Forex Market Today: RBA Hikes to 4.85% as JOLTS, US Midterms and Oil Slide Drive Markets

RBA • JOLTS • Federal Reserve • US Elections • Dollar • Gold • Oil • Bitcoin • Apple • AMD

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RBA Tightens Again — But Falling Oil Changes the Global Inflation Story

Tuesday begins with another major central-bank move.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%.

It is the RBA’s fifth rate increase of 2026 and takes Australian interest rates to their highest level since 2008.

The decision was not unanimous.

Six policymakers supported the increase while three preferred to leave rates unchanged.

The split is important.

Australia’s inflation problem remains serious, but policymakers are increasingly aware that households, housing and economic growth are already responding to previous rate increases.

At the same time, the global inflation picture changed significantly on Monday.

WTI crude collapsed more than 7% and dropped below $100 per barrel after renewed optimism that diplomatic negotiations could reduce tensions between the United States and Iran.

Brent also fell sharply.

That matters far beyond the energy market.

Oil above $100 has been one of the most important inflation risks confronting the Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA and Bank of Canada.

If crude remains below $100, markets may begin lowering some of the inflation premium embedded in global interest rates.

Treasury yields have already moved lower.

The US 10-year yield is trading around the 4.9% region.

The Dollar has softened slightly.

Gold has recovered toward the mid-$3,900s.

But the Federal Reserve cannot relax yet.

Monday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 55.5, comfortably above 50 and stronger than September’s 54.5.

Production jumped to 59.0.

Employment remained in expansion at 52.4.

Most importantly for inflation, the Prices Index remained extremely elevated at 75.2.

So the US economy is still sending the Fed an uncomfortable message:

activity remains strong while businesses continue facing substantial input-price pressure.

Today therefore becomes a battle between falling energy inflation and still-strong US domestic demand, with JOLTS and the US elections providing the next major catalysts.

❓ Question of the Day

Can falling Oil prices reduce inflation pressure quickly enough to stop the Federal Reserve from hiking again in December?

Today’s JOLTS report will help answer the other half of that question by showing whether US labour demand remains strong.

📌 Key Market Highlights

• RBA:
  Australia’s central bank has raised rates 25 bps to 4.85%, its fifth increase of 2026.
• US manufacturing:
  ISM Manufacturing rose to 55.5, confirming continued expansion.
• Inflation:
  ISM Prices Paid remained very high at 75.2 despite easing slightly from September.
• Oil:
  WTI has collapsed below $100 as diplomatic hopes reduce part of the Middle East risk premium.
• Gold:
  Bullion has rebounded toward $3,950 as Treasury yields and Oil prices fall.
• Treasuries:
  The US 10-year yield has moved toward 4.9%, reducing some pressure on rate-sensitive assets.
• US stocks:
  The Nasdaq remains under pressure as investors continue reassessing AI spending and technology valuations.
• Apple:
  Revenue and earnings beat expectations, but margin guidance and higher costs limited enthusiasm.
• Bitcoin:
  BTC remains below $80K as risk appetite and crypto-specific concerns continue weighing on sentiment.
• JOLTS:
  US job openings arrive at 10:00 a.m. ET and could materially change December Fed expectations.
• US elections:
  Congressional elections add another source of volatility through fiscal, regulatory and policy expectations.

US Manufacturing Accelerates

The October ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 from 54.5.

The reading was stronger than expected and marked a tenth consecutive month of expansion.

New Orders remained firm at 55.5.

Production increased strongly to 59.0.

Employment remained above 50 at 52.4.

Customer inventories remained low.

That can be positive for future production because businesses may need to rebuild stock.

The problem remains prices.

The Prices Index was 75.2.

That is slightly below September’s 77.9 but remains exceptionally elevated.

The report therefore strengthens the case that the US economy remains resilient while inflationary pressures are still uncomfortable for the Fed.

🛢️ Oil Drops Below $100 — A Major Macro Development

The largest cross-asset move on Monday came from Oil.

WTI crude fell more than 7% toward approximately $96–97 per barrel.

Brent dropped toward approximately $104–105.

The move followed renewed optimism that diplomatic efforts could produce progress between Washington and Tehran.

This changes the immediate inflation discussion.

Oil prices affect far more than petrol stations.

They influence:

• Transport costs
• Airfares
• Shipping
• Manufacturing input costs
• Agricultural production
• Business margins
• Consumer inflation expectations

A sustained move below $100 would remove some pressure from headline inflation around the world.

That could eventually reduce the urgency for additional central-bank tightening.

But traders should remain careful.

Middle East diplomacy has produced several false starts during 2026.

Oil therefore remains extremely headline-sensitive, and any breakdown in negotiations could quickly restore the geopolitical premium.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered another 25-basis-point increase.

The cash rate is now 4.85%.

This is the fifth rate increase of 2026 and the highest Australian policy rate since 2008.

The vote was 6–3.

Three policymakers preferred to hold at 4.60%.

That disagreement tells traders that the RBA is approaching a more difficult phase of its tightening cycle.

Inflation argues for higher rates.

But previous increases are already slowing parts of the economy.

Australian headline inflation reached 4.3% in September.

Underlying inflation also remains above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range.

High fuel costs have been an important contributor.

Domestic capacity pressures and weak productivity have also complicated the inflation outlook.

The RBA therefore faces a different problem from several other central banks.

It cannot assume inflation will return to target simply because household demand is weakening.

Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference and the Bank’s updated forecasts will now determine whether markets expect another increase to 5.10% or whether 4.85% becomes the temporary peak.

Why AUD/USD May Not Automatically Rally After the Hike

Normally, higher interest rates support a currency.

But markets had already priced a very high probability of today’s RBA increase.

That means the decision itself was not a major surprise.

AUD/USD is therefore likely to react more strongly to the RBA’s guidance than to the 25-basis-point move alone.

A message that more tightening remains possible could strengthen the Aussie.

A message suggesting that 4.85% may be sufficient could produce a classic buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact reaction.

AUD/USD remains close to the psychologically important 0.7000 area.

US September JOLTS Job Openings are released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Markets expect job openings to remain close to approximately 7.1 million.

This report matters because the Federal Reserve is watching whether labour demand is cooling.

Last week’s data already established that:

• GDP growth is strong.
• PCE inflation remains elevated.
• Manufacturing activity is expanding.
• Manufacturing input prices remain high.

The missing question is employment.

If job openings remain high or rise, employers may still be competing aggressively for workers.

That can support wage growth and services inflation.

It would strengthen the argument for another Fed hike in December.

A sharp decline in vacancies would suggest labour demand is cooling more quickly.

That could reduce December-hike expectations and place downward pressure on Treasury yields and the Dollar.

JOLTS is therefore the first major labour-market test before Wednesday’s ADP report and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.

🔥 Strong JOLTS

Higher job openings could lift Fed-hike expectations, Treasury yields and the Dollar while placing renewed pressure on Gold and growth stocks.

⚖️ In-Line JOLTS

A result close to expectations would leave markets waiting for ADP, ISM Services and Friday’s NFP.

🌿 Weak JOLTS

A meaningful fall in vacancies could push yields and the Dollar lower while supporting Gold, although stocks may react negatively if the deterioration looks severe.

US voters head to the polls today for congressional elections.

The immediate market impact is unlikely to come from politics alone.

Instead, investors will assess how the result could affect future policy in areas such as:

• Government spending
• Tax policy
• Energy
• Healthcare
• Technology regulation
• AI infrastructure
• Cryptocurrency regulation
• Trade policy

A major shift in congressional control could change expectations around fiscal policy over the next two years.

That can affect Treasury issuance and yields.

It can also affect sector-level expectations in technology, healthcare, energy and financial markets.

Forex traders should therefore monitor election-driven moves in Treasury yields and equity volatility rather than treating the election as a standalone Dollar signal.

Apple reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $114.5 billion.

Revenue increased 12% from a year earlier.

Diluted earnings per share reached $2.10.

iPhone revenue was approximately $57.6 billion.

Gross margin was 47.9%.

The headline results were strong.

But investors remain unusually demanding toward large technology companies.

Apple indicated December-quarter gross margin could fall toward roughly 45%–46% as higher memory costs and AI-related expenses increase pressure.

That limited enthusiasm around the earnings beat.

The reaction fits the broader market theme.

Investors are no longer rewarding technology companies simply for reporting high revenue growth.

They also want:

• Strong margins
• Clear AI monetisation
• Disciplined capital expenditure
• Healthy cash flow
• Credible forward guidance

That helps explain why the Nasdaq has continued weakening despite falling Treasury yields.

Technology remains the weakest major part of the US equity market.

The Nasdaq Composite fell approximately 1.1% Monday.

The S&P 500 declined approximately 0.5%.

The Dow, however, gained approximately 0.4%.

That divergence matters.

The broader economy is not collapsing.

Instead, investors are rotating away from highly valued technology shares.

The Nasdaq-100 has now fallen more than 10% from its October record high, placing it in technical correction territory.

Concerns include:

• AI capital expenditure
• Data-centre financing
• Semiconductor valuations
• Cloud profitability
• Corporate borrowing
• Future returns on AI investment

The fact that technology remains weak while Treasury yields fall suggests the current correction is increasingly about valuation and profitability rather than rates alone.

AMD Earnings Become Tonight’s Main Technology Test

AMD reports fiscal third-quarter results after the US market closes.

The timing is important because semiconductor stocks are at the centre of the AI valuation debate.

Investors will focus on:

• Data-centre revenue
• AI accelerator demand
• Margins
• Forward guidance
• Capital expenditure
• Competition in AI computing

Arista Networks also reports after the close, providing another important look at spending on AI and data-centre networking infrastructure.

Strong AMD guidance could help stabilise the Nasdaq, while disappointment could deepen the technology correction.

The US 10-year Treasury yield has moved toward approximately 4.9%.

Two forces are helping bonds.

First, technology-sector weakness has encouraged safe-haven demand.

Second, the sharp decline in Oil reduces some of the inflation risk priced into long-term bonds.

That produces an important market correlation.

Lower Oil → lower expected inflation → stronger bonds → lower yields.

Lower yields can weaken the Dollar at the margin.

They also reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold.

But this relationship could reverse rapidly if JOLTS and Friday’s NFP show an unexpectedly strong labour market.

The 5% region therefore remains one of the most important cross-asset levels in global markets.

🇪🇺 EUR/USD: Lower US Yields Provide Support

EUR/USD has recovered toward the upper-1.11 area.

The Euro is benefiting primarily from a softer Dollar and lower Treasury yields.

The ECB held rates last week but left further tightening open because inflation remains above target.

Wednesday’s Eurozone inflation report will provide the next major domestic test.

Support: 1.1140 / 1.1100   |   Resistance: 1.1225 / 1.1280

🇬🇧 GBP/USD: BoE Risk Keeps Sterling Supported

GBP/USD is holding around 1.34.

The Pound remains supported by expectations that the Bank of England may need to tighten policy again on Thursday.

However, falling Oil prices could eventually reduce one of the biggest sources of UK inflation pressure.

That makes today’s Oil move relevant even for Sterling traders.

Support: 1.3360 / 1.3300   |   Resistance: 1.3450 / 1.3520

🇦🇺 AUD/USD: RBA Hikes — Now Guidance Matters

AUD/USD remains close to 0.7000 following the RBA decision.

The rate increase itself was heavily anticipated.

The key issue is whether the RBA signals that rates may need to rise again.

A sustained move higher in AUD/USD would likely require the market to price additional tightening beyond today’s 4.85% rate.

Support: 0.6960 / 0.6920   |   Resistance: 0.7040 / 0.7080

🇳🇿 NZD/USD: Employment Data Comes Next

NZD/USD remains near the low-0.56 area.

The Kiwi is still processing last week’s surprise RBNZ hold.

New Zealand employment data arrive later today.

A strong labour report could revive expectations that the close RBNZ vote eventually results in another rate increase.

Support: 0.5570 / 0.5520   |   Resistance: 0.5660 / 0.5700

🇨🇦 USD/CAD: Oil Collapse Tests Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD is holding close to 1.40.

The Bank of Canada raised rates last week.

But Canada’s currency has now lost an important source of support as Oil falls sharply.

Lower crude prices reduce the value of Canadian energy exports and can weaken the terms-of-trade advantage that normally supports the Canadian Dollar.

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem also speaks later today.

Support: 1.3940 / 1.3900   |   Resistance: 1.4030 / 1.4100

🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Lower US Yields Challenge the Pair

USD/JPY remains close to 158.

The pair continues to reflect the enormous US-Japan rate differential.

However, declining US Treasury yields reduce part of the Dollar’s advantage.

The Bank of Japan also remains on a path toward gradual policy normalisation.

Japanese markets are closed for Culture Day, which may reduce liquidity during part of today’s Asian session.

Support: 157.00 / 156.30   |   Resistance: 158.60 / 159.30

🇨🇭 USD/CHF: Swiss CPI Adds Domestic Risk

USD/CHF remains near 0.82.

The Franc has benefited from weaker US yields and continuing demand for defensive currencies.

Swiss inflation data today could alter expectations for SNB policy.

Support: 0.8140 / 0.8100   |   Resistance: 0.8230 / 0.8280

🥇 Gold Rebounds Toward $3,950

Gold has recovered strongly after falling below $3,900 last week.

The rebound is being driven by several connected factors.

Oil prices have fallen sharply.

Inflation expectations have consequently eased.

Treasury yields have moved lower.

The Dollar has softened.

Technology-market volatility remains elevated.

All of these factors provide support for Gold.

However, the fundamental challenge remains.

US GDP is strong.

Manufacturing is expanding.

PCE inflation remains above target.

The Fed could still hike again.

Today, JOLTS becomes the immediate risk.

A strong number could push yields and the Dollar higher again.

Support: $3,900 / $3,850   |   Resistance: $3,975 / $4,025

🥈 Silver Recovers Above $50

Silver has also recovered as Treasury yields retreat.

Monday’s strong ISM manufacturing report provides additional support through Silver’s industrial-demand channel.

That gives Silver a different profile from Gold.

It can benefit both from falling yields and from evidence of strong industrial activity.

Support: $49.50 / $48.50   |   Resistance: $51.50 / $53.00

₿ Bitcoin Struggles Below $80,000

Bitcoin is trading around the $76K–$77K region.

The cryptocurrency remains under pressure despite falling Treasury yields.

That shows how weak crypto-specific sentiment currently is.

Last week’s Binance security incident continues to affect confidence.

Bitcoin ETF flows have also become less supportive.

At the same time, weakness in technology stocks is reducing demand for higher-risk assets.

The key macro variable remains the Fed.

Weak JOLTS and NFP data could reduce December-hike expectations and improve liquidity conditions.

Strong labour data would make that recovery more difficult.

Support: $76K / $74.5K   |   Resistance: $78.5K / $80K

🛢️ WTI: $100 Changes From Support to Resistance

WTI has dropped toward approximately $96–97.

That means the psychologically important $100 level has changed character.

For much of October, $100 acted as support.

It may now become resistance if diplomatic momentum continues.

A sustained break below $95 would suggest traders are removing even more of the geopolitical risk premium.

A move back above $100 would signal that supply fears are returning.

Support: $95 / $92   |   Resistance: $98.50 / $100

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq-100 is now in correction territory after falling more than 10% from its October record.

Technology weakness remains the clearest risk in global equities.

Lower Treasury yields have not yet been enough to restore confidence.

AMD earnings tonight become the next major test.

Support: 27,800 / 27,400   |   Resistance: 28,500 / 29,000

S&P 500

The S&P 500 ended Monday at approximately 7,541.

The index fell even though most sectors were more resilient than technology.

That suggests the market is experiencing an important internal rotation.

If technology stabilises, the broader index may recover relatively quickly.

If selling spreads into financials, industrials and consumer stocks, risk would increase substantially.

Support: 7,500 / 7,420   |   Resistance: 7,600 / 7,680

US30

The Dow gained Monday while the Nasdaq fell.

That confirms investors are rotating toward more traditional cyclical, financial and defensive companies.

The Dow could continue outperforming while AI valuation concerns remain concentrated in growth stocks.

Support: 51,500 / 51,000   |   Resistance: 52,500 / 53,000

✅ RBA Monetary Policy Decision

The RBA has raised its cash rate 25 basis points to 4.85%. Focus now shifts to Governor Michele Bullock and the Bank’s updated economic forecasts.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock Press Conference

The press conference is the next major AUD catalyst. Traders will listen for guidance on whether another increase to 5.10% remains possible.

Swiss CPI

Swiss inflation will help shape expectations for the SNB and may create volatility in USD/CHF and EUR/CHF.

All Day — US Congressional Elections

Markets will watch for possible implications for fiscal policy, regulation, energy, technology, healthcare and cryptocurrencies.

10:00 a.m. ET — US JOLTS Job Openings

One of the week’s most important labour-market reports ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.

10:00 a.m. ET — US Factory Orders

Factory demand will provide another look at the strength of the US manufacturing sector after Monday’s strong ISM report.

Later — BoC Governor Tiff Macklem

Markets will look for additional guidance after the Bank of Canada raised rates last week.

Later — New Zealand Employment

The labour report could materially affect expectations for the next RBNZ decision following last week’s close vote to hold rates.

Tuesday Earnings

• Pfizer — healthcare demand and guidance
• AMD — AI chips, data centres and margins
• Arista Networks — AI networking and cloud infrastructure spending
• Booking Holdings — travel demand
• Amgen — healthcare and pharmaceutical demand

AMD and Arista are particularly important because the market is currently questioning whether the AI infrastructure spending boom can continue generating adequate returns.

Oil ↓ → Inflation expectations ↓ → Treasury yields ↓

If crude remains below $100, markets may reduce some expectations for future global rate hikes.

Treasury yields ↓ → Dollar pressure ↑ → Gold support ↑

Lower yields reduce the Dollar’s interest-rate advantage and lower the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Strong JOLTS → Fed hike expectations ↑ → Dollar/yields ↑

This could reverse part of Monday’s bond and Gold moves.

Weak technology → Treasury safe-haven demand ↑

If the Nasdaq selloff continues, investors may continue buying government bonds even if US economic data remain strong.

RBA hawkish guidance → AUD support

But because today’s hike was heavily priced, the Aussie needs evidence that more tightening remains possible before receiving a sustained rate-support advantage.

🎯 TraderFactor Bottom Line

RBA:
Australia has tightened again, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, but the 6–3 vote shows policymakers are becoming increasingly divided.

US economy:
Manufacturing remains strong, with ISM rising to 55.5.

Inflation:
US factory input prices remain high, but falling Oil provides an important new source of relief.

Oil:
WTI below $100 could materially improve the global inflation outlook if the move is sustained.

Treasuries:
The 10-year yield is back near 4.9% as falling Oil and technology risk support bonds.

Dollar:
Strong US data are being offset by declining yields.

Gold:
The metal has recovered toward $3,950 as the yield environment improves.

Bitcoin:
BTC remains vulnerable below $80K despite lower bond yields.

Stocks:
The Nasdaq-100 has entered correction territory as investors reassess AI valuations and capital spending.

Today:
JOLTS, election developments, the RBA press conference and AMD earnings can all generate major volatility.

The most important macro battle today is clear: falling Oil is reducing inflation pressure, but strong US activity and labour demand could still keep another Federal Reserve rate hike firmly on the table.

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Risk Disclaimer:

This report is for general information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex, commodities, cryptocurrencies, bonds and equity indices can move rapidly following economic releases, central-bank decisions, elections, corporate earnings and geopolitical developments.