The financial markets witnessed notable activity among major currencies and gold during the week. Key pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY experienced significant market pressures influenced by geopolitical uncertainties, monetary policies, and investor sentiment. Gold maintained its status as a safe haven, with record highs reinforcing investor demand. Volatility was a recurring theme across the board.

XAU/USD Performance

Gold demonstrated resilience, reaching a record $3,057.21/oz on March 20 before retreating slightly by the end of the week. The metal finalized at $3,015.43/oz, consolidating a 1% weekly gain. This marked its third consecutive weekly rise. Factors influencing the strong gold performance included lingering geopolitical uncertainty and speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite a stronger dollar weighing on prices, safe-haven demand remained robust due to intensified geopolitical tensions and broader global economic risks.

Technical Analysis for XAU/USD

Gold (XAU/USD) ended the week at $3,015.43 per ounce, reflecting a 1% gain. The metal showed consistent upward momentum driven by safe-haven demand. The early part of the week saw a dip to $2,986.45 amidst profit-taking. However, buyers stepped in near this level, pushing prices above $3,000. Strengthening geopolitical concerns further supported the recovery. The weekly price action confirmed that buyers remain dominant, capitalizing on market uncertainties.

Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s immediate support rests at $2,986, marking the week’s low. This level held firm despite short-term bearish pressure. Below this, $2,950 serves as critical support, as it aligns with recent Fibonacci retracements. On the upside, resistance is noted at $3,030, a key barrier tested mid-week. A break above this could lead to the next target of $3,070. Sellers may regain control near $3,100, a psychological level for further resistance.

Moving Averages

The 50-day moving average sits at $2,975, offering solid support. This suggests sustained bullish momentum over the medium term. Meanwhile, gold remains above its 200-day moving average at $2,850, indicating a strong overall uptrend. The convergence of shorter moving averages around $3,000 implies a critical decision point for the market in the following week.

RSI and Other Indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold closed at 68, nearing overbought territory. This indicates possible consolidation or mild corrective pressure in the near term. However, RSI readings above 50 reiterate that bullish conditions dominate. The MACD histogram shows increasing bullish divergence, signaling underlying strength. Volume trends reflect healthy participation in the recent rally, further supporting positive sentiment.

Potential Trends

Gold remains poised for further gains if external uncertainties persist. A sustained close above $3,030 could trigger a rally toward $3,070 or higher. However, RSI nearing overbought conditions could limit immediate upside movement. Conversely, a breach of $2,986 could attract sellers, pushing prices back to $2,950. Monitoring geopolitical factors and central bank rhetoric will be crucial to predicting future price action. Expect volatility as investors reassess risks and yields.

EUR/USD Observations

The euro ended the week lower against the dollar, falling by 0.6% to $1.08223. This was its first weekly decline since late February. The dip stemmed from profit-taking after an extended euro rally earlier this quarter. The upcoming reciprocal tariff updates on April 2 created an atmosphere of caution, limiting bullish momentum. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates reassured dollar strength. Investors were also cautious about the eurozone’s fiscal reforms despite fresh optimism surrounding infrastructure budgets.

Drivers Behind EUR/USD Movements

The U.S. dollar benefited from renewed interest rate differential advantages. At the same time, the euro’s rally faced hurdles amid concerns about sustainability in eurozone-wide financial initiatives. The focus now shifts to forthcoming tariff implications that could affect trade-sensitive currencies like the euro.

Support for EUR/USD is located at $1.0800, a critical level during the sell-off. Breaking below this could trigger declines toward $1.0750. On the upside, resistance is evident at $1.0865, near this week’s high point. A break above $1.0900 may reignite bullish sentiment for new gains. However, technical indicators like RSI suggest neutral conditions, pointing to potential consolidation next week. Central bank dynamics and U.S. data will guide the pair’s next direction.

GBP/USD Market Dynamics

The GBP/USD pair displayed mixed signals throughout the week, ultimately oscillating between bullish and bearish pressures. With recent short-term gains, the pair tested resistance levels around 1.3015. However, analysts observed a tendency for bearish corrections following such movements. Elliott Wave theory projections indicated possible longer-term rebounds above 1.2560, targeting the 1.3500–1.4000 range. The Bank of England’s cautious stance also added uncertainty, limiting bullish potential.

Immediate support lies at 1.2960, safeguarding against deeper declines. A breach may pave the way toward 1.2900, strengthening bearish sentiment. Resistance stands firm at 1.3050, with a higher hurdle at 1.3100. Buyers must reclaim these levels for further upside progress. Technical indicators like the RSI hover in neutral territory, suggesting range-bound trading. Next week’s market direction hinges on U.K. economic data and evolving risk sentiment.

USD/JPY Trends

USD/JPY exhibited heightened volatility, closing the week above 149.50, signaling strength in favor of the U.S. dollar. The pair rebounded sharply after midweek losses near 148.18. Investors noted continued dollar support, driven by interest rate differentials. The Bank of Japan’s conservative outlook further undermined yen performance, awaiting clarity on potential sector-specific U.S. tariffs. Analysts predict technical thresholds for USD/JPY gains if the pair sustains movement beyond ¥150.

Support is firmly positioned at 148.85, guarding against deeper retracements. A break below may trigger declines toward 148.00, reinforcing downside risks. On the resistance side, 150.00 remains a crucial hurdle for sustained bullish momentum. A clear break above could lead USD/JPY toward 150.50 or higher. Neutral RSI levels suggest room for movement in either direction. The pair’s trajectory will hinge on U.S. yields and Bank of Japan policy expectations in the coming week.

AUD/USD Challenges

The Australian dollar ended the week subdued near 0.6302. A bearish trend persisted with expectations of a further decline below 0.5945. Analysts highlighted brief bullish corrections but maintained a view of dominance by sellers. The currency faced pressures from global commodity trade worries and overall weak sentiment amid fluctuating equity markets.

Rebound Possibilities

Potential rebounds hinge on breaking early-week resistance of 0.6395. However, technical charts indicated broader downward momentum remains intact, limiting growth avenues.

Conclusion

The week concluded with a strong dollar overshadowing major pairs, while gold retained its upward momentum. Each currency pair revealed underlying economies’ battles with fiscal challenges or cautious central bank policies. Market participants will continue tracking geopolitical events and interest rate developments for clearer trajectories ahead. Volatility will likely persist in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer:

All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner’s prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.