Forex Market Today: Dollar Hits 18-Month High as US NFP Takes Center Stage After Strong ISM Data

Forex Market Today begins with the US Dollar trading at its strongest level in roughly 18 months as traders prepare for the biggest economic release of the week: US Nonfarm Payrolls.

The Dollar Index has pushed above the important 102.00 level, supported by high Treasury yields, resilient US economic activity and continued geopolitical uncertainty.

Yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing report provided another reason for traders to remain cautious about inflation. Manufacturing remained firmly in expansion, employment strengthened and the Prices Paid component surged.

That came after Wednesday’s softer PCE inflation report and stronger-than-expected ADP employment data — leaving markets with a mixed but still resilient US macro picture heading directly into NFP.

Gold remains below $4,200, EUR/USD has fallen toward multi-month lows, GBP/USD is trading below 1.3200, AUD/USD is testing the 0.6900 region and Bitcoin remains trapped around the mid-$80K area.

What Happened Before NFP?

The market received several important pieces of US economic data before today’s employment report.

📉 PCE Inflation Eased but Spending Stayed Strong

Headline PCE inflation increased 0.3% month-over-month in August and remained at 3.4% year-over-year.

Core PCE rose 0.2% on the month and remained at 3.0% annually.

But consumer spending increased a strong 0.9%, suggesting households remained active despite elevated borrowing costs.

👷 ADP Employment Beats Expectations

Private-sector employment increased by approximately 90,000 in September.

That was stronger than market expectations and kept alive the argument that the US labour market remains resilient.

However, ADP should not be treated as a direct predictor of NFP.

🏭 ISM Manufacturing Shows Growth — and Inflation Pressure

Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, confirming the ninth consecutive month of manufacturing expansion.

The details were particularly interesting.

• New Orders: 55.3
• Production: 56.7
• Employment: 52.7
• Prices: 77.9

The Employment Index improved from 51.2 to 52.7.

But the biggest move came from prices.

The Prices Index jumped from 71.1 to 77.9, showing that input-cost pressures remain significant.

🔥 US NFP Today: The Main Event

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September Employment Situation today at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Market expectations are centred around roughly 90K–95K new jobs after the stronger-than-expected 162K increase recorded in August.

The unemployment rate is expected around 4.1%.

Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase around 0.3% month-over-month.

Possible NFP Market Scenarios

💵 US Dollar Index Hits 18-Month High

The US Dollar Index today has moved above 102.00, reaching its strongest level since approximately April 2025.

That makes today’s NFP particularly important.

The Dollar is entering the data release already extended after a powerful multi-session advance.

• Support: 101.70 / 101.40
• Resistance: 102.25 / 102.60

Holding above 102 after NFP would confirm considerable short-term Dollar strength.

A sharp rejection below 102 could instead signal profit-taking.

Forex Market Today: Major Currency Pairs

EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD has fallen toward approximately 1.1230–1.1250, its weakest region in more than a year.

Dollar strength is being compounded by concerns surrounding European fiscal conditions.

• Support: 1.1200 / 1.1150
• Resistance: 1.1280 / 1.1330

GBP/USD Forecast

GBP/USD trades below the 1.3200 level and remains close to four-month lows.

• Support: 1.3150 / 1.3100
• Resistance: 1.3220 / 1.3280

AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD has extended its decline toward the 0.6900 region despite this week’s RBA tightening.

• Support: 0.6880 / 0.6850
• Resistance: 0.6950 / 0.7000

NZD/USD Forecast

NZD/USD remains under pressure from broad Dollar demand and elevated US yields.

• Support: 0.5580 / 0.5550
• Resistance: 0.5650 / 0.5700

USD/CAD Forecast

USD/CAD remains supported by broad Dollar strength, although high Oil prices provide some support for CAD.

• Support: 1.4140 / 1.4100
• Resistance: 1.4200 / 1.4250

USD/JPY Forecast

USD/JPY remains around the 157 region after failing to sustain a move above 158.

High Treasury yields support USD/JPY, but intervention concerns continue to limit aggressive upside chasing.

• Support: 156.50 / 155.50
• Resistance: 158.00 / 159.00

🥇 Gold Price Today: XAU/USD Waits for NFP Below $4,200

Gold remains below $4,200 as the Dollar trades near an 18-month high.

Wednesday’s softer PCE report briefly helped Gold recover, but the move faded as Treasury yields remained elevated.

That tells us something important.

Inflation alone is no longer driving Gold.

The interaction between yields, Dollar strength, employment data and geopolitical risk is now more important.

₿ Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Waits for Jobs Data

Bitcoin remains around the $83K–$85K region.

BTC briefly benefited from Wednesday’s softer inflation report, but the recovery faded as Treasury yields remained elevated.

• Support: $82K / $80K
• Resistance: $85.5K / $87.5K

NFP could influence Bitcoin indirectly through its effect on bond yields and the Dollar.

🛢️ WTI Oil Holds Near $93

WTI crude remains around the $93 region after another volatile session.

Energy supply concerns remain elevated, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to limit downside pressure.

Oil remains important because it feeds directly into inflation expectations.

🌍 Geopolitics Remains a Background Market Driver

Energy markets remain sensitive to continued Middle East uncertainty and potential disruptions to global supply routes.

Higher Oil prices can reinforce inflation concerns even when traditional inflation indicators begin to cool.

That is one reason the recent decline in PCE inflation has not produced a sustained fall in Treasury yields.

European markets are also dealing with renewed fiscal concerns, adding another layer of pressure to the Euro.

For forex traders, geopolitics remains important primarily through its effect on Oil, inflation expectations, bond yields and safe-haven demand.

📈 Stock Market Today: Wall Street Stabilizes Before NFP

US equities finished slightly higher Thursday after an extremely volatile bond-market session.

• S&P 500: 7,666.45 | +0.19%
• Dow Jones: 50,926.56 | +0.04%
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,871.60 | +0.04%
• Nasdaq 100: +0.31%

The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached approximately 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, before retreating toward 5.23%.

That reversal helped equities recover from earlier weakness.

Today’s jobs data could create another sharp bond-market move.

Current Market Snapshot

Support & Resistance Levels

📅 Economic Calendar Today – Friday, October 2

TraderFactor NFP SMC / ICT Trading Focus

📚 Prepare for NFP with TraderFactor

Final Forex Market Outlook

Everything this week has been building toward today.

PCE inflation showed some moderation.

ADP employment showed continued private-sector hiring.

ISM Manufacturing showed continued expansion, improving employment and extremely strong price pressure.

And the Dollar has responded by breaking above 102.

Now the official US employment report gets the final word.

A strong jobs report could validate the recent Dollar breakout.

A weak report could trigger a sharp correction because Dollar positioning has already become increasingly stretched.

For traders, the challenge today is not predicting the first NFP candle.

It is waiting to see which liquidity is taken — and whether the market confirms the move afterward.

Current Market Bias Before NFP

Forex Market Today FAQ