Forex Market Today: Dollar, gold, oil, crypto and stocks react to cooling US inflation, flat PPI and renewed US-Iran tensions around Hormuz.

Forex Market Today: Dollar, Gold, Oil, Crypto & Stocks React to Cooling Inflation and Hormuz Risk

TraderFactor Market Report: August 14, 2026

Global markets remain highly sensitive to two competing forces: signs of cooling US inflation and renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. US CPI eased to 3.4%, while PPI was unchanged, strengthening expectations that inflationary pressure may be moderating. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, keeping monetary policy expectations uncertain. At the same time, conflicting US-Iran claims over Hormuz and reports of attacks involving energy vessels are keeping oil and safe-haven assets in focus. Traders are now assessing whether softer inflation can support stocks, gold and crypto while geopolitical risk continues influencing currencies and crude oil.

Support and Resistance Snapshot

Forex Factory Calendar

Market Analysis

Currencies / Forex

The dollar remains caught between cooling inflation and persistent geopolitical risk. The 3.4% CPI reading and flat PPI reduce immediate pressure for additional Federal Reserve tightening, while the weak labor-market signal from the latest NFP report reinforces the possibility that economic momentum is slowing. However, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, meaning policymakers still have reasons to remain cautious.

From a price perspective, DXY remains close to the 100 level. A sustained break above 100.30 could strengthen the bullish dollar case, while weakness below 99.40 would increase the possibility of a broader pullback.

EURUSD

EURUSD remains supported as softer US inflation reduces some of the dollar’s rate advantage. The pair is holding above 1.1500, keeping the short-term structure constructive.

A sustained move above 1.1600 could strengthen the bullish outlook, while a break below 1.1500 would weaken momentum.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD remains firm around 1.3500 as traders balance softer US inflation against fresh UK economic data. The pair continues to benefit from reduced dollar pressure.

Support around 1.3450 remains important, while a sustained break above 1.3550 could open the way toward higher levels.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD remains sensitive to global risk appetite and movements in the US dollar. Cooling US inflation provides some support, but geopolitical uncertainty can quickly pressure higher-beta currencies.

The pair remains neutral while trading between 0.5830 and 0.5920.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD remains relatively resilient, although risk sentiment and commodity prices remain important drivers.

The Australian dollar may benefit from a softer USD, but continued Middle East uncertainty could limit aggressive buying.

USDCAD

USDCAD remains pressured as crude oil prices remain elevated. Stronger oil prices can support the Canadian dollar and reduce upside pressure on the pair.

A break below 1.3850 would strengthen the bearish technical outlook, while 1.4000 remains the key upside barrier.

USDJPY

USDJPY remains elevated near 159.27 as the dollar continues to trade strongly against the yen.

However, softer US inflation and potential shifts in Federal Reserve expectations could limit upside momentum. Traders are also watching the 160.00 region closely.

USDCHF

USDCHF remains relatively stable as traders balance dollar weakness against safe-haven demand.

A sustained move above 0.8180 would improve the bullish outlook, while a break below 0.8080 could signal renewed downside pressure.

Crypto / Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains around the $63,000 region as traders assess the impact of softer US inflation on liquidity and interest-rate expectations. Cooling CPI and flat PPI can improve the environment for risk assets by reducing fears of additional monetary tightening.

However, geopolitical uncertainty and a still-firm dollar remain obstacles. BTCUSD is currently caught between support near $62,000 and resistance around $65,000. A break above $65,000 could attract fresh momentum, while a move below $62,000 would increase downside risk.

Gold

Gold remains highly sensitive to the combination of lower rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. Softer US inflation reduces pressure from Treasury yields, while continuing US-Iran tensions around Hormuz maintain demand for defensive assets.

Technically, gold is trading near $4,330 after pulling back from recent highs. Support around $4,300 is important, while $4,400 remains the key resistance zone. A sustained move above $4,400 could reopen the path toward higher levels, while a break below $4,300 could encourage further profit-taking.

Stocks / Equities

US equities continue benefiting from the possibility that cooling inflation could reduce pressure on monetary policy. The latest CPI and PPI readings have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may not need to respond aggressively to inflation in the near term.

However, geopolitical risk remains a major uncertainty. Any escalation around Hormuz could push oil prices higher and increase concerns about corporate costs and inflation. NAS100, US30 and SP500 remain technically constructive while holding above their key support levels.

NAS100

NAS100 remains bullish around 30,079 as softer inflation supports expectations for less restrictive monetary policy.

Support is near 29,600, while resistance is around 30,500. Technology stocks remain sensitive to Treasury yields, making upcoming Fed expectations important.

US30

US30 remains supported above 53,500 as investors continue to favor established companies amid resilient economic conditions.

Resistance near 54,500 remains important. Higher oil prices could create sector-specific pressure, but softer inflation remains supportive for broader sentiment.

SP500

SP500 remains constructive around 7,812 as investors respond positively to cooling inflation.

Support near 7,700 remains important, while 7,900 is the next major resistance zone. A continued decline in yields could support further upside.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical headlines remain one of the biggest sources of market volatility.

The US and Iran continue making competing claims over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping traffic remains below normal, while the UAE has accused Iran of attacking two ADNOC-linked vessels. These developments keep energy-supply concerns elevated and provide an important risk premium for crude oil.

The uncertainty also affects gold, the US dollar and risk assets. Any progress toward negotiations could reduce safe-haven demand and pressure oil lower, while further escalation could produce the opposite reaction.

Economic Calendar

Wednesday — US CPI

US July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% previously and broadly matching expectations. Core CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year.

The result was interpreted as modestly supportive for risk assets because it reduced immediate pressure for further Fed tightening. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Thursday — US PPI

US July PPI was unchanged at 0.0% month-over-month, below the 0.2% increase economists had expected. The data further reduced expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike.

PPI is important because producer prices can provide information about future inflation pressures and feed into other inflation measures, including PCE.

Friday — Core Retail Sales

Core retail sales will be watched for clues about the strength of US consumer demand.

Stronger spending could support the dollar by suggesting the economy remains resilient, while weaker spending could reinforce expectations that economic momentum is slowing.

Final Outlook

Markets are entering a more complicated phase as cooling US inflation competes with elevated geopolitical risk.

CPI at 3.4% and PPI at 0.0% suggest that inflationary pressure is moderating, while the weak NFP report points toward a softer labor market. Together, these developments could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further.

However, the Strait of Hormuz remains a major wildcard. Any disruption to energy flows could push oil higher and potentially revive inflation concerns. For now, gold and equities remain supported by softer rate expectations, while oil retains a geopolitical premium.

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