce the long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. This eight-day window could potentially see all twelve applications approved simultaneously, which has led to significant movement in the crypto market, with Bitcoin successfully surpassing the $36,000 mark.
Analyst Predictions and Industry Reactions
Analyst James Seyffart has suggested there is a 90% chance of approving the spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10, 2024. This includes Grayscale’s Bitcoin “GBTC.” Even if approvals don’t arrive this month, Seyffart believes there is a high likelihood of approval in the near future. News of Blackrock’s spot ETF application has further fuelled industry excitement, leading to increased price volatility.
Bitcoin Price Analysis and Future Outlook
After a period of trading between $26,558.10 and $28,000, Bitcoin’s price broke through the key resistance level of $28,000 for the first time since June. After trading sideways for about a week, the price regained momentum and broke through multiple resistance levels until it was rejected at the crucial level of $35,000.
Bitcoin then traded sideways for over two weeks until the price regained momentum recently and broke out of its resistance level at $36,000. It is now gearing up to test the upper resistance level of $37,000. If the bulls remain in control, the BTC price could reach its resistance level of $37,033.37 soon, setting the stage for an attempt to test its upper resistance level of $38,082.91 in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, if the bears take over, the BTC price could lose momentum and fall to test its support level of $36,000. If the bears continue to dominate the market, the value could further decrease and test its lower support level of $35,000 this month.
US Stock Futures and Bond Yields See an Uptick as Traders Monitor Central Bankers
US stock futures are maintaining a steady state, with bond yields seeing an increase. Traders are keeping a keen eye on policy makers, looking for any indication of a shift in their stance on interest rates. Meanwhile, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index witnessed a rise of 0.4%, while US equity futures remain unchanged. The oil market has been relatively stable, staying close to a three-month low after experiencing a nearly 7% dip over the past two days.
Spotlight on Company Earnings
As the company earnings season draws to a close, certain businesses have caught the market’s attention. Adyen NV, a Dutch payments processor and competitor of Paypal, saw its stock skyrocket by up to 37% following a positive growth outlook. On the other hand, Flutter Entertainment, a gambling firm, experienced an 11% drop in stock value due to revenue falling short of estimates.
Premarket Trading in New York
In premarket trading in New York, Walt Disney Co. saw over 4% gain after reporting higher-than-expected profits. However, ARM Holdings, a chip designer, experienced a decrease in stock value of up to 6%, attributed to a sluggish smartphone market.
The S&P 500’s Winning Streak
The S&P 500 has been on an upward trajectory for eight consecutive days. If this trend continues, it will mark the longest streak of gains since 2004. This rally is largely attributed to the belief that the Fed and other major central banks have reached the end of their rate-hiking phase.
Central Banks and Interest Rates
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos echoed the sentiments of other central bank officials, pushing back against predictions of falling interest rates in the coming year. This perspective could be reinforced by Powell and Lagarde.
Crypto Market Update
In other financial news, Bitcoin reached an 18-month high, fueled by the anticipation of approval for exchange-traded funds to invest in this leading crypto token. Cryptocurrency-linked companies also saw a rise in their stock value in New York’s premarket trading.
Key Events This Week
Several key events are scheduled this week, including speeches from BOE chief economist Huw Pill and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, as well as ECB President Christine Lagarde. These events, coupled with US initial jobless claims and University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, are expected to influence market trends.
Market Movements at a Glance
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose by 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures remained unchanged. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose by 0.4%, but the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 0.2%. In the currency market, the euro and the offshore yuan saw a slight decrease, while the British pound experienced a small increase. In the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ether both saw gains. The yield on 10-year Treasuries, Germany’s 10-year yield, and Britain’s 10-year yield all advanced. In the commodities market, Brent crude saw a 1% increase, while spot gold fell by 0.2%.
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