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AUD/USD Holds Steady Amid Mixed Economic Indicators

Key Statistics – Trend Terms (October 2023)

Unemployment Rate3.7%
Participation Rate66.8%
Employment to Population Ratio64.4%
Underemployment Rate6.4%
Monthly Hours Worked1,937 million hours

Key Statistics – Seasonally Adjusted Terms (October 2023)

Unemployment Rate3.7%
Participation Rate67.0%
Employment to Population Ratio64.5%
Underemployment Rate6.3%
Monthly Hours Worked1,939 million hours
Full-Time Employment9,828,000 (+17,000)
Part-Time Employment4,345,500 (+37,900)

Australian Employment Data Impact

The AUD/USD pair has seen little movement, holding steady around the 0.6500 mark. This comes in the wake of the latest Australian employment data release, which reported a seasonally adjusted employment change of an increase by 55K in October. This figure stands in contrast to market expectations, which had projected a growth of only 20K, further surpassing the previous month’s increase of 6.7K.

Despite this positive news, the AUD/USD has dipped slightly below the 0.6500 psychological level. Traders now await more direction from the upcoming Australian employment data release.

AUDUSD Daily Chart

AUDUSD Daily Chart

China’s Economic Influence

China’s improved activity data in October has stirred increased risk appetite among investors, contributing to a rally in the AUD/USD. Moreover, recent data from Australia indicates that the Wage Price Index rose by a record 1.3% in Q3, suggesting that inflation may not cool down as expected.

This development, coupled with the upward revision to second-quarter data, might not drastically alter the Reserve Bank of Australia’s approach but does hint at potential future shifts in economic policy.

US Economic Data and Its Implications

Contrary to expectations of a 0.1% increase, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.5% in October. The retail sales data from the US also surprised market participants with a decline of 0.1%, defying expectations of a more significant drop of 0.3%.

These figures point to a downward trend in inflation and weaker consumer spending. However, the US Dollar has strengthened, likely due to a correction following Tuesday’s slide and supported by a rebound in US yields.

Meanwhile, the focus of investors is shifting towards the weekly jobless claims data, set to be released on Thursday.

Looking Ahead

The AUD/USD pair’s movement continues to be influenced by both Australian and US economic data. As market participants closely watch the release of further employment data from Australia, speculations are rife for a gain of 20,000 jobs following September’s increase of 6,700.

A weaker report could pose challenges for the Reserve Bank of Australia in considering rate hikes. Moreover, the upcoming Melbourne Inflation Expectation Report is also expected to cause significant market reactions.

Australian Employment Data for October 2023 Shows Steady Growth

The latest labour force statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for October 2023 show a steady growth in employment. According to the ABS, employment increased by 28,300 people (0.2%) to 14,145,400 people.

Despite the growth in employment, the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The participation rate, which refers to the number of people either employed or actively looking for work, decreased slightly to 66.8%.

Underemployment, which refers to people who are employed but would like to work more hours, also remained steady at 6.4%.

Hours Worked Decreased Slightly

The ABS reported that monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 2.3 million hours (-0.1%) to 1,937 million hours in October 2023.

State-Wise Breakdown

The data also provided a breakdown of the labour force status by sex for each state and territory. For more detailed information, refer to the tables provided in the ABS report.

The steady growth in employment indicates the strength of the Australian economy. However, the slight decrease in participation rate and hours worked suggests there may be some underlying issues that need to be addressed.

Economists will be watching these trends closely, as they can provide valuable insights into the overall health of the Australian economy.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


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  • Zahari Rangelov

    Zahari Rangelov is an experienced professional Forex trader and trading mentor with knowledge in technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management and diversification. He has been involved in the foreign exchange markets since 2005, when he opened his first live account in 2007. Currently, Zahari is the Head of Sales & Business Development at TraderFactor's London branch. He provides lectures during webinars and seminars for traders on topics such as; Psychology of market participants’ moods, Investments & speculation with different financial instruments and Automated Expert Advisors & signal providers. Zahari’s success lies in his application of research-backed techniques and practices that have helped him become a successful forex trader, a mentor to many traders, and a respected authority figure within the trading community.

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