Flash PMIs, UK and Australia inflation, US jobless claims, and UK retail sales preview of this week’s events, iran war and their impact on EUR, GBP, and USD. Updated March 2026.
Market Volatility After Iran War De‑escalation: Key Events to Watch This Week
Geopolitical risk took a sharp turn early Monday. President Trump postponed military strikes on Iran, dialing back tensions that had gripped markets for weeks. The result? A rapid unwinding of safe‑haven flows: the dollar slid, gold bounced to $4,383, and oil tumbled to $90.58. Risk‑on assets from stocks to the Aussie dollar rallied.
But de‑escalation is only part of the story. This week brings a fresh wave of economic data: Flash PMIs from Europe, the UK, and the US; inflation reports from Australia and Britain; US jobless claims; and UK retail sales. Traders will now weigh whether the recovery in sentiment can withstand the test of incoming numbers.
Week Ahead Snapshot
- Risk‑on sentiment returns after Trump postpones Iran strikes; dollar slides, stocks and gold rebound.
- Flash PMIs (Tuesday) – France, Germany, Eurozone, UK, US – will test the strength of the global recovery.
- Inflation data (Wednesday) – Australia CPI and UK CPI – key for RBA and BoE policy expectations.
- US jobless claims (Thursday) – a fresh look at the labour market after recent data.
- UK retail sales (Friday) – the final piece of the puzzle for sterling traders.
- Key levels to watch: EUR/USD 1.1600, GBP/USD 1.3400, DXY 99.00 support.
📅 Last verified: March 23, 2026
Market Context: De‑escalation Drives Risk‑On
Over the weekend, President Trump postponed military strikes on Iran, easing geopolitical tensions that had kept safe‑haven assets bid. The immediate market reaction:
- US Dollar sold off (DXY at 99.28)
- Gold rebounded to $4,383
- Oil tumbled to $90.58
- Stocks and risk currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) rallied
- EUR/USD climbed above 1.1550, GBP/USD near 1.3370
Now, markets turn to a busy economic calendar to gauge whether the risk‑on mood can sustain. This week’s data will provide fresh signals on global growth and inflation, with major releases from the Eurozone, UK, US, and Australia.
Key Levels to Watch This Week
| Asset | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.00 / 98.80 | 99.80 / 100.00 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1500 / 1.1480 | 1.1600 / 1.1620 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3300 / 1.3270 | 1.3400 / 1.3450 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6950 / 0.6920 | 0.7020 / 0.7050 |
| Gold | $4,350 / $4,300 | $4,450 / $4,500 |
| WTI Crude | $89.00 / $88.00 | $92.00 / $93.50 |
| S&P 500 | 6,550 / 6,500 | 6,650 / 6,700 |
📅 Key Events This Week
| Day | Event | Forecast | Currency Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs – France, Germany, Eurozone, UK, US | 50–52 (expansion) | High for EUR, GBP, USD |
| Wednesday | Australia CPI (Q1) | 3.6% y/y | High for AUD |
| Wednesday | UK CPI (February) | 2.8% y/y | High for GBP |
| Thursday | US Initial Jobless Claims | 225K | Medium for USD |
| Friday | UK Retail Sales (February) | 0.4% m/m | High for GBP |
Tuesday: Flash PMIs – Eurozone, UK, US
What Are Flash PMIs?
Flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are early estimates of business activity in manufacturing and services. Readings above 50 indicate expansion; below 50, contraction. They are among the most forward‑looking indicators and often move markets minutes after release.
Impact on Euro (EUR)
- France, Germany, and Eurozone Flash PMIs will set the tone for the single currency.
- Strong readings (>52) would support ECB hawkishness and could lift EUR/USD toward 1.1600.
- Weak readings (<49) would fuel recession fears, sending EUR/USD back toward 1.1500.
Impact on Pound (GBP)
- UK Flash PMIs are a key input for the Bank of England.
- Upside surprise would reinforce expectations that the BoE will keep rates higher for longer, pushing GBP/USD above 1.3400.
- Disappointing numbers could weigh on sterling, testing support at 1.3330.
Impact on US Dollar (USD)
- US Flash PMIs will influence the Fed’s policy outlook.
- Strong data would justify a hawkish Fed, supporting the dollar (DXY toward 99.80).
- Soft prints could fuel rate‑cut bets, sending DXY toward 99.00 support.
Key Levels for Tuesday
| Pair | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1520 | 1.1600 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3330 | 1.3400 |
| DXY | 99.00 | 99.80 |
Wednesday: Inflation Reports
Australia CPI (Q1) – Impact on AUD
- Forecast: 3.6% y/y (previous 3.8%)
- RBA rate expectations: Markets are pricing a 4.20% cash rate. A hotter‑than‑expected CPI could lift AUD/USD toward 0.7020; a cool print could send it back to 0.6950.
UK CPI (February) – Impact on GBP
- Forecast: 2.8% y/y (down from 3.0%)
- BoE implications: Inflation remains above target, but the trend is lower. A downside surprise would strengthen the case for earlier rate cuts, pressuring GBP/USD toward 1.3300. A hotter print would keep the BoE on hold, supporting Cable toward 1.3450.
Thursday: US Jobless Claims
- Forecast: 225K (prior 223K)
- Market expectations: Claims have been range‑bound. A sharp move higher would raise recession fears and weaken the dollar. A drop would reinforce labour market strength, supporting the Fed’s patient stance and underpinning DXY.
Friday: UK Retail Sales
- Forecast: 0.4% m/m (prior 0.2%)
- GBP impact: Strong retail sales would add to the narrative of a resilient UK economy, supporting BoE hawkishness and lifting GBP/USD. Weak data would underscore concerns about consumer spending, weighing on sterling.
Trader’s Outlook
| Scenario | Likely Market Reaction |
|---|---|
| Strong PMIs + Hot Inflation | Dollar strength returns, DXY back to 99.80, EUR/USD and GBP/USD give back gains |
| Soft PMIs + Cooling Inflation | Rate‑cut bets intensify, dollar weakens, stocks and risk currencies rally further |
| Mixed Data | Range‑bound trading with focus on central bank speakers and geopolitical headlines |
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About the Author
This market preview was prepared by Zahari Rangelov, Head of Business Development at TraderFactor. Zahari has over a decade of experience in financial markets, specializing in central bank policy, economic data analysis, and currency trading.
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