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Investors Expectations Ahead of BOJ’s Monetary Statement

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Investors and traders eagerly await the announcement of the BoJ Interest Rates Decision as it provides valuable insight into the future direction of the JPY.

It is important to keep an eye on this announcement and stay informed about the BoJ’s monetary policy decisions.

Investors have recently become more skeptical of potential policy changes at the Bank of Japan, but this uncertainty has ironically allowed Governor Kazuo Ueda to make unexpected moves without causing too much concern.

Speculation about adjustments in yield targets had been mounting since late 2020, and an extra sense of caution caused by these doubts until now give BOJ a window for swift action.

With no sign of a major shift from BOJ Governor Ueda, traders anticipate policy tweaks to occur in June or July.

As evidence of this confidence, the 10-year government bond yield and interest rate swap markets have seen an unprecedented convergence since January; narrowing eight months later to only 40 basis points apart!

Japanese investors have quietly backed away from short selling and forex trading, resulting in a surprising calm on the market – creating an unexpected yet timely window of opportunity for the Bank of Japan to act.

As markets anticipate a shift in policy from the Bank of Japan, analysts are predicting that policymakers may take advantage of this opportunity to change yield curve control by widening or moving the 10-year yield target band. 

Alternatively, more radical measures such as abandoning targets altogether have been suggested.

However many sources state it is unlikely there will be any changes made at all and most economists polled believe no policy alterations will occur until June at least.

Have Hedge Funds Retreated?

Investors are confident that the time for Japan to come out of its years-long monetary policy experiment has arrived, as evidenced by soaring inflation and robust wage increases.

Despite warnings from the Bank Of Japan (BOJ), investors have risked it all with a dangerous trade: ‘short selling’ 10-year bonds which had been kept above market value via BOJ intervention.

The stakes couldn’t be higher in this high risk game – will they make a fortune or become another victim of “the widowmaker”?

Trading made simple by Skilling

Despite the immense cost of preserving its yield cap, Japanese investors have largely given up shorting JGBs.

After the BOJ’s March meeting, foreigners made an unprecedented weekly purchase in these bonds and closing shorts helped narrow differences between futures’ implied yields and cash yields.

Hedge funds who challenged the Bank of Japan’s policy have retreated from global bond markets, allowing a rally that has brought Japanese yields closer to the 0.5% cap set by BOJ now at only 0.455%.

Bond traders are watching closely as ten-year interest rate swaps sit slightly higher than cash rates at an impressive .64%.

As the Bank of Japan ponders potential changes in their policy, Ueda has advised that now is not yet the right time to make these adjustments.

Strategist Naka Matsuzawa believes it will be a careful balancing act between introducing alterations and keeping stakeholders adequately informed; without any surprises along the way.

BoJ Interest Rate Decision has significant implications for the Japanese economy and the value of the JPY. A hawkish interest rate decision is usually seen as positive for the JPY as it suggests that the Bank of Japan has confidence in the economy’s inflationary outlook, which could lead to long-term economic growth.

n the other hand, if the BoJ has a dovish view and decides to maintain or cut the current interest rates, this could be seen as negative for the JPY, creating a bearish sentiment in the market.

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Author

  • Zahari Rangelov

    Zahari Rangelov is an experienced professional Forex trader and trading mentor with knowledge in technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management and diversification. He has been involved in the foreign exchange markets since 2005, when he opened his first live account in 2007. Currently, Zahari is the Head of Sales & Business Development at TraderFactor's London branch. He provides lectures during webinars and seminars for traders on topics such as; Psychology of market participants’ moods, Investments & speculation with different financial instruments and Automated Expert Advisors & signal providers. Zahari’s success lies in his application of research-backed techniques and practices that have helped him become a successful forex trader, a mentor to many traders, and a respected authority figure within the trading community.