Forex Market Today: Dollar Hits Two-Month High After Hot US PMIs, Focus Trump-Xi Meeting

Financial markets enter Thursday digesting a major repricing in US interest-rate expectations after Wednesday’s Flash PMI data came in much stronger than expected.

US manufacturing, services and overall business activity accelerated sharply, strengthening the case for additional Federal Reserve tightening.

The reaction was immediate.

The US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.10%, the Dollar Index climbed toward 101.10, Gold fell toward the $4,300 region and Wall Street pulled back from recent highs.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Washington today during Xi’s official state visit.

Markets will watch for concrete developments involving trade and economic relations.

Today brings another busy session with monetary-policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Norges Bank, fresh US labour and housing data, and the US-China summit in Washington.

🔥 Yesterday’s PMIs Changed the Market

The most important development Wednesday came from the United States.

The Composite PMI reached its highest level since July 2021.

Employment growth was also the strongest in more than four years, while input-cost inflation accelerated.

That combination is uncomfortable for the Federal Reserve.

Growth remains strong, but inflation pressures are not disappearing.

🇪🇺 Eurozone PMIs Were Strong Too

The US was not the only economy showing resilience.

Eurozone Composite PMI jumped to 53.1 from 52.0, reaching its highest level since April 2023.

Services climbed to 53.0, while manufacturing remained firmly in expansion at 52.7.

Germany provided much of the upside surprise, particularly through services.

Stronger activity combined with rising price pressures keeps further ECB tightening firmly in the market discussion.

🇬🇧 UK Growth Slows as Inflation Pressure Builds

The UK delivered a less comfortable combination.

Composite PMI slowed to 51.7 from 52.5.

Services also fell to 51.7, although manufacturing improved to 52.0.

That leaves the Bank of England facing weak growth alongside persistent price pressure.

🇦🇺 Australian Jobs Beat Forecast — But Unemployment Rises

Australia delivered another mixed economic signal early Thursday.

Employment increased by approximately 39,500 in August, comfortably above expectations near 20,000.

However, unemployment increased from 4.5% to 4.6%, the highest level in roughly five years.

The participation rate increased to 67.1%.

Markets still heavily favour another RBA increase at next week’s meeting despite the rise in unemployment.

AUD/USD Slides Toward 0.7030

AUD/USD has fallen toward 0.7025–0.7035.

Dollar strength is currently outweighing support from RBA rate-hike expectations.

The psychological 0.7000 region now becomes particularly important.

💵 Dollar Hits a Two-Month High

The Dollar Index has climbed toward 101.10.

Wednesday’s PMI surprise, higher Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations have combined to strengthen the US currency.

The Dollar’s next major test will be whether the 101 area becomes support rather than resistance.

If US yields remain above 5%, Dollar pullbacks may continue attracting buyers.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Above 5%

The US 10-year Treasury yield surged toward 5.11%–5.13% Wednesday.

That represents one of the most important cross-asset developments of the week.

Higher yields increase borrowing costs and can reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Gold.

They also place valuation pressure on technology and other growth stocks.

Forex Market Today

EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades around 1.1380, near a two-month low.

Despite strong Eurozone PMIs, the rise in US yields has allowed Dollar strength to dominate.

The Euro needs to regain approximately 1.1420–1.1450 to improve its short-term structure.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has slipped toward 1.3230–1.3240.

Slower UK services growth combined with broad Dollar strength has pushed Sterling toward its weakest levels in several months.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains close to 158.00.

The pair continues to benefit from the large US-Japan yield differential despite the Bank of Japan’s recent rate increase.

The 158.50–159.00 region remains an important upside liquidity area.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD trades around 0.5675.

The Kiwi remains vulnerable to Dollar strength and tighter global financial conditions.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD trades around 1.4100–1.4110.

Oil volatility and broad Dollar strength remain the major drivers.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF trades around 0.8250 ahead of today’s Swiss National Bank decision.

The SNB is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, making guidance and the inflation outlook particularly important for CHF.

🥇 Gold Hit by Strong Dollar and 5% Treasury Yields

Gold has pulled back toward approximately $4,300–$4,325.

The combination of a stronger Dollar and rising Treasury yields has created a much tougher environment for bullion.

Yesterday’s break lower followed the unexpectedly strong US PMI numbers.

For Gold traders, the important question now is whether this becomes a sustained bearish repricing or a liquidity sweep before another recovery.

🛢️ Oil Volatility Returns

WTI is trading around the $91–$92 region.

Crude rebounded sharply Wednesday as Middle East tensions returned to focus, but prices have eased again during early Thursday trading.

Oil remains one of the most important variables for the wider market.

A renewed rally would increase inflation concerns and could push Treasury yields even higher.

Continued weakness would provide some relief to the inflation outlook.

₿ Bitcoin Falls Back Below $85K

Bitcoin trades around $84,000–$84,500.

The pullback comes as Treasury yields and the Dollar move higher.

BTC remains particularly sensitive to changes in global liquidity conditions.

• Support: $82K / $80K
• Resistance: $85.5K / $87.5K

📉 Wall Street Retreats as Yields Surge

US equities fell Wednesday as investors repriced the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve tightening.

• S&P 500: 7,706.03 | -0.75%
• Dow Jones: 51,511.59 | -0.68%
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,936.04 | -1.13%
• Nasdaq 100: approximately 30,470 | -0.85%

Rate-sensitive growth stocks came under the greatest pressure as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%.

🌍 US-China Summit Adds Headline Risk

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Washington today during Xi’s official state visit.

Markets will watch for concrete developments involving trade and economic relations.

Rather than anticipating the political outcome, traders may want to monitor the actual announcements and the response in AUD, NZD, equities and commodities.

Current Market Prices

Prices below are approximate reference levels and can vary between brokers and exchanges.

Support & Resistance

These are analytical reference zones rather than exact trade-entry recommendations.

📅 Economic Calendar – Thursday, September 24

✅ 🇦🇺 Australia Employment – Released

Employment: +39.5K
Unemployment: 4.6%
Participation Rate: 67.1%

🔥 🇨🇭 Swiss National Bank Rate Decision

Current rate: 0.00%
Consensus: No change

Watch CHF reaction to the inflation forecast and policy guidance rather than the headline decision alone.

🇸🇪 Riksbank Rate Decision

Current rate: 1.75%

The policy announcement and Monetary Policy Report could generate SEK volatility.

🇳🇴 Norges Bank Rate Decision

Current policy rate: 4.25%

The new rate path may matter more for NOK than the headline decision.

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims

Consensus: approximately 201K
Previous: 196K

🇺🇸 US New Home Sales

Consensus: approximately 615K
Previous: 607K

🇺🇸 Fed Speakers

Comments from Federal Reserve officials remain particularly important following Wednesday’s PMI-driven jump in rate-hike expectations.

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 US-China Summit

Markets will monitor today’s Washington meeting for concrete trade and economic announcements that could influence global risk sentiment.

TraderFactor SMC / ICT Focus

Final Market Outlook

Yesterday’s PMI session significantly changed the short-term macro picture.

US growth is not merely holding up — the September surveys suggest it accelerated sharply.

That matters because stronger growth is arriving alongside renewed price pressures.

The result has been higher Treasury yields, a stronger Dollar and renewed pressure on Gold and equities.

Europe also showed stronger-than-expected growth, while the UK presented a more difficult combination of slower expansion and rising costs.

Australia’s employment report adds another mixed signal: strong job creation but a higher unemployment rate.

Today, the market moves from PMI data into a new round of central-bank decisions.

The SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank could create substantial regional currency volatility before US labour and housing data arrive.

Meanwhile, the US-China meeting adds a separate headline risk for global equities, AUD, NZD and commodities.

The key market question has changed.

It is no longer whether the US economy is slowing — it is whether growth is now too strong for the Fed to stop tightening.

Current Market Bias

Frequently Asked Questions