Forex Market Today: NFP in Focus as Dollar Weakens, Gold Reclaims $4,100 and Tech Rout Shakes Markets

Forex Market Today reaches the most important scheduled macro event of the week with the US Dollar under pressure, Gold back above $4,100 and global risk sentiment shaken by one of the sharpest technology-stock selloffs of the year.

Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report now becomes the key test for the post-election decline in the Dollar and Treasury yields.

Economists expect the US economy to have added approximately 65,000 jobs in October, up from only 29,000 in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.2%.

Average Hourly Earnings are also important, with monthly wage growth expected near 0.3% after just 0.1% previously.

But NFP arrives after another dramatic market session.

The Bank of England raised interest rates to 4.00%, US jobless claims remained low, Treasury yields fell, Gold extended its recovery and Wall Street suffered a violent AI-led selloff that sent the Nasdaq sharply lower and dragged Bitcoin below $76,000.

What Happened Yesterday?

Thursday produced another dramatic reversal across global markets.

Wednesday’s post-election equity rally disappeared as technology and semiconductor stocks collapsed.

At the same time, US Treasury yields declined as investors moved into government bonds and expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening eased.

Gold benefited from that move.

Bitcoin did not.

The cryptocurrency increasingly traded like a high-beta technology asset and dropped sharply alongside the Nasdaq.

🇬🇧 Bank of England Raises Rates to 4.00%

The Bank of England delivered the expected 25-basis-point increase yesterday, taking Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00%.

The vote was more hawkish than a simple rate increase might suggest.

Eight members supported the 25bp increase, while Catherine Mann preferred a larger 50bp move to 4.25%.

The Bank warned that higher energy costs have materially increased inflation risks and projected inflation could approach 5% by the middle of 2027.

The official decision and Monetary Policy Summary are available directly from the

Bank of England
.

Sterling initially benefited from the hike, but the broader risk-off environment and anticipation of US payrolls limited follow-through buying.

🇺🇸 US Labour Data Still Looks Resilient

Yesterday’s US labour indicators complicated the picture ahead of NFP.

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K, below expectations around 196K.

That suggests layoffs remain relatively contained.

At the same time, third-quarter Nonfarm Productivity increased 3.6%, while Unit Labour Costs unexpectedly fell 0.7%.

This combination is particularly interesting for the Federal Reserve.

Strong productivity with falling unit labour costs suggests the economy may be able to produce more without generating the same degree of wage-driven inflation pressure.

That partly explains why Treasury yields fell even though jobless claims remained strong.

💼 NFP Arrives After Stronger JOLTS and ADP Signals

Friday’s report does not arrive in isolation.

Earlier this week, JOLTS Job Openings showed labour demand remaining relatively firm.

ADP then reported approximately 86,000 new private-sector jobs in October.

That was stronger than markets expected.

Meanwhile, ISM Services employment improved and US unemployment claims remain low.

That creates an interesting contradiction:

The September NFP report was very weak — but several more recent labour indicators suggest the economy may not be deteriorating as quickly as that headline implied.

🔥 US NFP Today: The Biggest Market Event of the Week

The October Employment Situation will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The official release schedule is confirmed by the

US Bureau of Labor Statistics
.

What Matters More Than the NFP Headline?

• Payroll revisions: September’s weak figure could be revised materially.
• Unemployment: A rise above 4.2% would strengthen the cooling-labour-market narrative.
• Wages: Strong wage growth could keep inflation concerns alive even with weak payroll growth.
• Participation: Changes in labour supply can affect the unemployment rate.
• Average weekly hours: Falling hours can sometimes signal labour weakness before outright layoffs accelerate.

Three NFP Market Scenarios

💵 US Dollar: NFP Could Decide Whether the Election Selloff Continues

The US Dollar remains under pressure after the midterm elections triggered a significant repricing of the US political and fiscal outlook.

DXY is trading in the low-101 region after briefly falling toward the 101 area earlier this week.

Falling Oil prices and lower Treasury yields have removed two important sources of Dollar support.

However, NFP could change that quickly.

A strong employment report would strengthen the argument that the US economy remains resilient enough to tolerate higher interest rates.

A weak report could put the psychologically important 101 level back under pressure.

Support: 101.00 / 100.60
|
Resistance: 101.70 / 102.00

📉 Treasury Yields Become the Transmission Mechanism

The 10-year Treasury yield fell toward approximately 4.83% Thursday as investors moved into government bonds during the technology selloff.

This is important because NFP does not simply move the Dollar directly.

It moves interest-rate expectations first.

🇪🇺 EUR/USD: NFP Tests the Euro’s Post-Election Recovery

EUR/USD is trading just above the 1.1200 region after reaching almost 1.1300 during Wednesday’s Dollar selloff.

The Euro also has domestic support from rising Eurozone inflation and growing discussion around another ECB rate increase.

But Friday’s direction will depend heavily on the US jobs report.

Support: 1.1180 / 1.1120
|
Resistance: 1.1270 / 1.1300

🇬🇧 GBP/USD: BoE Hike Meets US NFP

GBP/USD trades around 1.3450 after yesterday’s Bank of England rate increase.

Sterling continues to benefit from the BoE’s hawkish inflation stance, but traders are reluctant to build large positions before NFP.

The pair is therefore caught between tighter UK monetary policy and uncertainty over the next US rates move.

Support: 1.3420 / 1.3340
|
Resistance: 1.3500 / 1.3560

🇦🇺 AUD/USD: Risk-Off Tech Selloff Pushes Aussie Lower

AUD/USD suffered one of the sharper major-currency declines Thursday.

The pair dropped toward approximately 0.6930 as the Nasdaq rout triggered broader risk aversion.

The Aussie has also lost some monetary-policy support after markets reduced expectations for another near-term RBA hike.

Support: 0.6900 / 0.6850
|
Resistance: 0.6980 / 0.7050

🇳🇿 NZD/USD: Weak Domestic Labour Market Caps Recovery

The New Zealand Dollar remains one of the weaker major currencies.

New Zealand unemployment has risen to 5.7%, while expectations for further immediate RBNZ tightening have faded.

NZD/USD has consequently slipped back toward the 0.5600 area.

Support: 0.5570 / 0.5530
|
Resistance: 0.5650 / 0.5690

🇨🇦 USD/CAD: US and Canadian Jobs Data Collide

USD/CAD trades close to 1.4000 ahead of employment reports from both sides of the border.

The Canadian Dollar is receiving some support as Oil rebounds above $90, but the dramatic decline in crude earlier this week remains a major headwind.

Canada’s own employment report therefore adds another source of volatility.

Support: 1.3970 / 1.3880
|
Resistance: 1.4030 / 1.4100

🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Yen Benefits From Lower Yields and BoJ Expectations

USD/JPY has fallen toward approximately 157.50–157.70.

Lower Treasury yields are helping the Yen.

Recent Bank of Japan minutes also suggested policymakers remain open to further rate increases if inflation remains elevated.

That makes USD/JPY particularly sensitive to any sharp post-NFP move in US yields.

Support: 157.00 / 156.30
|
Resistance: 158.20 / 159.00

🇨🇭 USD/CHF: Dollar Weakness Keeps Pair Near Recent Lows

USD/CHF remains around the low-0.81 region after the Dollar’s post-election decline.

Safe-haven demand has also provided support to the Swiss Franc during the technology-market selloff.

Support: 0.8130 / 0.8080
|
Resistance: 0.8200 / 0.8250

🥇 Gold Price Today: XAU/USD Reclaims $4,100 Ahead of NFP

Gold has become one of the clearest beneficiaries of falling Treasury yields and Dollar weakness.

XAU/USD has climbed back toward and above the $4,100 region, its strongest area in more than two weeks.

But today’s NFP report becomes the next major test.

A strong jobs report could push yields higher again and challenge Gold’s recovery.

A weak report could strengthen the case for another push toward higher buy-side liquidity.

🥈 Silver Price Outlook

Silver remains supported by Gold’s recovery but faces a more complicated backdrop because of the collapse in semiconductor and technology shares.

The metal therefore sits between improving precious-metal demand and concerns about industrial activity.

Support: $51 / $50
|
Resistance: $53.50 / $55

₿ Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Crashes Below $76K

Bitcoin suffered a sharp reversal Thursday.

BTC fell below $76,000 as the technology selloff spread into cryptocurrency markets.

More than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated during the broader risk unwind.

The move is important because Bitcoin is currently behaving much more like a high-beta technology asset than a traditional safe haven.

Friday’s NFP therefore matters through liquidity and Treasury yields.

Support: $75K / $72.5K
|
Resistance: $78K / $80.5K

🛢️ Oil Price Today: WTI Rebounds Above $90

WTI crude has recovered toward approximately $90 after this week’s extraordinary geopolitical selloff.

Oil dropped sharply after the US midterm elections encouraged speculation that political pressure could increase for a negotiated reduction in the US-Iran conflict.

But traders are now reassessing how quickly any diplomatic progress could actually occur.

Middle East risks therefore remain unresolved.

This matters directly to NFP trading because energy prices influence inflation expectations.

Support: $88 / $86
|
Resistance: $92 / $96

🌍 Geopolitics: Iran Risk Has Not Disappeared

The sharp Oil selloff reflected expectations for greater diplomatic pressure following the US midterm elections.

However, the US-Iran conflict and security risks around Persian Gulf shipping remain unresolved.

WTI’s rebound above $90 shows that traders are beginning to question whether the geopolitical risk premium was removed too quickly.

For forex traders, the most important issue is not the political narrative itself.

It is whether Middle East developments materially change Oil supply, inflation expectations and Treasury yields.

📉 US Stocks: Post-Election Rally Erased by AI Rout

Thursday produced one of Wall Street’s largest selloffs of 2026.

The S&P 500 fell approximately 4.4%.

The Dow Jones dropped around 3.4%.

The Nasdaq Composite plunged approximately 5.5%.

The Nasdaq 100 fell even more sharply as semiconductor, AI infrastructure and data-center stocks came under intense selling pressure.

The main concern is changing rapidly.

Investors are no longer simply asking whether AI demand is strong.

They are asking whether:

• AI spending can generate sufficient returns
• Data-center expansion will face tougher regulation
• Power requirements are sustainable
• Memory and semiconductor costs remain manageable
• High financing costs undermine future investment returns

That makes today’s NFP reaction particularly complicated for equities.

A weak jobs report may lower yields, which normally helps technology valuations.

But an extremely weak report could also increase concerns about economic growth.

📊 Forex Market Today: Early Friday Snapshot

Approximate early-session and latest available reference levels. Markets can move rapidly before and after NFP.

TraderFactor Support & Resistance Map

📅 Economic Calendar — Friday, November 6

🎯 TraderFactor NFP SMC / ICT Trading Plan

🔗 Five Correlations That Matter Most Today

NFP ↑ → Treasury yields ↑ → Dollar ↑

This is the most important immediate relationship.

Treasury yields ↓ → Dollar ↓ → Gold ↑

This has powered Gold’s rebound above $4,100.

NASDAQ ↓ → Bitcoin ↓

Crypto’s correlation with high-beta technology assets has strengthened sharply.

Oil ↑ → Inflation expectations ↑ → Rate expectations ↑

WTI’s rebound therefore matters even after the week’s large selloff.

Weak NFP + weak wages → December hike expectations ↓

That combination would likely produce the clearest bearish Dollar signal.

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