In the Forex Market Report, the US dollar steadies as FOMC Minutes reveal a divided Fed while Trump escalates US-Iran tensions. Outlook for gold, oil, stocks, crypto and forex today.

Forex Market Today: Dollar, Gold, Stocks, Crypto & Oil React to FOMC Minutes as Trump Revives US-Iran Conflict Concerns

Global financial markets remain volatile after the release of the June FOMC Minutes, which showed Federal Reserve officials remain divided over the future path of interest rates. While rates were left unchanged, several policymakers continue to expect another rate hike later this year as inflation remains above target. At the same time, President Trump’s latest comments on the US-Iran conflict have reignited geopolitical concerns after warning of stronger military action if attacks on shipping continue in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, traders are closely monitoring the US dollar, gold, oil, stocks and cryptocurrencies as markets remain driven by both economic data and breaking geopolitical headlines.

 Support and Resistance Levels

Market Analysis

Currencies / Forex

Currency markets remain focused on the implications of yesterday’s FOMC Minutes, which revealed a Federal Reserve that remains divided over the outlook for interest rates. While policymakers kept rates unchanged, nine of the eighteen officials still expect another rate hike before the end of the year, highlighting persistent concerns about inflation. Kevin Warsh’s commitment to a data-driven approach and his determination to return inflation to the 2% target continue supporting the US dollar despite last week’s weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Adding to market uncertainty, President Trump’s comments that the ceasefire with Iran is effectively over have revived demand for safe-haven assets and increased volatility across currency markets. Traders are now balancing expectations for higher-for-longer US interest rates against rising geopolitical risks, leaving the dollar relatively well supported heading into today’s US labour market data.

EURUSD

EURUSD remains under pressure below 1.1450 as traders continue favoring the US dollar following the FOMC Minutes. Although weaker payrolls initially weighed on the greenback, the Fed’s continued concern about inflation has limited dollar weakness.

Technically, the pair continues trading above key support near 1.1390. A sustained break above 1.1460 could encourage further euro buying, while renewed dollar strength may push the pair back toward recent lows.

GBPUSD

Sterling remains resilient but continues struggling to build momentum against the US dollar. Markets are balancing expectations for future Bank of England policy with a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

The pair remains constructive above 1.3360, although traders are likely to remain cautious until fresh economic data provides clearer direction.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD remains supported by improving risk sentiment but has failed to establish a decisive breakout as investors remain cautious following the Fed Minutes.

The pair continues holding above 0.6900, although stronger US yields and renewed geopolitical tensions could limit additional upside in the short term.

NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar remains one of the stronger performers after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its Official Cash Rate to 2.50%. Higher domestic interest rates continue supporting the kiwi, although broader market sentiment remains heavily influenced by US monetary policy and geopolitical developments.

Technically, NZDUSD continues trading comfortably above 0.5700. Continued optimism surrounding the New Zealand economy could see the pair challenge 0.5760 resistance, while renewed US dollar strength may trigger a pullback toward 0.5690.

USDJPY

USDJPY remains elevated above 162 as the wide interest-rate differential continues favor the US dollar despite expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue gradually tightening policy following stronger inflation data.

The pair remains technically bullish while holding above 161.90. However, traders remain cautious as Japanese authorities continue monitoring excessive yen weakness, increasing the possibility of verbal or direct market intervention.

USDCHF

USDCHF remains relatively stable as investors continue balancing safe-haven demand between the Swiss franc and the US dollar. Renewed geopolitical tensions have increased demand for defensive assets, although the Fed’s hawkish stance continues supporting the greenback.

From a technical perspective, USDCHF remains trapped between 0.8040 support and 0.8110 resistance. Today’s US labour market data could determine the pair’s next breakout.

USDCAD

USDCAD has weakened slightly despite stronger oil prices, reflecting improved demand for the Canadian dollar. Crude oil remains an important driver for CAD after Trump’s comments regarding Iran pushed WTI back above $74 per barrel.

Attention is now turning toward Friday’s Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports, which could significantly influence expectations for future Bank of Canada policy and determine the pair’s next major move.

Crypto / Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues consolidating near the 62,000 level as traders assess the implications of the latest FOMC Minutes. While the possibility of another Fed rate hike has limited enthusiasm for risk assets, institutional demand and improving long-term adoption continue providing underlying support for cryptocurrencies.

Technically, Bitcoin remains range-bound between 61,500 and 63,000. A break above resistance could attract fresh buying interest, while renewed dollar strength and higher Treasury yields may pressure prices lower in the near term.

Gold

Gold has retreated toward 4,050 as traders reacted to the FOMC Minutes and stronger expectations that US interest rates may remain elevated for longer. Higher yields continue reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

However, renewed tensions surrounding the US-Iran conflict continue supporting safe-haven demand, limiting deeper losses. A decisive move above 4,100 would improve the short-term outlook, while a break below 4,025 could expose additional downside.

Stocks / Equities

Equity markets traded cautiously following the release of the FOMC Minutes. Investors welcomed the absence of an immediate rate hike but remain concerned that persistent inflation could keep borrowing costs elevated for longer. Technology stocks remain particularly sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations.

At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions have increased overall market uncertainty. Investors continue monitoring developments in the Middle East alongside incoming economic data, with volatility likely to remain elevated throughout the remainder of the week.

NAS100

The NAS100 remains under modest pressure as higher Treasury yields continue weighing on growth-oriented technology stocks. Nevertheless, optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and corporate earnings continues providing longer-term support.

Technically, the index remains above key support near 29,000, with buyers targeting a move back toward 29,600 if market sentiment improves.

SP500

The S&P 500 remains relatively resilient despite heightened geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policy. Investors continue balancing strong corporate fundamentals against the prospect of higher interest rates.

The broader trend remains constructive while prices remain above 7,460, although today’s US labour market data may trigger increased volatility.

US30

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues outperforming many technology-focused indices as investors rotate toward defensive sectors and value stocks. Industrial companies have also benefited from expectations that infrastructure and manufacturing spending will remain relatively resilient.

The index remains supported above 52,000, although market participants remain cautious as geopolitical developments and interest-rate expectations continue influencing overall risk sentiment.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical tensions returned to the forefront after President Trump declared that the temporary ceasefire with Iran was effectively over, warning that any further attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz would be met with stronger US military action. The remarks reignited concerns over global energy supplies and prompted a sharp rise in oil prices.

Although diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran are still ongoing, the outlook remains highly uncertain. As long as negotiations continue alongside military threats, markets are likely to remain headline-driven, with oil, gold, the US dollar and broader risk assets reacting quickly to new developments.

Economic Calendar

Thursday – US Initial Jobless Claims

The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report offers another important snapshot of the US labour market following last week’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Lower-than-expected claims would suggest the labour market remains resilient, supporting the US dollar and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated. Higher claims, however, could increase speculation that economic conditions are weakening and strengthen expectations for future rate cuts.

Friday – Canada Employment Report

Friday’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports will be the key drivers for the Canadian dollar.

A stronger labour market would likely support CAD by reinforcing confidence in the Canadian economy and reducing expectations of future Bank of Canada easing. Conversely, weaker employment data could pressure the Canadian dollar and support gains in USDCAD.

Forex Factory Calendar

Final Outlook

Markets remain caught between a hawkish Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Yesterday’s FOMC Minutes confirmed that policymakers remain divided, with many still expecting another rate increase this year despite softer employment data. At the same time, President Trump’s latest remarks on Iran have increased uncertainty across energy markets and boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

Going into the remainder of the week, traders should closely monitor today’s US labour market data, Friday’s Canadian employment figures and any fresh developments from the Middle East. Expect elevated volatility across the US dollar, gold, oil, stocks and cryptocurrencies as markets continue reacting to both economic data and geopolitical headlines.

About the Author

Zahari Rangelov

Head of Business Development, TraderFactor

Zahari specializes in broker analysis, regulatory research, and trading education. He has over a decade of experience helping traders navigate the complex world of online brokers.  His expertise spans technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management, and trading psychology. A respected mentor and speaker, Zahari regularly leads webinars and seminars covering market sentiment, speculative instruments, and automated trading systems. His research-backed, practical approach has established him as a trusted authority within the global trading community.

 

Reviewed By:

Reviewed by Alex Kanyi, Head of Compliance at TraderFactor

“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”

TRADERS EDUCATION RESOURCES

TRADERS MARKET INSIGHTS

 

Last Updated: July 2026

 

Disclaimer:

All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner’s prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.