RBA hikes cash rate to 4.10% in split decision. AUD/USD falls mildly to 0.70566 as move was priced in. Full market update with war news and key levels.
Market Update: RBA Hikes Rates to 4.10% as Expected; War and Oil in Focus
By Zahari Rangelov – Published: March 17, 2026
The RBA hiked rates to 4.10% today exactly as markets expected. So why did the Australian Dollar move slightly?
Because in trading, what’s priced in rarely moves the needle.
AUD/USD dipped mildly to 0.70566, a muted reaction to a widely anticipated decision. But with four Board members voting to hold and the Iran war pressuring global oil prices, the real story lies beneath the surface.
This update breaks down the RBA’s split decision, the market reaction across majors, and what to watch as Trump pressures NATO to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Takeaways
- RBA Decision: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% , as widely expected. The decision was split, with five members voting for the hike and four voting to hold.
- AUD/USD Reaction: The Australian Dollar saw only a mild fall to 0.70566 , reflecting that the move was largely priced in.
- USD/JPY: Stagnates above 159.00 , with intervention fears lingering as the yen remains under pressure.
- Gold: Steady above $5,000 , holding firm despite a slightly stronger US Dollar.
- Bitcoin: Bullish above $74,000 , showing continued strength.
- War Update: Iran conflict continues as President Trump pressures NATO to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Stocks: Mild gains as oil prices cool from recent highs.
RBA Decision: Rates Hiked to 4.10% in Split Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced a 25 basis point hike today, bringing the cash rate to 4.10% . The decision was not unanimous, with five members voting for the increase and four members preferring to hold at 3.85% .
Key Points from the RBA Statement
- Inflation Concerns: The Board noted that inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, partly due to higher fuel prices from the Middle East conflict.
- Labour Market: The unemployment rate is a little lower than expected, and labour underutilisation remains at low rates.
- Global Risks: The conflict in the Middle East poses substantial risks. A longer or more severe conflict could put further upward pressure on global energy prices.
- Forward Guidance: The Board stated it will be “attentive to the data” and “will do what it considers necessary” to achieve price stability.
AUD/USD Reaction: Mild Fall
The Australian Dollar dipped to 0.70566 following the announcement. The move was muted because the 25 basis point hike was widely anticipated by markets. The focus now shifts to the RBA’s next move and whether today’s hike will be followed by more.
| AUD/USD Levels | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Current: 0.70566 | 0.7030 / 0.7000 | 0.7100 / 0.7150 |
Forex Market Snapshot
| Pair | Current Price | Daily Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.14930 | +0.2% (mild recovery) | Dollar softness, war watch |
| GBP/USD | 1.33027 | +0.2% (mild recovery) | BOE expectations |
| USD/JPY | 159.00+ | Flat (stagnant) | Intervention fears, BOJ ahead |
| AUD/USD | 0.70566 | -0.1% (mild fall) | RBA hike priced in |
| NZD/USD | 0.58428 | +0.1% | Risk sentiment |
| USD/CAD | 1.36815 | +0.1% | Oil cools, USD steady |
| DXY | 99.635 | +0.1% | Safe-haven demand |
Iran War Update: Trump Pressures NATO to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The Iran war continues into its third week. President Trump is now pressuring NATO to take action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz , a critical chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes.
Market Implications
- Oil Prices: Have cooled slightly from recent highs, allowing stocks to post mild gains.
- Safe-Haven Demand: The US Dollar remains supported, but the absence of new escalation today has capped further gains.
- Gold: Steady above $5,000, holding its safe-haven bid.
Gold Steady Above $5,000
Gold is trading at $5,020 , holding firm despite a slightly stronger US Dollar.
| Gold Levels | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Current: $5,020 | $4,980 / $4,950 | $5,050 / $5,100 |
Bitcoin Bullish Above $74,000
Bitcoin continues its rally, trading above $74,000. The cryptocurrency remains bullish, seemingly decoupled from traditional markets
Stocks: Mild Gains as Oil Cools
Equity markets are posting mild gains today as oil prices cool from recent peaks. The cooler oil price offers some relief to inflation concerns, supporting risk appetite.
Trader’s Outlook
| Theme | What to Watch |
|---|---|
| RBA Aftermath | Any follow-through on AUD/USD or range trade? |
| BOJ Intervention | USD/JPY stagnant above 159.00 – will Japan act? |
| War Headlines | Any news on Strait of Hormuz could spike oil. |
| Gold | Steady for now – watch $5,050 resistance. |
Key Levels to Watch
| Asset | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.20 / 99.00 | 99.80 / 100.00 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1450 / 1.1400 | 1.1520 / 1.1550 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3270 / 1.3200 | 1.3350 / 1.3400 |
| USD/JPY | 158.50 / 158.00 | 159.80 / 160.00 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7030 / 0.7000 | 0.7100 / 0.7150 |
| Gold | $4,980 / $4,950 | $5,050 / $5,100 |
Related Reading on TraderFactor
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| [Forex Broker Regulation Tier List] | Understand safety tiers for any broker |
| Market Outlook This Week: Central Bank Meetings Dominate as Iran War Enters Third Week | Market outlook this week |
| [Forex Spreads vs. Commissions] | Trading costs and how to minimize them |
| [Candle Range Theory Strategy] | A powerful strategy for beginners to master |
About the Author
This market update was prepared by Zahari Rangelov, Head of Business Development at TraderFactor. Zahari has over a decade of experience in financial markets, specializing in central bank policy, geopolitical risk, and currency trading.
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