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U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Release

Investor Expects Before US Nonfarm Payrolls

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Wondering when the United States Nonfarm Payrolls is taking place? Mark your calendars for Friday, May 5th at 12:30 GMT.

As for the forecast, the consensus is for a total of 179K nonfarm payrolls, with the last deviation recorded at 0.03615.

Stay informed on the latest statistics of the U.S. economy.

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Nonfarm Payrolls Data Release: Expect Job Gains of 179,000 in April

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

The new NFP data is expected to show that the US job market continued to recover in April, with an estimated 179,000 job gains, following the 236,000 increase recorded in March.

Stay informed with the latest job market information and analysis from BLS.

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The Struggle of the US Dollar

The US Dollar (USD) has been facing challenges this week, as bearish Federal Reserve (Fed) predictions have taken over the financial markets.

The April jobs report is expected to be a tipping point for the currency, as an impact on the Fed’s policy outlook is anticipated.

While the Fed increased its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 5-5.25%, it removed the statement from the policy report that stated “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.”

In a press conference following the meeting, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the state of the labor market, noting signs of improvement.

Despite his optimistic outlook, he cautioned that there are no guarantees, but it is possible to continue to see labor market improvements without major increases in unemployment.

Stay informed on the USD’s performance and the latest developments in the marketplace.

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What to Expect in the Next Nonfarm Payrolls Report?

The US economic docket for this Friday highlights the release of the highly anticipated monthly jobs report for April.

Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show an increase of 179K jobs, down from the previous month’s 236K growth. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%.

Investors will closely examine the report’s Average Hourly Earnings, which is predicted to remain stable at 4.2% on an annual basis, as well as the Labor Force Participation readings.

Analysts predict that the labor market’s growth will continue to decrease at the start of the second quarter. They note that while the labor market has been slowly bending, it has not broken yet. The report is unlikely to reflect a shift in this trend.

In March, nonfarm payrolls increased by 236K, making it the lowest print since December 2020. The separate household survey showed promising signs, with employment rising by 577K.

This caused the unemployment rate to decrease to 3.5%. Additionally, the labor force participation rate rose for the fourth straight month.

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Analysis: USD/CAD Drops Back After Bouncing off 100-DMA

In early Friday trading in Asia, the USD/CAD dropped to 1.3535 after hitting a two-week low the previous day. Investors are anxious ahead of the release of the April jobs reports from both the US and Canada, as the Loonie pair continues to fight with an important moving average.

Despite the 100-DMA challenging USD/CAD sellers in the last two weeks, the impending bear cross on the MACD and steady RSI is a clear signal of a possible break of the 1.3525 DMA support.

This could lead to a fast drop towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Loonie pair’s November 2022 to March 2023 upside, near 1.3465.

However, the USD/CAD bulls may face challenges from the early April low of around 1.3400 and an upward-sloping support line from November 15, close to 1.3310 at the latest, in case of a drop.

Conversely, a surprise upward trend in the Loonie pair cannot convince the bulls unless it crosses a descending resistance line from March 10, near 1.3640 at the latest.

Even if the quote rises past 1.3640, the USD/CAD bulls may encounter resistance at April’s peak of around 1.3670 before taking control.


Nonfarm Payrolls: What They Are

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly data on the number of new jobs created in all non-agricultural businesses; these are called Nonfarm Payrolls.

This figure is closely tied to economic policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the monthly changes in payrolls can be highly volatile.

It’s essential to note that this data is subject to review, which can trigger significant changes in the forex market. While a high reading is seen as positive (bullish) for the USD, a low reading is seen as negative (bearish).

However, it’s important to consider previous review periods and the current unemployment rate as they can profoundly impact the market reaction.

Overall, understanding Nonfarm Payrolls is critical for traders and investors to stay informed and make informed decisions.

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Why America’s Monthly Jobs Report Matters to Traders

The monthly jobs report from America is a crucial indicator that forex traders follow closely. It is released on the first Friday following the reported month and is considered the most significant economic indicator.

The change in the number of positions is highly correlated with the overall economy’s performance and is closely monitored by policymakers.

One of the Federal Reserve’s mandates is full employment, and it considers the labor market’s developments when setting policies, which can affect currencies. 

Despite various leading indicators used to shape estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility.

When actual figures exceed the consensus, it tends to be bullish for USD. As such, traders should pay close attention to America’s monthly jobs report to make informed trading decisions.

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a government agency under the Department of Labor that measures activities in the labor market, working conditions, and economic price changes.

Its mission is to provide timely government information and services that are easily accessible through various channels. 

The bureau is responsible for publishing the monthly Nonfarm Payroll report, which is the primary indicator of US job sector health, as well as the country’s Consumer Price Index.

The US Federal Reserve relies on employment and inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to make decisions on its monetary policy.


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    Zahari Rangelov is an experienced professional Forex trader and trading mentor with knowledge in technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management and diversification. He has been involved in the foreign exchange markets since 2005, when he opened his first live account in 2007. Currently, Zahari is the Head of Sales & Business Development at TraderFactor's London branch. He provides lectures during webinars and seminars for traders on topics such as; Psychology of market participants’ moods, Investments & speculation with different financial instruments and Automated Expert Advisors & signal providers. Zahari’s success lies in his application of research-backed techniques and practices that have helped him become a successful forex trader, a mentor to many traders, and a respected authority figure within the trading community.