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GBP/USD Pair’s Resilience Amid Economic Tug of War

Despite closing the fourth consecutive day in the red, the GBP/USD pair is making a stubborn stand slightly north of the 1.2200 mark as we enter the weekend. The pair’s resilience stems from the UK’s Q3 GDP expansion at an annualized rate of 0.6%, which surpassed market predictions of 0.5%.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

GBPUSD daily chart

A Mixed Picture in the UK Economy

Despite the better-than-expected GDP growth, other data from the UK painted a mixed economic picture. Industrial Production stagnated, Manufacturing Production saw a marginal increase, while Total Business Investment experienced a quarterly drop.

Reaction from the Forex Market

Interestingly, these mixed economic indicators did not induce a substantial reaction in the GBP/USD pair. The US Dollar gained momentum following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks suggesting a lack of confidence in achieving a sufficiently restrictive stance to bring inflation down to the target 2%.

The Fed’s Expected Stance

Markets currently anticipate a 90% likelihood of the Fed maintaining its policy stance. Should other policymakers echo Powell’s sentiment, the USD could see further strengthening as we approach the weekend.

US Stock Index Futures and Risk Sentiment

US stock index futures are exhibiting little change on the day. Any positive shift in risk sentiment could potentially cap the USD’s gains in the American session.

A Broader Look at the UK Economy

Zooming out to look at the broader economic landscape, the UK’s monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in September 2023, following an uptick of 0.1% in August 2023. These figures represent a downward revision from the 0.2% growth previously reported.

Economic Data Highlights

UK GDPQ3 2023+0.6%
Industrial ProductionSep 20230.0%
Manufacturing ProductionSep 2023+0.1%
Total Business InvestmentQ3 2023-4.2%
Monthly Real GDPSep 2023+0.2%
Consumer-facing Services OutputSep 2023-0.2%
Production OutputSep 20230.0%
Construction Sector GrowthSep 2023+0.4%


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  • Zahari Rangelov

    Zahari Rangelov is an experienced professional Forex trader and trading mentor with knowledge in technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management and diversification. He has been involved in the foreign exchange markets since 2005, when he opened his first live account in 2007. Currently, Zahari is the Head of Sales & Business Development at TraderFactor's London branch. He provides lectures during webinars and seminars for traders on topics such as; Psychology of market participants’ moods, Investments & speculation with different financial instruments and Automated Expert Advisors & signal providers. Zahari’s success lies in his application of research-backed techniques and practices that have helped him become a successful forex trader, a mentor to many traders, and a respected authority figure within the trading community.