📈 Get ready for a week of market action in forex and currency as central bank speeches and economic data take center stage.
💶 Will the Fed continue to cool the bull run in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq?
💷 Can the Euro recover against the US dollar and British pound?
💵 Keep an eye on FTSE 100’s ‘Shooting Star’ pattern and silver prices.
➡️ Cryptos updates
🎉 Slow market due to Juneteenth Holiday in the U.S.
📊 Plus, mixed results for Asian stocks as US-China talks continue. Stay informed and seize the opportunities in finance and business!
🤝 In-depth analysis on US stocks, Euro currencies & more.
Markets worldwide may have a subdued start to the new trading week due to the Juneteenth holiday observed in the US.
The British pound has held onto its recent gains, despite experiencing a slight dip in value against the US dollar. This is due to a recent uptick in hawkish language surrounding the Bank of England’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Even with uncertainty around UK CPI, strong employment data and high inflation levels point towards a likely 25bps increment.
However, with global recessionary fears on the rise, money markets may be overly optimistic with their 73% chance of a hike and projected 125 bps worth of cumulative rate hikes for 2023. As a result, cable may experience a downward trend.
Keep an eye on the TraderFactor’s economic calendar for more insight.
Euro Outlook Against Top Currencies
The Euro is facing strong resistance against the US dollar, while the outlook for Euro crosses is getting brighter.
According to recent reports, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to hike rates and underwhelming Euro area macro data may help the Euro recover against some of its peers. However, the Euro’s long-standing extended position may limit the gains.
Although the Euro has rebounded against the US dollar, it remains soft against the Australian dollar and the British pound.
Additionally, ECB’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in 22 years has signaled further rate hikes in the future.
This means Euro’s value could potentially rise, as ECB’s President Christine Lagarde stated the bank has yet to reach its goals.
Keep track of the key levels and trends in Euro crosses to stay updated on the status of the Euro.
Market Action Ahead with Spate of Central Bank Speeches and Economic Data
Get ready for an exciting week in the global forex and currency markets!
The MSCI All Country World index reached a 14-month high, the S&P 500 grew 2.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.8%, while the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.0% and the Hang Seng index rose 3.3%. Expectations of more China stimulus and hopes that US interest rates are peaking fueled this good news.
However, the Fed’s trajectory of interest rates is being questioned by the market, with rate cuts starting as soon as next year. Markets will be looking for cues from Fed Chair Powell’s speech this week.
Other central banks are in hiking mode, but last week China cut a few key policy rates to boost hopes for more stimulus in coming months.
This week brings a spate of forex and currency central bank speeches, including Powell’s, Japan Reuters Tankan and monetary policy meetings, UK CPI for May, Canada retail sales for April, and more.
Expect to see a bearish US dollar outlook, a bullish breakout signal for the Euro, more gains for the British Pound against the US Dollar, a sinking US Dollar boosting the Australian Dollar, and hawkish Fed speak attempting to cool the bull run in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Plus, Gold is setting up for a possible retest of $2000/oz.
Get ready for a week filled with forex and currency market action!
FTSE 100 on Alert as ‘Shooting Star’ Pattern Suggests Potential Downfall
Last week, FTSE 100 struggled to break its resistance zone of 7,655-7,679 and ended up creating a ‘Shooting Star’ candlestick pattern on Friday. This has put the index under short-term pressure and similar caution has been observed in Asian markets overnight.
Any slip below the tentative support line at 7,603 may push the 200-day SMA at 7,549 into view along with the early June low at 7,546.
Moreover, the key resistance lies in the upper boundary of the range between mid-May low to June highs at 7,655 to 7,688.
Juneteenth Holiday
Markets worldwide may have a subdued start to the new trading week as the US observes the Juneteenth holiday. Although Treasury yields held steady last Friday, the US dollar showed minor signs of improvement after a recent post-Fed sell-off.
Silver prices experienced some dip-buying, with buyers successfully defending a key support confluence at the lower trendline of a rising channel pattern (US$23.80 level).
Looking ahead, the next resistance to overcome could be the US$24.70 level, while any breakdown of the channel pattern may bring the US$23.00 level into focus.
Keep a close eye on silver prices this week.
Mixed Results for Asian Stocks as US-China Talks Continue
The stock markets in Asia opened with mixed results today, with the Nikkei down by 0.38%, ASX up by 0.24%, and KOSPI down by 0.70%. This follows a week of volatility and uncertainty, as investors react to the latest economic data and geopolitical developments.
One of the key events last week was the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its expected rates and yield curve control policy. This move was widely expected, but it also signaled that inflation will slow down in the coming months, which could impact the overall market sentiment in the region.
Another significant development was the “candid” and “constructive” talks between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in Anchorage, Alaska.
The two sides discussed a wide range of issues, from human rights to trade and climate change, in what was seen as a test of the new Biden administration’s approach to Beijing.
However, whether these talks will lead to positive outcomes remains to be seen, as both sides expressed their grievances and concerns without making any major concessions or commitments.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY currency pair is testing an upper trendline resistance, and a bullish crossover between its 100-day and 200-day moving averages may push it towards the 145.20 level. This could signal a shift in the forex market, especially if the US Federal Reserve maintains its dovish stance on interest rates and inflation.
As always, investors need to stay vigilant and informed to make the most of the opportunities and manage the risks in the dynamic world of finance and business.
Crypto Updates
Last week, the crypto market capitalisation saw a spike of 1.5% and reached $1.066 trillion. However, Bitcoin experienced turbulence and ended the week down 4% at $26,500, while Ethereum lost 1% and other top altcoins fell ranging from 0.4% (TRON) to 6.4% (XRP) except for BNB, which gained 2.6%.
Despite the volatility, Bitcoin found support below $25,000, and its positive equity market traction led to it formally closing above its 200-week average.
However, since the equity market is overbought, more downward risks may push BTCUSD lower, keeping it within the bearish trend. The only way to break this trend is for a rally above $27.2K, previous local highs, and the 50-day moving average.
Bloomberg reports that Bitcoin’s contribution to the total market value of all cryptocurrencies has reached its highest level since mid-autumn 2021. This could indicate that traders may prefer to invest in Bitcoin over altcoins.
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