Forex Market Today: Dollar Firms as Fed Meeting Begins, US Data and Earnings Take Focus

Federal Reserve • Dollar • Gold • Forex • Stocks • Bitcoin • Oil • Treasury Yields • Earnings

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Fed Week Moves Into Gear

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today as traders position for Wednesday’s interest-rate decision and Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

A rate hold remains the dominant expectation.

But markets are increasingly focused on what happens after October.

September inflation was stronger than policymakers would like, US business activity remains resilient and energy prices are still elevated.

That means the possibility of another rate increase later in the year remains very much alive.

The US Dollar strengthened during Monday’s session as traders reduced some bearish positions ahead of the Fed.

Wall Street also recovered, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 leading gains after last week’s technology-sector volatility.

Gold recovered above the important $4,000 region as Oil prices eased slightly and Treasury yields remained close to 5%.

Bitcoin, however, remains under pressure around the $80,000 area.

Before tomorrow’s Fed decision, today’s US durable-goods, housing and consumer-confidence reports give markets one final opportunity to reassess the strength of the American economy.

❓ Question of the Day

Will today’s US data strengthen the case for another Fed hike later this year?

Durable-goods orders, consumer confidence and housing data could influence Dollar and Treasury-yield expectations before tomorrow’s policy decision.

📌 Key Market Highlights

• Federal Reserve:
  The FOMC’s two-day meeting begins today, with the policy decision due Wednesday.
• Dollar:
  DXY strengthened toward 102 as traders positioned for the Fed.
• Gold:
  Bullion recovered above $4,000 after last week’s sharp correction.
• Oil:
  Crude prices eased from recent highs, but geopolitical supply risk remains elevated.
• Bitcoin:
  BTC remains near $80K as crypto continues to track global risk sentiment.
• Stocks:
  The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all closed higher Monday.
• US data:
  Durable Goods, housing data, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing arrive today.
• Earnings:
  Coca-Cola, Boeing, PayPal and SoFi report before the open, while Visa and Seagate are among the names reporting later.

⚠️ TRADER ALERT: DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME

Europe moved clocks back on October 25 while most of the US and Canada change on November 1, so check your broker platform and economic-calendar times carefully this week.

📈 Wall Street Rebounds

US equities started the week on a stronger note.

The S&P 500 gained around 0.7%.

The Nasdaq Composite rose approximately 0.8%.

The Dow added around 0.3%.

The Nasdaq 100 gained more than 1%, recovering part of last week’s technology-led decline.

Investors are now preparing for an extraordinary concentration of earnings reports later in the week.

Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday.

🇩🇪 German Business Confidence Improves

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 90.2 in October from 89.9 in September.

Business expectations improved noticeably.

Manufacturing sentiment also strengthened, while the services sector remained more mixed.

The report supports the idea that Europe’s largest economy is gradually recovering even as energy costs and restrictive monetary policy remain significant risks.

🇺🇸 US Manufacturing Remains Resilient

The Dallas Fed’s October manufacturing survey showed factory activity continuing to expand, although the pace slowed.

Production remained positive, but new orders lost momentum compared with September.

That fits the broader US picture: growth remains resilient, but higher borrowing costs are beginning to create uneven pressure across different parts of the economy.

The Federal Reserve begins its October meeting today.

The decision arrives Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

Markets overwhelmingly expect policymakers to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%.

The debate is therefore focused on December.

September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year.

Producer-price inflation was even hotter.

Oil prices remain elevated.

And last week’s Flash PMIs showed strong US manufacturing and services activity alongside renewed price pressure.

These conditions give the Fed little reason to declare the inflation battle finished.

A hold tomorrow could therefore still be accompanied by hawkish language suggesting that another hike remains possible in December.

8:30 a.m. ET — Durable Goods Orders

September Durable Goods Orders are expected to rebound strongly after little change in August.

Core orders excluding transportation are expected to show more moderate growth.

Strong capital-goods demand would reinforce the argument that US business investment remains resilient despite high borrowing costs.

9:00 a.m. ET — US House Prices

FHFA and Case-Shiller housing-price data will provide another look at how high mortgage rates are affecting the US property market.

Recent housing activity has weakened, but prices have remained relatively resilient because housing supply remains restricted.

10:00 a.m. ET — Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is expected to remain weak near 80 after September’s 81.9 reading.

Consumer confidence has been pressured by high prices, expensive borrowing costs and concerns about household finances.

A significant surprise could affect both growth expectations and Treasury yields.

10:00 a.m. ET — New Home Sales

New Home Sales are expected to decline from August’s 684,000 annualized pace toward roughly 650,000.

Another weak housing figure would confirm that elevated mortgage rates continue to restrict residential demand.

10:00 a.m. ET — Richmond Fed Manufacturing

The regional factory survey follows Monday’s Dallas Fed report.

Markets will look for confirmation that US manufacturing continues expanding heading into the final quarter.

Dollar levels:

Support: 101.50 / 101.20   |   Resistance: 102.30 / 102.60

🇪🇺 EUR/USD: Dollar Strength Meets Improving German Sentiment

EUR/USD has slipped back toward the 1.118 region as the Dollar firms.

Monday’s German Ifo report was encouraging.

Business sentiment improved for a sixth consecutive month and manufacturing expectations strengthened.

However, Thursday’s ECB decision remains the bigger event for the Euro.

Support: 1.1140 / 1.1100   |   Resistance: 1.1225 / 1.1280

🇬🇧 GBP/USD: UK Budget Risk Moves Closer

Sterling remains around the mid-1.33 region.

Tomorrow’s UK Autumn Budget could become one of the week’s most important non-central-bank events.

Markets will focus on borrowing plans, spending, taxation and the government’s fiscal assumptions.

The backdrop remains complicated because UK inflation recently accelerated while activity data improved.

Support: 1.3290 / 1.3230   |   Resistance: 1.3400 / 1.3460

🇦🇺 AUD/USD: Inflation Comes Next

AUD/USD remains around the 0.70 region ahead of Australian inflation data.

A strong CPI report would reinforce expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia must remain restrictive.

The Aussie is also sensitive to global equity sentiment and commodity prices.

Support: 0.6980 / 0.6940   |   Resistance: 0.7050 / 0.7100

🇳🇿 NZD/USD: RBNZ Decision Approaches

NZD/USD remains under pressure ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision.

Markets expect a rate increase from 2.75% to 3.00%.

Because the hike is already widely anticipated, the biggest move may come from the RBNZ’s guidance on future policy.

Support: 0.5650 / 0.5600   |   Resistance: 0.5730 / 0.5780

🇨🇦 USD/CAD: Oil and BoC Expectations Pull in Opposite Directions

USD/CAD remains near 1.40.

The Canadian Dollar has support from elevated Oil prices.

At the same time, uncertainty remains around Wednesday’s Bank of Canada decision.

Markets see meaningful risk of another rate increase as policymakers balance high headline inflation against softer underlying measures.

Support: 1.3970 / 1.3920   |   Resistance: 1.4070 / 1.4120

🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Fed and BoJ Create a Two-Sided Risk

USD/JPY has returned toward the upper-157 region as the Dollar strengthens.

The pair faces two major central-bank events this week.

The Fed decision arrives tomorrow.

The Bank of Japan follows later in the week.

Japan’s underlying inflation remains above target, keeping another BoJ increase later this year possible.

Support: 156.50 / 156.00   |   Resistance: 158.00 / 159.00

🥇 Gold Reclaims the $4,000 Area

Gold recovered on Monday after last week’s severe selloff.

Bullion rose back above $4,000 as Oil prices eased and some investors returned after the recent correction.

Gold remains in a difficult position ahead of the Fed.

Lower Treasury yields could offer support.

But persistent inflation and expectations for another rate hike later this year increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.

The next major test comes tomorrow with the Fed and then Thursday’s PCE inflation report.

Support: $3,975 / $3,950   |   Resistance: $4,050 / $4,100

🥈 Silver

Silver has recovered alongside Gold and remains near the mid-$50 region.

The metal remains sensitive to both interest rates and industrial-growth expectations.

Support: $52 / $50   |   Resistance: $55.50 / $57

🛢️ Oil Eases, But Supply Risk Has Not Disappeared

Oil prices pulled back on Monday and again during early Tuesday trading.

WTI remains around the low-$100 region while Brent is still close to multi-month highs.

Hopes for diplomatic progress involving Iran have reduced some immediate supply fears.

However, continued regional attacks mean geopolitical risk remains high.

The Oil market remains one of the biggest inflation risks facing the Fed, ECB, BoC and other central banks.

₿ Bitcoin Struggles Near $80K

Bitcoin remains close to $80,000 despite Monday’s recovery in US technology stocks.

Crypto continues to respond heavily to liquidity conditions and interest-rate expectations.

That makes tomorrow’s Fed statement particularly important.

A hawkish message could keep pressure on Bitcoin.

A more balanced Fed combined with lower yields could improve risk appetite.

Support: $79K / $77K   |   Resistance: $82K / $84K

📉 US Treasury Yields Hold Around a Critical Area

The US 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5%.

That level continues to influence almost every major asset class.

Higher yields support the Dollar but create valuation pressure for technology stocks, Gold and crypto.

Lower yields improve financial conditions but can also indicate concern about future economic growth.

Today’s data and tomorrow’s Fed communication could determine whether the 10-year yield breaks decisively away from the 5% region.

💻 Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 gained more than 1% Monday and moved back toward the 29,300 region.

Technology remains highly sensitive to yields and AI-spending concerns.

Microsoft and Alphabet earnings tomorrow evening could determine whether the recovery continues.

Support: 29,000 / 28,700   |   Resistance: 29,500 / 30,000

📊 S&P 500

The S&P 500 climbed to around 7,677 Monday.

The broader market benefited from improved technology sentiment, but the Fed and earnings remain the dominant risks.

Support: 7,600 / 7,550   |   Resistance: 7,720 / 7,800

🏭 US30

The Dow also moved higher Monday.

Today, Boeing, Coca-Cola, UPS and other major industrial and consumer names provide another look at the health of the US economy.

Support: 52,000 / 51,600   |   Resistance: 52,700 / 53,200

Before the US Open

• Coca-Cola — consumer demand and pricing
• Boeing — aircraft deliveries, production and cash flow
• PayPal — digital payments and consumer spending
• SoFi — lending and consumer credit
• UPS — freight volumes and economic activity
• Freeport-McMoRan — copper demand and commodity markets
• Novartis — global healthcare demand

After the US Close

• Visa — global card spending and consumer activity
• Seagate — AI and data-storage demand
• Robinhood — retail trading and crypto activity
• NXP Semiconductors — chips, automotive and industrial demand

Wednesday brings several major events within hours of one another.

• Australian CPI
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision
• UK Autumn Budget
• Bank of Canada interest-rate decision
• Federal Reserve interest-rate decision
• Kevin Warsh press conference
• Microsoft earnings
• Alphabet earnings

That combination could generate significant volatility across currencies, Gold, bonds, equities and crypto.

🎯 TraderFactor Bottom Line

Dollar: Firms as traders prepare for tomorrow’s Fed decision.

Gold: Recovering above the major $4,000 area.

Oil: Pulls back but remains an important inflation risk.

Bitcoin: Still struggling around the $80K region.

Stocks: Recover as traders prepare for major Big Tech earnings.

US data: Durable Goods, housing and confidence can influence Fed expectations today.

Today’s data may move markets, but tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision remains the event capable of resetting the outlook for the Dollar, yields, Gold, stocks and crypto.

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