In Forex Market Today, oil falls while gold rises and the dollar weakens as markets react to reports of a possible 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension.

Forex Market Today: Oil Falls, Dollar Weakens, Gold Surges as US-Iran Ceasefire Hopes Shake Markets

TraderFactor Market Report May 29,2026

Global markets are experiencing heightened volatility as traders react to reports suggesting a possible 60-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Risk sentiment improved after reports indicated that both sides are close to a tentative deal, reducing fears of immediate military escalation in the Middle East. Oil prices are falling as geopolitical risk premiums ease, while gold and equities gain momentum following softer US inflation data. The US dollar remains under pressure after the latest Core PCE inflation report came in below expectations, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve could adopt a less aggressive policy stance in coming months.

Market Analysis

Currencies / Forex

Currency markets remain highly reactive as traders adjust positions following softer US inflation data and shifting geopolitical sentiment surrounding Iran-US negotiations. The weaker-than-expected Core PCE inflation report increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow future tightening pressure.

At the same time, improved risk sentiment linked to ceasefire optimism is reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets, weakening the US dollar while supporting higher-yielding and risk-sensitive currencies.

EURUSD

EURUSD continues gaining momentum as softer US inflation data weakens the dollar and improves risk appetite across global markets. Traders are also monitoring upcoming German inflation data for additional direction.

If German CPI comes in stronger than expected, the euro could receive further support as markets reassess European Central Bank expectations.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD remains supported as the weaker US dollar improves bullish momentum for sterling. Markets are now focusing on comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey for clues regarding future UK monetary policy.

Any hawkish comments regarding inflation or interest rates could strengthen the pound further against the dollar.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD continues pushing higher as improving market sentiment supports commodity-linked currencies. Lower US inflation expectations and easing geopolitical fears are helping boost risk-sensitive assets.

The Australian dollar also remains sensitive to broader China-related growth sentiment and commodity market performance.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD is strengthening as traders rotate back into higher-risk currencies following softer US inflation data and reduced geopolitical tensions.

Improved market sentiment and weaker dollar flows are helping support bullish momentum for the New Zealand dollar in the short term.

USDJPY

USDJPY remains elevated after weaker Tokyo CPI data reduced expectations for aggressive Bank of Japan tightening. Lower Japanese inflation weakened the yen during Friday trading.

However, softer US inflation and weaker dollar conditions could limit additional upside momentum in the pair if risk sentiment continues improving.

USDCHF

USDCHF remains under pressure as declining safe-haven demand reduces support for the US dollar. Traders are also watching broader European market sentiment for additional direction.

A continued improvement in geopolitical conditions could keep pressure on defensive currency positioning.

USDCAD

USDCAD remains volatile as falling oil prices weaken the Canadian dollar while softer US inflation limits broader dollar strength.

Markets are also preparing for Canada’s GDP report, which could significantly impact short-term CAD volatility.

Crypto / Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains relatively stable as broader market sentiment improves following softer US inflation data and easing geopolitical concerns. Reduced fears of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening are supporting risk assets across financial markets.

The cryptocurrency market continues attracting cautious optimism as traders search for alternative growth opportunities during periods of improving market sentiment.

Gold

Gold prices continue rising after softer Core PCE inflation data weakened the US dollar and lowered Treasury yields. Lower inflation expectations have improved demand for precious metals as traders reduce expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve policy.

At the same time, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran-US situation continues supporting underlying safe-haven demand for gold despite improving market sentiment.

Stocks / Equities

Global equities are trading higher as softer US inflation data and ceasefire optimism improve investor sentiment. Traders are rotating back into growth sectors after recent geopolitical concerns triggered defensive positioning.

Lower inflation expectations are also increasing optimism that central banks may adopt a less restrictive monetary stance, supporting broader equity market recovery.

NAS100

The NAS100 remains strong as technology stocks benefit from lower Treasury yields and improving investor sentiment. Growth sectors continue outperforming as traders react positively to softer inflation data.

SP500

The SP500 is extending gains as broader market confidence improves following the latest inflation report and easing geopolitical concerns.

Defensive positioning is gradually easing as traders return to risk-sensitive sectors.

US30

The US30 continues trading higher as industrial and cyclical sectors recover on improved economic sentiment and reduced geopolitical risk premiums.

Geopolitics

Markets remain focused on developments surrounding a possible US-Iran ceasefire extension after reports suggested that both sides are close to reaching a tentative agreement. However, uncertainty remains as the proposed deal reportedly still requires approval from former US President Donald Trump.

Vice President JD Vance also stated that the US and Iran are “very close” to an agreement but “not there yet,” reinforcing market caution despite improving sentiment. Traders remain highly sensitive to any headlines regarding ceasefire negotiations or potential renewed military escalation.

Economic Calendar

US Core PCE Inflation Data

Yesterday’s Core PCE inflation report came in at 0.2% versus expectations of 0.3%, weakening the US dollar while boosting gold and equities.

The Core PCE Price Index is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator because it measures underlying consumer inflation trends while excluding volatile food and energy prices. Softer inflation increases expectations for future rate cuts or less aggressive monetary tightening.

Tokyo CPI y/y

Tokyo CPI inflation came in at 1.3% compared to 1.5% expected, signaling weaker inflationary pressure in Japan.

The softer inflation report weakened the Japanese yen as traders reduced expectations for aggressive Bank of Japan policy tightening.

German Preliminary CPI m/m

Markets are watching Germany’s preliminary inflation report closely, as stronger inflation could support the euro and influence European Central Bank policy expectations.

BOE Governor Bailey Speech

Traders will monitor comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey for signals regarding future UK interest rate policy and inflation concerns.

Any hawkish tone could provide additional support for the British pound.

Canada GDP m/m

Canada’s monthly GDP report could create volatility for CAD pairs, especially amid ongoing weakness in oil prices.

FOMC Member Speeches

Several Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak later today. Traders will closely analyze whether their remarks lean hawkish or dovish following the softer PCE inflation report.

Final Outlook

Markets remain highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments and inflation expectations as traders navigate shifting risk sentiment. Reports of a possible US-Iran ceasefire extension have improved overall market confidence, reducing safe-haven demand for the US dollar and oil.

However, uncertainty remains elevated as traders await official confirmation regarding the agreement. Softer US inflation data has also shifted focus toward future Federal Reserve policy expectations, supporting gold, equities, and risk-sensitive currencies.

Current Market Bias

📉 USD — Bearish
📉 Oil — Bearish
📈 Gold — Bullish
📈 Equities — Bullish
📈 EURUSD — Bullish
📈 GBPUSD — Bullish
📈 AUDUSD — Bullish
📈 NZDUSD — Bullish
📉 USDJPY — Neutral to Bearish
📈 Bitcoin — Bullish / Stable

Author Details:

Phyllis Wangui
Senior Market Analyst, TraderFactor

Phyllis Wangui is a seasoned financial markets analyst with over a decade of experience in forex and CFD brokerage evaluation. Specializing in regulatory compliance and risk assessment, she leads the TraderFactor reviews team in delivering transparent, data-driven broker breakdowns that help retail traders navigate complex offshore and Tier-1 trading environments.

Reviewed by Alex Kanyi

Head of Compliance | TraderFactor

“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”

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 Last Updated: May 2026

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