Forex Market Today: Dollar Slips as UK CPI Hits 3.5%, Gold Near $4,100 and Jobless Claims Loom
US Dollar • Gold • GBP/USD • Jobless Claims • Bitcoin • Oil • Treasury Yields • Earnings • Japan CPI
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Dollar Momentum Fades as Markets Turn Back to Growth
Thursday begins with markets digesting a surprisingly busy mix of inflation, earnings and cross-asset signals.
The Dollar Index has slipped back toward the 101.5–101.7 region.
Sterling remains close to 1.34 after UK inflation accelerated sharply in September.
Gold is still defending the psychologically important $4,100 area.
Bitcoin has climbed back toward $85,000.
And the US 10-year Treasury yield has eased toward 5.1%.
The market is no longer reacting to one single macro story.
Inflation remains too high for central banks to relax comfortably, but signs of weaker housing and slower activity are beginning to appear at the same time.
Today, the next piece of that puzzle comes from the US labour market.
Initial Jobless Claims may be the most important scheduled US release before Friday’s Flash PMIs.
❓ Question of the Day
Can the Dollar hold above 101.5 if US jobless claims begin showing clearer labour-market weakness?
Inflation argues for restrictive rates, but weakening housing and any deterioration in jobs would make the Federal Reserve’s October decision increasingly complicated.
📌 Key Market Highlights
- US Dollar:
DXY has slipped toward the 101.5–101.7 region as Treasury yields ease. - Sterling:
GBP/USD is holding close to 1.34 after UK CPI accelerated to 3.5%. - UK Inflation:
Core CPI rose to 2.8%, while services inflation increased to 3.7%. - Gold:
Bullion remains around the $4,100–$4,150 region as lower yields compete with persistent inflation. - Bonds:
The US 10-year yield is hovering around 5.1%, keeping rate-sensitive assets on alert. - Bitcoin:
BTC has recovered toward $84K–$85K alongside improved technology-sector sentiment. - New Zealand:
Q3 inflation slowed to 3.7%, slightly below expectations, but remains above the RBNZ target range. - Oil:
WTI remains around the high-$90 region after another larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories. - Stocks:
P&G, Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin, Blackstone, Honeywell and Valero report today, followed later by Western Digital and Newmont.
What Changed Since Yesterday?
🇬🇧 UK Inflation Accelerated to 3.5%
UK headline CPI rose to 3.5% year-on-year in September, up sharply from 3.1% in August.
Monthly CPI increased 0.4%.
Core CPI accelerated to 2.8% from 2.6%.
Services inflation also rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.
Transport, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution.
That matters because the Bank of England is already closely watching wages and services inflation.
Tuesday’s resilient employment figures followed by hotter inflation make it harder for the Bank of England to signal an early shift toward easier policy.
🇳🇿 New Zealand Inflation Cools — But Not Enough to Remove Rate-Hike Risk
New Zealand inflation slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in the third quarter from 4.1%.
Quarterly CPI rose 0.7%.
Both figures were slightly below market expectations.
The New Zealand Dollar initially slipped after the report.
However, inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1%–3% target range.
The RBNZ meets next week.
The data may reduce some urgency, but it does not eliminate expectations that the central bank could tighten policy again.
🛢️ US Crude Inventories Fell More Than Expected
US commercial crude inventories fell by approximately 3.06 million barrels.
Markets had expected a decline of only around 100,000 barrels.
That followed the previous week’s massive 8.56-million-barrel draw.
Gasoline inventories also declined.
The inventory picture remains supportive for Oil at a time when geopolitical risks are already keeping energy markets tight.
📈 Technology Stocks Rebounded Again
Wall Street finished Wednesday higher as enthusiasm returned to technology and AI-related shares.
The Nasdaq 100 also recovered toward the 29,900 region after last week’s sharp technology correction.
The question now is whether earnings can keep that recovery alive.
💻 Overnight Earnings: Meta, Tesla and IBM
Meta: Revenue Beats as AI Spending Climbs
Meta reported quarterly revenue of approximately $64.6 billion, above expectations.
Reported earnings were affected by a large legal charge, but underlying earnings were stronger.
Meta guided fourth-quarter revenue to roughly $73 billion to $76 billion.
The company also narrowed its annual capital-expenditure forecast to around $135 billion to $145 billion.
The market continues to reward strong AI-driven revenue growth, but the enormous cost of infrastructure investment remains an important risk.
Tesla: Earnings Beat but Expectations Remain Extremely High
Tesla reported adjusted earnings of approximately $0.48 per share, slightly ahead of expectations.
Revenue came in around $28.05 billion.
The company also reduced its full-year capital-spending forecast.
Investors remain focused on Full Self-Driving, robotaxis, Optimus, vehicle margins and future AI spending.
The immediate share-price reaction was volatile, reflecting the extremely high expectations already embedded in Tesla’s valuation.
IBM: Revenue and Adjusted Earnings Beat
IBM reported adjusted earnings of approximately $2.95 per share.
Revenue rose to around $17.1 billion.
Software remained the strongest part of the business.
IBM also increased its software growth expectations.
The report supports the idea that enterprise AI spending remains firm even as investors become more selective about technology valuations.
🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims Become Today’s Main Macro Test
Initial Jobless Claims are expected at approximately 200,000.
The previous reading was 199,000.
Continuing Claims are expected around 1.72 million, compared with 1.71 million previously.
Claims remain historically low.
That suggests employers are still reluctant to cut workers aggressively.
But today’s number matters because housing data have already begun showing clearer signs of strain.
If jobless claims also begin climbing, markets could start questioning whether restrictive rates are finally spreading from housing into employment.
How Jobless Claims Could Move Markets
Claims Below 200K
A very low number would reinforce the idea that the US labour market remains resilient. That could support Treasury yields and the Dollar while limiting Gold’s upside.
Claims Around 200K
A broadly expected reading would probably leave markets focused on earnings, Friday’s PMIs and next week’s FOMC decision.
Claims Rise Sharply
A clear deterioration could pressure the Dollar and Treasury yields while supporting Gold, although stocks could react negatively if investors begin worrying about a deeper slowdown.
📊 Forex Market Today: Current Market Snapshot
Approximate early-Thursday reference levels. Prices move continuously and can vary across brokers, exchanges and futures contracts.
| Market | Reference | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | ~101.5–101.7 | Yields / Jobless Claims |
| Gold | ~$4,115–$4,150 | Yields / inflation |
| EUR/USD | ~1.1233 | Dollar / Friday PMIs |
| GBP/USD | ~1.3395 | Hot UK CPI |
| AUD/USD | ~0.7030 | Risk sentiment / PMIs |
| NZD/USD | ~0.5708 | NZ CPI / RBNZ |
| USD/CAD | ~1.4042 | Oil / BoC |
| USD/JPY | ~158.2 | US yields / Japan CPI |
| USD/CHF | ~0.8244 | Risk sentiment |
| Bitcoin | ~$84K–$85K | Risk appetite / yields |
| WTI | ~$97–$98 | Inventories / geopolitics |
| US 10Y Yield | ~5.10% | Labour / Fed expectations |
| US500 | ~7,700–7,760 | Earnings / yields |
| NAS100 | ~29,800–30,000 | AI / earnings |
| US30 | ~52,400–52,700 | Industrials / earnings |
💵 Dollar Index: 101.5 Becomes the Level to Watch
The Dollar has failed to hold the full advance generated by last week’s hot US CPI and PPI reports.
DXY is now trading close to the mid-101 region.
Lower Treasury yields are one reason.
Weak US housing data are another.
The Dollar still has the support of a Federal Reserve that remains concerned about inflation.
But markets are increasingly asking whether another rate increase could cause unnecessary damage to interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy.
Dollar focus:
Below 101.50, attention could shift toward 101.20 and 101.00. A recovery above 102.00 would suggest Dollar buyers are beginning to regain control.
🇬🇧 GBP/USD: Sterling Holds Near 1.34 After Hot Inflation
GBP/USD remains around the 1.339 region.
Yesterday’s CPI report strengthened the case for restrictive Bank of England policy.
Headline inflation rose to 3.5%.
Core inflation increased to 2.8%.
Services inflation moved to 3.7%.
Those numbers arrived just one day after unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.7%.
Together, the releases present a much more difficult inflation picture for the Bank of England.
Support: 1.3340 / 1.3300 | Resistance: 1.3420 / 1.3480
🇪🇺 EUR/USD: Dollar Weakness Helps the Euro, but Friday Is the Bigger Test
EUR/USD is holding above 1.12 as the Dollar loses momentum.
Today’s Eurozone Consumer Confidence report is unlikely to rival Friday’s Flash PMIs in market impact.
Consumer confidence is expected to remain deeply negative near -17.
The bigger issue for the Euro is whether Friday’s French, German and Eurozone PMIs show that economic activity is holding up despite higher energy costs and restrictive financial conditions.
For now, 1.1200 and 1.1160 remain important support areas.
Resistance sits around 1.1260 and 1.1300.
🇳🇿 NZD/USD: Inflation Cools but RBNZ Still Faces a Problem
NZD/USD is trading around 0.570.
New Zealand inflation eased more than expected in Q3.
That initially pressured the currency.
However, inflation at 3.7% remains above the RBNZ’s target range.
Energy prices also create a risk that inflation could accelerate again during the final quarter.
Markets therefore remain focused on next week’s RBNZ decision rather than treating today’s softer CPI as an all-clear signal.
🇦🇺 AUD/USD: Risk Appetite and PMIs in Focus
AUD/USD is trading close to 0.703.
The Australian Dollar has benefited from improving risk sentiment and the recovery in global technology shares.
China’s better Q3 GDP data earlier in the week also provide some support.
But weak Chinese investment remains an important concern.
Australian Flash PMI data arrive later in the global session and may provide an early indication of October business conditions.
🇨🇦 USD/CAD: Oil Support Offsets Softer Canadian Core Inflation
USD/CAD remains near 1.404.
Canada’s headline CPI increased earlier this week, but underlying measures softened.
Oil remains an important source of support for the Canadian Dollar.
The latest US inventory report showed another substantial crude draw.
With the Bank of Canada meeting next week, USD/CAD is likely to remain sensitive to both energy prices and changing rate expectations.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Japan CPI Is the Next Major Test
USD/JPY remains around 158.
The recent decline in US Treasury yields has prevented the pair from extending much further toward 159.
Later today, markets turn toward Japan’s national inflation figures.
Core inflation is expected to accelerate from 1.7% to approximately 2.1%.
If inflation is stronger than expected, speculation around further Bank of Japan tightening could increase.
Support sits around 157.60 and 157.10, while 158.80 and 159.50 remain the main resistance zones.
🥇 Gold Still Defends the $4,100 Area
Gold remains around the low-$4,100 region.
The metal continues to trade between two powerful macro forces.
Falling Treasury yields are supportive.
Persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty are also supportive over the longer term.
But a Federal Reserve that remains willing to keep rates restrictive limits Gold’s ability to produce another clean breakout.
The $4,100 region remains the immediate psychological floor.
Support: $4,100 / $4,075 | Resistance: $4,145 / $4,175 / $4,200
₿ Bitcoin Recovers Toward $85K
Bitcoin climbed more than 2% on Wednesday and traded near $84,800.
The move came alongside improving equity-market sentiment and renewed enthusiasm for technology and AI shares.
Lower Treasury yields also help liquidity-sensitive assets.
However, inflation and Oil remain potential obstacles.
A sustained break above $85,000 would improve short-term momentum.
Support: $83K / $81.5K | Resistance: $85K / $86.5K
🛢️ Oil: Inventory Draw Keeps Supply Concerns Alive
WTI remains around the $97–$98 region on the active futures contract.
US crude inventories fell by more than 3 million barrels last week.
That was considerably larger than expected.
Oil remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and diplomacy.
But the macro significance is straightforward.
The longer energy prices remain elevated, the harder it becomes for central banks to declare victory over inflation.
📉 US 10-Year Yield Holds Near 5.1%
The US 10-year Treasury yield has eased back toward 5.1%.
That is below last week’s highs but remains historically restrictive.
Today’s jobless claims could determine whether yields continue lower.
Strong labour data could push yields higher again as investors maintain expectations for restrictive Fed policy.
Weak labour data could encourage another move below 5.1%.
That makes the bond market one of today’s most important drivers for the Dollar, Gold, Bitcoin and technology shares.
📅 Today’s Economic Calendar
🇺🇸 8:30 a.m. ET — Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 200K
Previous: 199K
This is today’s most important scheduled US macro release.
🇺🇸 8:30 a.m. ET — Continuing Jobless Claims
Forecast: approximately 1.72 million
Previous: approximately 1.71 million
🇺🇸 10:00 a.m. ET — US Leading Index
Markets expect another small monthly decline.
The index remains useful for assessing whether weakening housing conditions are spreading more broadly through the economy.
🇪🇺 10:00 a.m. ET — Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Forecast: around -17
Previous: -16.5
🇺🇸 11:00 a.m. ET — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
The survey provides another regional reading of US factory conditions.
Its inflation and new-orders components may be especially useful ahead of Friday’s national Flash PMI.
🇯🇵 Later Today — Japan CPI
Core CPI forecast: approximately 2.1%
Previous: 1.7%
A strong number could strengthen expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue normalizing policy.
💼 Today’s Earnings Calendar
Thursday’s earnings calendar is much broader than yesterday’s technology-heavy session.
Today’s reports cover consumer spending, transport, defense, energy, finance and technology.
Before the US Open
Procter & Gamble
Forecast EPS: $1.88
Forecast Revenue: $22.79B
Union Pacific
Forecast EPS: $3.47
Forecast Revenue: $7.14B
Blackstone
Forecast EPS: $1.29
Forecast Revenue: $3.35B
Lockheed Martin
Forecast EPS: $7.52
Forecast Revenue: $20.48B
Valero Energy
Forecast EPS: $20.90
Forecast Revenue: $43.36B
Comcast
Forecast EPS: $0.98
Forecast Revenue: $29.22B
Honeywell
Forecast EPS: $2.17
Forecast Revenue: $5.01B
Norfolk Southern
Forecast EPS: $3.48
Forecast Revenue: $3.47B
After the US Close
Western Digital
Forecast EPS: $4.08
Forecast Revenue: $4.14B
Newmont
Forecast EPS: $1.95
Forecast Revenue: $6.24B
Bloom Energy
Forecast EPS: $0.69
Forecast Revenue: $1.06B
Deckers Outdoor
Forecast EPS: $1.79
Forecast Revenue: $1.51B
Verisign
Forecast EPS: $2.46
Forecast Revenue: $440.6M
Why Today’s Earnings Matter for the Wider Market
Procter & Gamble can provide insight into household pricing power and consumer demand.
Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern offer a look at freight volumes and industrial activity.
Blackstone provides insight into credit markets, private assets and financing conditions.
Lockheed Martin reflects defense-sector demand.
Valero offers another perspective on refining margins and energy markets.
Western Digital will be important for the technology and data-center story.
Together, these reports provide a much broader picture of the economy than technology earnings alone.
📈 Stock Market Outlook: Can the Earnings Rally Continue?
The Nasdaq recovered strongly on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 also moved higher.
But futures are more cautious early Thursday as traders digest Meta and Tesla.
The market has now shifted from worrying about AI valuations to asking whether earnings growth can justify them.
That distinction is important.
A company can deliver strong revenue and still disappoint investors if capital spending rises even faster.
Meta is a good example.
Its core advertising business remains strong, but the cost of building AI infrastructure is enormous.
That same issue is likely to remain central across the technology sector.
💻 NAS100
The Nasdaq 100 recovered toward 29,900 on Wednesday.
A sustained move above 30,000 would strengthen the short-term recovery.
But another earnings-driven selloff could quickly return attention to 29,500 and 29,200.
Technology remains extremely sensitive to Treasury yields and guidance around AI spending.
📊 S&P 500
The S&P 500 remains close to recent highs around the 7,700 region.
Broader earnings strength outside technology would be particularly constructive.
A more diversified earnings rally would make the market less dependent on a small group of AI and mega-cap technology companies.
🏭 US30
The Dow has remained relatively resilient throughout the recent technology volatility.
Today’s industrial, transport and consumer earnings could make the index especially interesting.
Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, P&G and other large companies could influence the Dow’s sector rotation.
🌍 Tomorrow: Global Flash PMIs Take Over
Today’s labour data and earnings are important.
But Friday remains the week’s main global macro event.
Flash PMI reports arrive from Japan, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom and the United States.
US Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain strong around the mid-50s.
US Services PMI is expected to remain close to 58.
The most important detail may not be the headline activity number.
After hot CPI and PPI, markets will be watching whether PMI price components show inflation pressure continuing into October.
TraderFactor Support & Resistance Map
Approximate reference zones based on current market structure. Levels may shift following jobless claims, earnings or geopolitical headlines.
| Asset | Reference | Support | Resistance | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.5–101.7 | 101.50 / 101.20 | 102.00 / 102.30 | Jobless Claims |
| Gold | ~4115–4150 | 4100 / 4075 | 4145 / 4175 / 4200 | Yields / inflation |
| EUR/USD | 1.1233 | 1.1200 / 1.1160 | 1.1260 / 1.1300 | USD / PMIs |
| GBP/USD | 1.3395 | 1.3340 / 1.3300 | 1.3420 / 1.3480 | UK inflation |
| AUD/USD | 0.7030 | 0.6990 / 0.6960 | 0.7050 / 0.7090 | Risk / PMIs |
| NZD/USD | 0.5708 | 0.5680 / 0.5650 | 0.5730 / 0.5760 | NZ CPI / RBNZ |
| USD/CAD | 1.4042 | 1.4000 / 1.3960 | 1.4080 / 1.4120 | Oil / BoC |
| USD/JPY | 158.2 | 157.60 / 157.10 | 158.80 / 159.50 | Japan CPI |
| USD/CHF | 0.8244 | 0.8210 / 0.8180 | 0.8280 / 0.8320 | Risk sentiment |
| BTC/USD | ~84.8K | 83K / 81.5K | 85K / 86.5K | Risk / yields |
| WTI | ~97–98 | 96 / 94.50 | 100 / 102 | Supply / geopolitics |
| NAS100 | ~29.9K | 29,500 / 29,200 | 30,000 / 30,300 | Earnings / AI |
| US500 | ~7,700+ | 7,680 / 7,620 | 7,780 / 7,850 | Earnings / yields |
| US30 | ~52.5K | 52,000 / 51,600 | 52,800 / 53,200 | Industrial earnings |
🔗 Continue Your Research on TraderFactor
📘 Yesterday’s Market Report
Catch up on UK CPI, Gold near $4,100 and Wednesday’s major market themes.
📊 Weekly Market Outlook
Tomorrow’s global Flash PMIs remain the week’s broadest test of economic growth and inflation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the US Dollar weaker despite high inflation?
Treasury yields have eased and weak housing data are raising concerns about the impact of restrictive rates on economic growth.
Why is GBP/USD near 1.34?
UK labour data were resilient and September inflation accelerated to 3.5%, reinforcing expectations that Bank of England policy may remain restrictive.
Why is $4,100 important for Gold?
It has become a major psychological and technical reference area following Gold’s recent retreat from above $4,200.
Why do jobless claims matter today?
Markets want to know whether the weakness already visible in US housing is beginning to spread into employment.
What is the next major global event?
Friday’s Flash PMIs from Japan, Europe, the UK and the United States will provide the clearest early reading of October business conditions.
Final Market Outlook
Thursday’s market is about the growing tension between inflation and economic resilience.
UK inflation accelerated to 3.5%.
New Zealand inflation cooled, but remains above target.
US housing has weakened sharply.
Oil inventories continue to fall.
Treasury yields remain near 5.1%.
And the Dollar is struggling to hold the gains produced by last week’s hot US inflation reports.
Today’s US jobless claims provide the next test.
If claims remain close to 200,000, the labour market will still look relatively resilient.
That would allow the Federal Reserve to remain focused primarily on inflation.
If claims rise more significantly, the debate could begin shifting toward growth and employment risk.
The corporate side of the market is equally important.
Meta, Tesla and IBM have already shown that companies can produce solid results while still facing intense scrutiny over spending and future guidance.
Today’s reports from P&G, Lockheed Martin, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Valero and others will broaden that picture beyond technology.
The market is asking a bigger question now: can economic growth and corporate earnings remain strong enough to justify restrictive interest rates while inflation stays elevated?
🎯 TraderFactor Bottom Line
Dollar:
DXY is struggling around 101.5–101.7.
Sterling:
Hot UK inflation keeps GBP/USD close to 1.34.
Gold:
$4,100 remains the key psychological support.
NZD:
Inflation cooled, but RBNZ tightening risk remains.
Bitcoin:
Risk appetite has pushed BTC back toward $85K.
Oil:
Another inventory draw keeps supply risk in focus.
Bonds:
US 10-year yields remain close to 5.1%.
Stocks:
Today’s earnings calendar broadens from technology into consumer, industrial, financial and energy companies.
Today belongs to jobless claims and earnings. Tomorrow, the focus shifts decisively to global Flash PMIs.
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About the Author
Zahari Rangelov
Head of Business Development, TraderFactor
Zahari specializes in broker analysis, regulatory research, and trading education
.
With over a decade of experience, he helps traders navigate online brokers, technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term strategies, risk management and trading psychology.
A respected mentor and speaker, Zahari regularly leads webinars and seminars covering market sentiment, speculative instruments and automated trading systems.
Reviewed By
Alex Kanyi, Head of Compliance at TraderFactor
“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”
Last Updated:
October 2026
Risk Disclaimer:
This report is for general information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex, commodities, cryptocurrencies, bonds and equity indices can move rapidly following economic releases, earnings, geopolitical developments and changes in interest-rate expectations. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.
