Let us start with the monthly forex trading chart, which is already a bit older but it gives a very good forex trading signal of where we are in the long-term cycle of this currency pair which is heavily traded by traders and investors in the forex markets.
From the ’70s to 2011 a forex trading pulse movement has developed, which can be defined as wave [A] of the grand cycle. After the bottom of 2011, we are in the development of wave [B].
A potential target for the development of this wave, in the long run, is the area around 220-260. I would like to make a small digression here for anyone who thinks that Central Banks can manipulate the long-term trend – they CAN NOT, neither any forex brokers nor any entity providing forex services and trading platforms.
This is an old forex trading chart of mine that traces the development in the forex markets of the 5th wave. Throughout the collapse, the Bank of Japan has been very busy trying to stop the appreciation of the yen and is constantly intervening directly in the forex markets (marked with red arrows on the chart), but on the weekly forex chart these interventions remain just noise and the trend continues where it is going.
The irony is that at the bottom the BOJ is abandoning interventions and saying it will start lending to Japanese foreign companies to acquire assets. However, this bitter lesson is very instructive and definitely proves that the long-term trend cannot be manipulated and this could not affect the forex markets or any traders who are involved in forex trading.
Let’s go back to today and look at the weekly forex chart below.
Let’s go back to the present time. After the bottom of 2011. I consider the rise to 125.80 as an impulse with two extended waves (which is very rare) or A-B-C (zig-zag) correction for wave (A) or (W), respectively.
Then we have a long correction for wave (C) or (X), which has developed as a complex correction or double zig-zag with shortened Y wave. In my opinion, this correction has ended at the bottom of January 2021 and we are developing the next ascending cycle. In the longer term, the potential target of this upward cycle is the area around 146-150.
On the daily forex trading chart, I am currently considering two trading scenarios. According to the first (with red on the chart), we are developing wave 4 and there will be an upward movement for wave 5 with a potential target area around 118.
The other possible option (with blue on the chart) is yet to begin the development of wave 3, this means direct acceleration to zone 121, lateral consolidation, and rise to about 124-125.
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