MARKET OUTLOOK THIS WEEK | NOVEMBER 9–13, 2026
Market Outlook This Week: US CPI, PPI and AI Earnings in Focus After Strong NFP and BoE–RBA Rate Hikes
Monday, November 9, 2026
Global financial markets enter a critical inflation week after stronger US employment data, two major central-bank rate increases, a sharp oil-price collapse and another turbulent week for technology stocks.
October’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Tuesday, is the main macroeconomic event. Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide another test of inflation pressures before the Federal Reserve’s December monetary policy meeting.
Corporate earnings will also take centre stage, with CoreWeave, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials and several energy companies reporting as investors reassess AI spending, corporate profitability and the outlook for global growth.
The question facing traders is whether inflation will support expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase or offer relief to the Dollar, Gold and rate-sensitive equities.
❓ QUESTION OF THE DAY
Will Tuesday’s US CPI report confirm that inflation remains too persistent for the Federal Reserve to pause interest-rate increases, or will softer price pressures reverse Friday’s Dollar rally and support Gold, Bitcoin and global stocks?
Macro transmission:
CPI → Fed Rate Expectations → Treasury Yields → US Dollar → Gold, Forex, Stocks and Bitcoin
📌 Key Market Takeaways
- US CPI: October headline inflation is expected near 0.3% month-on-month, with core CPI around 0.2%. The report arrives Tuesday, November 10.
- US PPI: Producer inflation follows Friday, November 13, providing another view of price pressures across the supply chain.
- NFP: October payrolls increased by 165,000, substantially exceeding expectations near 65,000.
- Unemployment: The US unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, strengthening the case for restrictive monetary policy.
- Federal Reserve: Rates remain at 3.75%–4.00%, with markets pricing a high probability of another increase in December.
- RBA and BoE: Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85%, while the Bank of England increased Bank Rate to 4.00%.
- Gold: Bullion recovered strongly last week and climbed above $4,120 in early Monday trading.
- Oil: Crude suffered a substantial weekly decline as traders reassessed Middle East supply risks and diplomatic prospects.
- US Stocks: The Nasdaq fell around 3.4% last week as concerns about AI valuations and regulation triggered heavy selling.
- Earnings: CoreWeave reports Tuesday, followed by Cisco and Applied Materials on Thursday.
⚡ Quick Answer: What Will Move Markets This Week?
US CPI is the week’s most important scheduled market catalyst. Following stronger-than-expected employment growth, a higher-than-forecast inflation reading could reinforce expectations of another Fed rate increase, supporting the Dollar and Treasury yields.
A softer reading could reduce rate-hike expectations, help Gold extend its recovery and relieve pressure on growth stocks. However, the response will also depend on Oil, geopolitical headlines and AI company earnings.
🔎 Last Week’s Market Recap: November 2–6, 2026
Last week delivered important developments across employment, inflation expectations, central-bank policy and global risk sentiment.
1. Strong NFP Rewrites the Federal Reserve Outlook
+165K
Forecast: approximately +65K
4.1%
Previous: 4.2%
+0.4%
Annual wage growth: 3.1%
Friday’s employment report showed that the US labour market remains more resilient than many investors had expected.
- Payrolls increased by 165,000 in October.
- September employment growth was revised higher from 29,000 to 60,000.
- August and September revisions added a combined 84,000 jobs.
- Unemployment declined to 4.1%.
- Wages rose 0.4% monthly, keeping inflation concerns alive.
Market implication: The economy may be strong enough to withstand elevated borrowing costs. This gives the Fed greater room to focus on returning inflation to its 2% target rather than responding immediately to growth concerns.
After NFP, market-implied probabilities of a December rate increase moved toward 80%, although these expectations can change sharply following CPI.
2. JOLTS, ADP and ISM Show Continued Resilience
Earlier labour-market and business-activity indicators also suggested that the US economy remained relatively firm.
- JOLTS: September job openings stood near 7.5 million, with layoffs remaining contained.
- ADP: Private-sector hiring strengthened during October.
- ISM Manufacturing: The October PMI rose to 55.5, indicating faster expansion.
- ISM Services: The PMI remained expansionary at 54.5.
- Services Prices: The ISM prices index remained elevated at 73.0, highlighting persistent cost pressure.
Importantly, strong demand and elevated business prices can coexist with a slowing inflation rate. Traders therefore need Tuesday’s CPI figures to determine whether those pressures are reaching consumers.
3. Bank of England and RBA Deliver Rate Hikes
🇬🇧 Bank of England: Bank Rate Rises to 4.00%
The Bank of England increased rates by 25 basis points on November 5 as higher energy costs raised the risk of persistent inflation.
- New Bank Rate: 4.00%
- Current UK inflation: 3.5%
- BoE inflation projection: around 5% by mid-2027
- Key concern: energy prices spreading into wages and other household costs
GBP implication: Higher interest rates can support Sterling, but slower economic growth and a stronger Dollar could limit GBP/USD gains.
🇦🇺 Reserve Bank of Australia: Rates Rise to 4.85%
On November 3, the RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%.
- The RBA remains concerned about domestic inflation.
- Higher fuel costs have increased price pressures.
- Inflation is not expected to return to the middle of the target range until mid-2028.
- Further economic weakness could complicate future policy choices.
AUD implication: The higher rate provides some support, but the Australian Dollar remains sensitive to China, commodity demand and risk sentiment.
4. Oil Crashes as Geopolitical Risk Premium Retreats
Crude Oil experienced one of its sharpest weekly declines in years as traders priced a greater possibility of diplomatic progress in the US-Iran conflict.
- WTI ended Friday around $90.83 per barrel.
- Brent finished near $98 per barrel.
- Oil benchmarks lost approximately 13% or more over the week, depending on the contract.
- Lower oil prices reduced some immediate energy-driven inflation fears.
However, the conflict remains unresolved. Shipping disruptions and any deterioration in negotiations could quickly restore the geopolitical premium.
5. Wall Street Suffers Another AI-Led Selloff
US equities experienced violent swings after the midterm elections, with concerns about potential changes to AI and data-centre regulation adding to valuation worries.
| US Index | Nov 6 Close | Weekly Performance |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | −2.68% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,579.42 | −3.37% |
| Dow Jones | 51,285.73 | −0.94% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,754.11 | −2.05% |
Friday’s technology rebound limited some losses, but did not erase the week’s damage.
Important distinction: Strong earnings growth and strong economic data do not necessarily prevent equity corrections when valuations, financing costs and regulatory uncertainty rise simultaneously.
6. Canadian Jobs Highlight a Different Labour-Market Picture
- Canadian employment was little changed in October, declining by approximately 4,700.
- The unemployment rate increased to 6.7%.
- Annual wage growth was approximately 2.2%.
This contrast between stronger US employment and softer Canadian labour conditions may support USD/CAD, although oil prices remain a powerful competing influence.
🔥 US CPI: Tuesday, November 10 — The Main Event
The October CPI report will be published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
The previous release showed that September headline inflation rose 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% over the preceding 12 months. Core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.
| Inflation Measure | September Actual | October Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI MoM | +0.6% | About +0.3% |
| Core CPI MoM | +0.3% | About +0.2% |
| Headline CPI YoY | 3.7% | Not scheduled for most series |
| Core CPI YoY | 2.6% | Not scheduled for most series |
⚠️ Important CPI Reporting Note
Because the US government shutdown prevented collection of most October 2025 consumer-price data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish October 2026 year-over-year changes for CPI series without that comparison month.
For this release, traders should prioritise the available month-on-month headline and core readings, alongside the detailed price components.
What Should Traders Look for Inside CPI?
- Core Services: Persistent services inflation can support a hawkish Fed.
- Shelter: Housing and rent inflation remain important drivers of underlying prices.
- Energy: Fuel prices can produce large movements in headline inflation.
- Goods: Tariffs, import costs and supply disruptions can affect merchandise prices.
- Broadening pressures: Inflation spreading beyond a few categories would be harder for policymakers to dismiss.
Three Potential CPI Market Scenarios
🔴 Hot CPI
Core inflation exceeds expectations.
- Fed hike expectations strengthen.
- Treasury yields may rise.
- Dollar may appreciate.
- Gold and NAS100 face pressure.
🟢 Cool CPI
Headline and core inflation undershoot forecasts.
- December hike expectations may decline.
- Dollar may weaken.
- Gold could extend gains.
- Growth stocks may recover.
🔵 Mixed CPI
Headline and core figures point in different directions.
- Markets reassess underlying inflation.
- Dollar may trade unevenly.
- Initial volatility may reverse.
- Friday PPI becomes important.
🏦 Federal Reserve: Inflation, Employment and the December Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve left its target rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% during its October 28 meeting.
Two policymakers preferred a 25-basis-point increase, demonstrating that inflation concerns remained significant even before the latest NFP report.
Inflation also remains elevated under the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures measure:
- September headline PCE: 3.6% annually.
- September core PCE: 3.1% annually.
- September headline CPI: 3.7% annually.
- Federal Reserve inflation target: 2%.
Strong employment, elevated inflation and continued economic expansion support the argument for keeping borrowing costs restrictive.
However, falling oil prices, improving productivity and financial-market volatility may reduce pressure for further increases if inflation data moderate.
The Federal Reserve’s Key Question
Is inflation persistent enough to justify another rate hike, or is earlier tightening already doing enough to slow future price pressures?
That question will determine the direction of Treasury yields, the Dollar and many global asset classes this week.
🌐 Global Interest-Rate Comparison
| Central Bank | Policy Rate | Current Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| US Federal Reserve | 3.75%–4.00% | December hike risk; CPI |
| Bank of England | 4.00% | Energy inflation; UK GDP |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | 4.85% | Persistent inflation; growth |
| European Central Bank | 2.50% deposit rate | Energy pressures; eurozone GDP |
| Bank of Japan | 1.25% | Yen weakness; inflation |
| Bank of Canada | 2.50% | Oil prices; softer employment |
Currency markets respond not only to the absolute level of interest rates, but also to how investors expect those rates to change relative to other countries.
📅 Economic Calendar: November 9–13, 2026
Release times shown are US Eastern Time (ET) where applicable.
| Date | Event | Importance | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 9 | China October CPI/PPI; US wholesale inventories; Fed speakers | Medium | AUD, NZD, USD, commodities |
| Tue, Nov 10 | US October CPI and Core CPI — 8:30 a.m. ET | VERY HIGH | DXY, Gold, EUR/USD, US indices |
| Tue, Nov 10 | US NFIB Small Business Optimism; Canadian policy deliberations | Medium | USD, CAD, risk sentiment |
| Wed, Nov 11 | US Veterans Day; Treasury market closed; German final CPI | Medium | Bond liquidity, EUR/USD |
| Thu, Nov 12 | UK Q3 GDP and September monthly GDP | HIGH | GBP/USD, GBP crosses |
| Thu, Nov 12 | US Weekly Jobless Claims — 8:30 a.m. ET | Medium | USD, Treasury yields |
| Thu, Nov 12 | US Existing Home Sales; major technology earnings | Medium–High | Equities, NAS100, yields |
| Fri, Nov 13 | US October PPI and Core PPI — 8:30 a.m. ET | HIGH | USD, Gold, yields, stocks |
| Fri, Nov 13 | Eurozone Q3 GDP second estimate | Medium | EUR/USD, European equities |
🇨🇳 China Inflation and Global Growth
China reported October consumer inflation of 0.7% year-on-year, with core inflation at 0.8%.
Chinese inflation, manufacturing demand and trade activity matter for commodity-sensitive currencies, particularly AUD and NZD.
🇬🇧 UK GDP After the BoE Hike
Thursday’s GDP release will test whether the British economy can withstand higher interest rates.
- Stronger GDP may support Sterling and justify keeping monetary policy restrictive.
- Weak GDP may raise concerns about the economic cost of further tightening.
- GBP/USD will remain sensitive to both UK growth data and Tuesday’s US inflation figures.
🏭 Friday’s US Producer Price Index
October PPI is expected to moderate from September’s unusually strong monthly readings.
- Headline PPI forecast: approximately +0.4% MoM.
- Core PPI forecast: approximately +0.3% MoM.
- September headline PPI: +1.3% MoM.
- September core PPI: +0.7% MoM.
PPI measures prices received by producers. Some components may also help shape expectations for future PCE inflation.
💼 Corporate Earnings Calendar: November 9–13, 2026
Inflation is the main macroeconomic catalyst, but corporate earnings may determine whether Wall Street can recover from the latest technology-sector selloff.
| Date | Company | Ticker | Timing | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 9 | Constellation Energy | CEG | Before Open | Electricity demand and data-centre power |
| Mon, Nov 9 | KKR | KKR | Before Open | Private credit, financing and investments |
| Mon, Nov 9 | Occidental Petroleum | OXY | After Close | Oil prices and energy profitability |
| Mon, Nov 9 | Take-Two Interactive | TTWO | After Close | Consumer demand and gaming outlook |
| Mon, Nov 9 | Rocket Lab | RKLB | After Close | Space investment and growth stocks |
| Tue, Nov 10 | TransDigm | TDG | Before Open | Aerospace demand and industrial margins |
| Tue, Nov 10 | CoreWeave | CRWV | After Close | AI cloud infrastructure and capital spending |
| Wed, Nov 11 | Franco-Nevada | FNV | Scheduled | Gold royalties and mining profitability |
| Thu, Nov 12 | Nebius Group | NBIS | Scheduled | AI infrastructure and investment demand |
| Thu, Nov 12 | Cisco Systems | CSCO | After Close | Networking and AI enterprise spending |
| Thu, Nov 12 | Applied Materials | AMAT | After Close | Semiconductor equipment and chip investment |
| Thu, Nov 12 | Nu Holdings | NU | After Close | Digital banking, consumer finance and credit |
Selected scheduled earnings as of November 9. Exact reporting times may change; confirm with company investor-relations announcements before trading.
Why Cisco, Applied Materials and CoreWeave Matter
CoreWeave: Can AI Infrastructure Spending Hold Up?
- Revenue growth and contracted customer demand.
- Capital expenditure and infrastructure financing.
- Debt, interest expenses and operating cash flow.
- Management guidance for future AI capacity.
Cisco: Is Enterprise AI Demand Still Expanding?
- Networking orders linked to AI data centres.
- Enterprise and cloud customer spending.
- Revenue, margins and forward guidance.
- Demand for high-performance networking infrastructure.
Applied Materials: Semiconductor Investment Test
- Chip equipment orders and customer investment.
- Advanced semiconductor manufacturing demand.
- Profit margins and future spending plans.
- Any signs of slower AI infrastructure investment.
Market implication: Earnings that confirm strong AI demand could stabilise NAS100 sentiment. Disappointing guidance, rising financing costs or weaker capital spending could renew the selloff even if CPI meets forecasts.
🌍 Geopolitics: Iran, Oil and Global Inflation
Geopolitical developments remain important despite Oil’s sharp weekly decline.
- US-Iran negotiations: Potential diplomatic progress has encouraged traders to reduce the risk premium in crude prices.
- Strait of Hormuz: Shipping disruptions and security risks remain relevant to global energy supply.
- US politics: The midterm election outcome has renewed debate about future AI, data-centre and technology-sector regulation.
- China: Trade activity, domestic demand and technology restrictions may influence commodity currencies and global equities.
- Oil and inflation: Lower energy prices can ease some inflation concerns, but a reversal would renew pressure on consumers and central banks.
Energy–Inflation Connection
Oil rises → Energy costs increase → Inflation risks rise → Rate-hike expectations strengthen.
Oil falls → Energy pressures may ease → Inflation expectations can moderate → Bond yields may decline.
These relationships are not automatic. Central banks also monitor core inflation, growth, wages and inflation expectations.
📊 Market Snapshot: Monday, November 9
Early Monday reference prices and the latest available US equity closing levels:
| Asset | Reference Price | Market Context |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | Approximately 102.2 | Supported by strong NFP |
| EUR/USD | Approximately 1.1150 | Under Dollar pressure |
| GBP/USD | Approximately 1.3360 | BoE hike versus US CPI |
| AUD/USD | Approximately 0.6880 | RBA support, risk-sensitive |
| NZD/USD | Approximately 0.5560 | Weak recent momentum |
| USD/CAD | Approximately 1.4120 | Canada jobs and Oil |
| USD/JPY | Approximately 158.2 | US–Japan yield differential |
| USD/CHF | Approximately 0.8200 | Dollar versus safe-haven demand |
| Gold Spot | Approximately $4,123 | Early Monday recovery |
| Silver Spot | Approximately $53.15 | Following Gold higher |
| Bitcoin | Approximately $73,700 | Risk sentiment remains fragile |
| WTI Crude | Approximately $90.50 | Geopolitical repricing |
| Nasdaq 100 | 26,989.99 | Friday cash-index close |
| Dow Jones | 51,285.73 | Friday cash-index close |
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | Friday cash-index close |
Market references are indicative and timestamp-dependent, not live quotes. Spot Gold is referenced at approximately 04:28 GMT on November 9; US cash indices reflect November 6 closing prices. Broker CFD quotes may differ.
📈 TraderFactor Support and Resistance Map
The following zones are indicative technical planning areas for November 9–13. They are not guaranteed turning points and should be confirmed using live charts and current market structure.
| Asset | Reference | Support Zones | Resistance Zones | Conditional Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 102.2 | 101.50 / 101.00 | 102.80 / 103.50 | Firm above 101.50 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1150 | 1.1100 / 1.1050 | 1.1210 / 1.1260 | Range to bearish |
| GBP/USD | 1.3360 | 1.3300 / 1.3200 | 1.3450 / 1.3550 | Range |
| AUD/USD | 0.6880 | 0.6850 / 0.6800 | 0.6950 / 0.7000 | Volatile |
| NZD/USD | 0.5560 | 0.5525 / 0.5500 | 0.5600 / 0.5660 | Bearish below 0.5600 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4120 | 1.4050 / 1.4000 | 1.4200 / 1.4300 | Firm above 1.4050 |
| USD/JPY | 158.20 | 157.00 / 156.00 | 159.00 / 160.00 | Bullish above 157 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8200 | 0.8140 / 0.8050 | 0.8250 / 0.8300 | Mixed |
| Gold XAU/USD | $4,123 | $4,080 / $4,050 | $4,150 / $4,200 | Recovery while above $4,080 |
| Silver | $53.15 | $51.50 / $50 | $54 / $55 | Recovery, volatile |
| Bitcoin | $73.7K | $72K / $70K | $76K / $80K | Fragile below $76K |
| WTI Crude | $90.50 | $88 / $85 | $93 / $97 | Bearish below $93 |
| NAS100 | 26,990 | 26,400 / 26,000 | 27,400 / 28,000 | Fragile |
| US30 | 51,286 | 50,800 / 50,200 | 52,000 / 53,000 | Volatile |
| SPX500 | 7,377 | 7,300 / 7,200 | 7,480 / 7,600 | Cautious |
💵 US Dollar Index: CPI Determines Whether the Recovery Continues
DXY — Dollar Outlook
The Dollar recovered sharply after Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment data. DXY entered Monday around the 102 region.
Higher US interest-rate expectations increase the relative appeal of Dollar-denominated assets.
- Bullish scenario: Hot CPI supports Treasury yields and a move toward 102.80 or 103.50.
- Bearish scenario: Softer CPI weakens rate-hike expectations and exposes 101.50 and 101.00.
- Watch: US two-year yields, core CPI, Fed speeches and Oil.
💱 Major Forex Pairs: Weekly Analysis
🇪🇺 EUR/USD — Euro Faces US Rate Pressure
EUR/USD remains close to 1.1150 after Friday’s Dollar recovery.
- Strong US inflation may push the pair toward 1.1100 and 1.1050.
- Softer inflation may encourage recovery toward 1.1210–1.1260.
- Eurozone GDP on Friday will help clarify the European growth outlook.
- The ECB’s 2.50% deposit rate leaves an important policy-rate differential against the US.
🇬🇧 GBP/USD — BoE Rate Hike Meets US CPI and UK GDP
Sterling has additional monetary-policy support after the Bank of England raised rates to 4%.
- Tuesday’s CPI will influence the Dollar side of GBP/USD.
- Thursday’s UK GDP could provide a second major directional catalyst.
- Weak UK growth may limit gains even after the BoE’s hawkish decision.
- A sustained recovery above 1.3450 could improve the short-term technical outlook.
🇦🇺 AUD/USD — RBA Tightening Versus Global Risk Sentiment
The Australian Dollar faces conflicting influences.
- The RBA’s increase to 4.85% supports relative yield appeal.
- Global equity volatility reduces appetite for risk-sensitive currencies.
- China’s inflation and growth outlook remain important.
- US CPI could determine whether AUD/USD can recover toward 0.6950.
🇳🇿 NZD/USD — Kiwi Remains Sensitive to the Dollar
NZD/USD remains vulnerable after a difficult period for growth-sensitive currencies.
- Stronger Dollar momentum may expose 0.5525 and 0.5500.
- A calmer equity market and softer US CPI could support a rebound.
- China-related demand and wider Asia-Pacific sentiment remain relevant.
🇨🇦 USD/CAD — Oil Collapse and Weak Canadian Jobs
USD/CAD is particularly exposed to the contrast between the two countries’ employment reports.
- US employment surprised positively.
- Canadian unemployment increased to 6.7%.
- Lower Oil prices may weigh on the Canadian Dollar.
- Improved Oil sentiment or softer US CPI could reverse some USD/CAD gains.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY — Yield Differentials Keep the Yen Under Pressure
USD/JPY remains around 158 as US Treasury yields stay elevated relative to Japanese rates.
- Hot CPI could strengthen the Dollar and move USD/JPY toward 159–160.
- Softer CPI could help the Yen recover.
- The BoJ’s 1.25% policy rate keeps further Japanese tightening in focus.
- Traders should remain alert to official comments about excessive currency volatility.
🇨🇭 USD/CHF — Safe-Haven Demand Meets Dollar Strength
The Swiss Franc could benefit if global equities experience another sharp selloff.
- Strong US CPI would ordinarily support the Dollar.
- Worsening geopolitical risks may strengthen demand for the Franc.
- The pair’s direction will depend on which force dominates.
🥇 Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Above $4,100 Ahead of CPI
Gold begins the week stronger, rising above $4,120 in early Monday trading after gaining approximately 5% during the previous week.
The recovery reflects a combination of falling Oil prices, reduced inflation fears, shifting yields and renewed demand for defensive assets.
But Gold still faces an important risk: stronger US data could increase expectations of a December Fed rate hike.
Gold Bullish Scenario
- CPI and core CPI come in below forecasts.
- The Dollar and Treasury yields decline.
- Gold sustains a break above $4,150.
- Upside liquidity around $4,180–$4,200 comes into focus.
Gold Bearish Scenario
- Core inflation surprises higher.
- US yields and DXY strengthen.
- Gold loses the $4,080 area.
- Price revisits $4,050 or lower support.
🥈 Silver Price Outlook
Silver has recovered alongside Gold, with early Monday prices trading around $53.
- Falling yields can support precious metals.
- Industrial demand concerns may limit Silver’s relative performance.
- Watch $54–$55 resistance and $51.50–$50 support.
₿ Bitcoin: Risk Sentiment and Liquidity Remain Crucial
Bitcoin remains vulnerable after another unsettled week in technology and cryptocurrency markets. It traded around $73,700 during early Monday reporting.
- Higher rate expectations can weigh on speculative assets.
- Technology-stock weakness may intensify selling pressure.
- Potential changes in US cryptocurrency regulation remain a concern.
- Softer CPI could improve liquidity expectations and support a recovery.
A move back above $76,000 would improve the immediate outlook. A break below $72,000 could expose the psychological $70,000 region.
🛢️ WTI Crude Oil: Can Prices Stabilise After the Collapse?
WTI traded near $90.50 early Monday after last week’s heavy decline.
Oil is balancing possible diplomatic progress with unresolved Middle East supply and shipping risks.
- Bullish risk: Negotiations break down or supply disruptions intensify.
- Bearish risk: Diplomatic progress reduces the risk premium further.
- Macro consequence: Sustained Oil weakness may reduce future headline inflation pressures.
- Watch: Developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
📉 US Stocks: NAS100, US30 and S&P 500
NASDAQ 100 — AI Earnings Meet CPI
NAS100 enters a decisive week following the AI and semiconductor selloff.
- Hot CPI may lift yields and pressure technology valuations.
- Cool CPI may support a relief rally.
- CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials earnings will test confidence in AI infrastructure spending.
- A failure to recover important resistance zones may leave the index vulnerable to further selling.
DOW JONES — Industrial Growth Versus Borrowing Costs
The Dow remains influenced by economic growth expectations and the cost of capital.
- Stronger industrial activity provides fundamental support.
- Persistent inflation could increase financing costs.
- Corporate earnings and recession expectations remain important.
- Watch 50,800 support and 52,000 resistance.
S&P 500 — Inflation Could Decide the Recovery
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,376.86 after losing approximately 2.7% over the week.
- A softer CPI report could improve sentiment toward equities.
- Higher yields could limit gains in large-cap growth stocks.
- Positive earnings guidance may provide support.
- Watch whether any rebound is broad-based rather than concentrated in a few technology names.
🎯 TraderFactor SMC / ICT Trading Plan for CPI Week
High-impact inflation releases can produce liquidity sweeps and sharp reversals across Gold, EUR/USD and US equity indices.
Before Tuesday’s CPI
- Identify the previous week’s high and low.
- Mark Monday’s high and low.
- Map daily and H4 order blocks and fair value gaps.
- Identify premium and discount zones.
- Watch DXY and US two-year Treasury yields.
- Mark Asian and London session liquidity.
After CPI Is Released
- Avoid chasing the first volatile move.
- Look for a clear liquidity sweep.
- Wait for displacement and a market structure shift.
- Identify a valid retracement into an FVG or order block.
- Confirm the setup against higher-timeframe direction.
- Use predetermined risk and protective stops.
- Be prepared for reversals if the headline and core figures conflict.
SMC sequence: Liquidity Sweep → Displacement → MSS → FVG/Order Block → Opposing Liquidity.
Traders can continue building their technical understanding in the TraderFactor Trading Academy.
🔗 Five Market Correlations to Monitor
1. CPI and YieldsHot CPI may lift Treasury yields and increase rate-hike expectations.
2. Dollar and GoldA stronger Dollar can pressure Gold, especially when real yields rise.
3. Oil and InflationChanges in energy prices can alter future inflation expectations.
4. NAS100 and BitcoinRisk-off selling in technology shares may spill into crypto.
5. Earnings and GrowthTechnology guidance can affect investor confidence beyond the reporting companies.
🔗 Continue Your Market Research
Friday’s NFP Market Analysis
Review the positioning in the Dollar, Gold, Oil and technology stocks before the October employment report.
Learn Divergence in Forex Trading
Explore how divergence can help identify weakening momentum around major liquidity zones and economic releases.
🎯 TraderFactor Bottom Line: November 9–13
- CPI is the main event: Tuesday’s monthly inflation figures could determine whether December Fed hike expectations strengthen or ease.
- NFP changed the backdrop: Stronger payrolls, lower unemployment and firmer wages reduce the urgency for monetary easing.
- Global central banks remain hawkish: Recent BoE and RBA increases demonstrate that inflation remains a global policy concern.
- Gold: Recovery momentum remains encouraging, but higher Treasury yields could trigger profit-taking.
- Forex: Dollar direction will remain heavily influenced by CPI surprises and relative central-bank policy expectations.
- Oil: Diplomatic developments and supply risks remain central to the inflation outlook.
- Stocks: Technology earnings may determine whether last week’s AI-driven selloff stabilises or resumes.
- Friday: PPI offers a final important inflation check before the weekly close.
The most important lesson for this week: A strong economy, elevated inflation and volatile financial markets can coexist. Traders should follow the interaction between inflation, central-bank expectations, Treasury yields and corporate earnings rather than relying on a single headline.
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Market data and editorial note: Analysis prepared for Monday, November 9, 2026. Economic expectations are forecasts, not actual results. Technical levels are indicative planning zones. Prices change continuously, and earnings schedules may be revised.
About the Author
Phyllis Wangui
Senior Market Analyst, TraderFactor
Phyllis Wangui is a seasoned financial markets analyst with over a decade of experience in forex and CFD brokerage evaluation.
Specializing in regulatory compliance and risk assessment, she leads the TraderFactor reviews team in delivering transparent, data-driven broker breakdowns that help retail traders navigate complex offshore and Tier-1 trading environments.
Reviewed by Alex Kanyi
Head of Compliance | TraderFactor
“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”
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Last Updated: November 2026
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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner’s prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
