In Forex market today, weak US NFP boosts rate cut hopes as traders assess the outlook for the US dollar, gold, oil, stocks and Bitcoin ahead of the July 4 holiday.

Forex Market Today: Dollar Steadies as Stocks, Gold, Oil and Crypto React to Weak NFP and Fed Rate Outlook

TraderFactor Market Report: July 03, 2026

The final trading session of the week begins under quieter market conditions as the United States observes the July 4 Independence Day holiday. Although trading volumes are expected to remain relatively light, investors continue digesting yesterday’s weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs in June compared with expectations of 110,000. The softer labour market data has increased speculation over future Federal Reserve policy while supporting gold, cryptocurrencies and major currencies against the US dollar. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments and central bank commentary continue influencing overall market sentiment.

Support and Resistance Snapshot

Market Analysis

Currencies / Forex

EURUSD

EURUSD continues to trade near multi-year highs after the weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may eventually have room to ease policy if labour market weakness persists. However, Kevin Warsh’s recent remarks reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to price stability continue to limit aggressive selling of the US dollar.

Technically, the pair remains in a well-defined uptrend above 1.1400. Momentum remains positive while buyers continue targeting the 1.1500 resistance area. Any recovery in the US dollar could trigger profit-taking, but the broader trend remains constructive.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD extended gains as broad US dollar weakness outweighed relatively quiet UK economic data. With today’s US holiday reducing liquidity, attention shifts to speeches from Bank of England officials that could influence sterling heading into next week.

The pair remains comfortably above 1.3300 with bullish momentum intact. Holding above this level keeps buyers targeting higher resistance, although reduced trading volumes could limit significant moves today.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar benefited from improving global risk sentiment, a weaker US dollar and resilient commodity prices. Investors also continue monitoring China’s economic outlook, which remains an important driver for the Australian economy.

AUDUSD continues respecting its short-term upward trend. Buyers remain in control above 0.6900, with the next resistance located near 0.7000 if momentum continues.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD continues advancing alongside other risk-sensitive currencies as traders reduce long-dollar positions following softer US employment data. Stable risk appetite also provides additional support.

Technically, the pair maintains higher highs and higher lows, indicating buyers remain in control. Sustained trading above 0.5700 keeps the medium-term bullish outlook intact.

USDCAD

USDCAD remains under pressure as weaker US dollar sentiment combines with relatively stable oil prices. Higher crude prices continue providing underlying support for the Canadian dollar.

The pair continues trading below recent resistance, suggesting sellers maintain control. A sustained move below 1.4150 could expose additional downside toward the next support zone.

USDJPY

USDJPY has retreated modestly after Tokyo Core CPI reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan could continue gradually normalising monetary policy. Softer US employment data also narrowed yield expectations in favour of the yen.

Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains elevated above 160.00. Further downside may emerge if US Treasury yields continue declining, while stronger yields would quickly restore bullish momentum.

USDCHF

USDCHF remains under pressure as investors rotate away from the US dollar following weaker labour market data. Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc has also remained relatively stable amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Technically, the pair continues respecting its short-term bearish structure below resistance. Sellers remain favoured unless price breaks back above the recent highs.

Crypto / Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to outperform following the weaker US employment report, climbing above 61,500 as investors anticipate a less aggressive Federal Reserve if labour market conditions continue to soften. Lower Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar have improved overall risk sentiment, supporting demand for digital assets.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains comfortably above the 60,000 psychological level. As long as buyers defend this support, momentum favours another attempt toward the 62,500 to 63,000 resistance zone. However, traders should remain cautious as crypto markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments and shifts in global liquidity.

Gold

Gold continues attracting buyers after weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data reduced demand for the US dollar. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh maintained a hawkish tone earlier in the week, softer employment data has encouraged speculation that future policy tightening may become more data dependent.

Technically, gold remains firmly within its medium-term uptrend after reclaiming the 4,150 region. Buyers continue targeting the recent highs near 4,200, while any pullback toward support is likely to attract renewed buying interest if US yields remain subdued.

Stocks / Equities

US equity markets remain resilient despite signs of slowing labour market growth. Investors are balancing weaker employment figures against the possibility that the Federal Reserve could eventually adopt a less restrictive stance if economic momentum continues moderating.

With US markets closed today for the Independence Day holiday, trading volumes are expected to remain relatively light. Even so, sentiment remains constructive as investors continue assessing corporate earnings, economic data and geopolitical developments.

NAS100

The NAS100 remains supported by continued strength in large-cap technology companies and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence. Lower bond yields following the NFP report have also improved valuations for growth stocks.

Technically, the index continues trading within a strong bullish trend. Holding above 29,300 keeps the focus on another move toward the 30,000 psychological level.

US30

The US30 remains near record highs as investors continue favouring industrial and value stocks. Expectations that the economy may achieve a soft landing have supported demand despite slowing employment growth.

The broader trend remains bullish while price continues holding above key support. Any pullbacks may present buying opportunities if macroeconomic conditions remain stable.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 continues posting fresh highs as investors balance moderating economic growth with resilient corporate earnings. The weaker employment report has eased some concerns about further aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve.

From a technical standpoint, the index remains in a well-established uptrend with buyers maintaining control. Unless economic data deteriorates sharply, overall sentiment continues favouring higher prices over the medium term.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical developments remain an important driver of market sentiment. Diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran continue, with both sides describing the latest indirect talks as constructive while acknowledging that several issues remain unresolved.

Although immediate tensions have eased, traders remain alert as negotiations remain fragile. Any unexpected developments could quickly influence oil prices, safe-haven demand and overall risk appetite across global financial markets.

Economic Calendar

Friday – US Independence Day Holiday

Friday is expected to be relatively quiet as US financial markets observe the Independence Day holiday. Lower trading volumes could reduce liquidity across forex, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies, which may result in irregular price movements despite fewer scheduled economic releases.

Although the US calendar is light, traders should continue monitoring speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) officials. Any unexpected comments regarding inflation or future interest rate policy could generate volatility in the euro and British pound. Markets will also continue reacting to Thursday’s weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report and ongoing geopolitical headlines.

Final Outlook

Markets end the week with attention shifting from economic data to policy expectations. Thursday’s weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report has softened the US dollar and revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could eventually adopt a less restrictive stance if labour market conditions continue to weaken. However, Kevin Warsh’s recent comments reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target suggest policymakers remain cautious about declaring victory over inflation.

Looking ahead, traders should continue monitoring Federal Reserve communication, incoming inflation data and geopolitical developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. While today’s US holiday is likely to reduce trading activity, headline-driven volatility remains possible. Overall, gold, Bitcoin and major currencies could continue benefiting from a softer dollar, while equity markets remain supported by expectations that interest rates may gradually become less restrictive later in the year.

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About the Author

Zahari Rangelov

Head of Business Development, TraderFactor

Zahari specializes in broker analysis, regulatory research, and trading education. He has over a decade of experience helping traders navigate the complex world of online brokers.  His expertise spans technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management, and trading psychology. A respected mentor and speaker, Zahari regularly leads webinars and seminars covering market sentiment, speculative instruments, and automated trading systems. His research-backed, practical approach has established him as a trusted authority within the global trading community.

 

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Reviewed by Alex Kanyi, Head of Compliance at TraderFactor

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Last Updated: July 2026

 

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