Iran denies peace talks, triggering fresh risk-off. AUD/USD below 0.7000, gold under $4,400. Flash PMIs today. Full market update with key levels.
Iran Denies Trump Talks as Risk-Off Returns: PMIs to Test Markets
By Phyllis Wangui – Published: March 24, 2026 |
Monday saw a sharp risk-on rally after US President Trump announced that the US had held “productive talks” with Iran, suggesting a potential de-escalation. Stocks surged, the dollar sold off, and oil prices tumbled.
But Tuesday paints a different picture.
Tehran denies any talks. According to Iranian state media, no direct or indirect communication is taking place with Washington. Senior military adviser Mohsen Rezaei added that the war will continue until Iran receives full compensation for damages.
Key Takeaways
- Geopolitical whiplash: Stocks rallied Monday after Trump claimed “productive talks” with Iran, but Tuesday brings fresh uncertainty as Tehran denies any truce.
- Risk-off returns: AUD/USD dives below 0.7000, gold slips under $4,400, and the US Dollar finds bids as Middle East tensions persist.
- Oil steady above $90: WTI climbs back to mid-$90.00s on supply fears, despite Monday’s brief relief.
- Crypto resilient: Bitcoin reclaims $70,000 as AI tokens lead gains amid the geopolitical noise.
- PMIs in focus: Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US will test the strength of the global economy today.
📅 Last verified: March 24, 2026
Current Market Snapshot (March 24, 2026)
| Asset | Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | ~99.30 | +0.2% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1590 | -0.2% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3400 | -0.1% |
| USD/JPY | 158.60 | +0.3% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6950 | -0.8% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3735 | +0.1% |
| Gold | $4,375 | -0.6% |
| Silver | $66.50 | -1.0% |
| WTI Crude | $91.50 | +0.5% |
| Bitcoin | $70,300 | +1.2% |
| S&P 500 | 6,607 | +0.5% (Monday) |
Iran War: Mixed Signals Keep Markets on Edge
Key developments overnight:
- Reports of renewed strikes on Iran’s gas infrastructure in Isfahan and Khorramshahr.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, disrupting global oil flows.
- Israel has reportedly begun “extensive strikes” on Iranian infrastructure in Tehran.
The result? A return of risk aversion. The US Dollar is finding bids again, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar are under pressure.
Forex Pair Analysis
EUR/USD: Slips Below 1.1600 as Dollar Recovers
The euro is trading near 1.1590, down from Monday’s highs. The pair remains sensitive to risk sentiment and today’s PMI data. Key support at 1.1520; resistance at 1.1620.
GBP/USD: Weakens Amid Risk-Off Mood
Cable is holding near 1.3400, but upside momentum is fading. UK PMI data could provide the next catalyst. Support at 1.3330; resistance at 1.3450.
USD/JPY: Regains Traction Above 158.00
The yen is under pressure after Japan’s soft National CPI print tempered BoJ rate hike expectations. USD/JPY is trading near 158.60, with intervention risks looming as the pair approaches recent highs.
AUD/USD: Dives Below 0.7000
The Aussie is the day’s biggest loser, trading near 0.6950. The combination of risk aversion and softer commodity prices is weighing heavily. The RBA’s hawkish stance offers a floor, but further downside toward 0.6897 is possible if risk sentiment sours.
USD/CAD: Oil Supports Loonie
USD/CAD is steady near 1.3735. Higher oil prices (WTI above $91) are supporting the Canadian Dollar, offsetting broad USD strength.
Gold: Slips Below $4,400 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Emerge
Gold is trading near $4,375, extending its decline. The precious metal is caught between competing forces:
- Bearish: A stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields as markets price in a higher probability of Fed rate hikes due to inflation risks from energy prices.
- Bullish: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty should support safe-haven demand, but the USD’s dominance is currently winning out.
Key levels: Support at $4,350 and $4,300; resistance at $4,450 and $4,500.
Oil: Holds Above $90 on Supply Fears
WTI crude is trading near $91.50, recovering from Monday’s dip. Despite the mixed geopolitical signals, supply concerns remain front and center:
- The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.
- IEA warns the world is losing 11 million barrels of oil per day.
- Iran denies any progress toward peace.
Any actual disruption to Iranian exports could send prices back toward $100.
Crypto: Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000
Bitcoin is trading above $70,000, showing remarkable resilience. AI tokens (FET, TAO, APT) are leading the recovery. The crypto market appears to be decoupling from traditional risk assets, with traders viewing digital assets as an alternative hedge.
Today’s Key Events: Flash PMIs
All eyes are on today’s Flash PMI reports, which will provide the first glimpse of economic activity in March.
| Time (ET) | Country | Event | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3:15 AM | France | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 |
| 3:15 AM | France | Flash Services PMI | 49.9 |
| 3:30 AM | Germany | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 |
| 3:30 AM | Germany | Flash Services PMI | 50.1 |
| 4:00 AM | Eurozone | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 |
| 4:00 AM | Eurozone | Flash Services PMI | 50.8 |
| 4:30 AM | UK | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 53.2 |
| 4:30 AM | UK | Flash Services PMI | 52.5 |
| 9:45 AM | US | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.4 |
| 9:45 AM | US | Flash Services PMI | 52.8 |
Impact on Currencies
| Scenario | EUR/USD | GBP/USD | DXY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong PMIs (>52) | Bullish toward 1.1620 | Bullish above 1.3450 | Bearish toward 99.00 |
| Weak PMIs (<49) | Bearish toward 1.1500 | Bearish toward 1.3330 | Bullish toward 99.80 |
Trader’s Outlook
| Scenario | What to Watch |
|---|---|
| Iran denies truce | Risk-off continues – USD bids, AUD/NZD lower, gold may find support |
| Strong PMI data | Risk-on could return – EUR/USD and GBP/USD rally, dollar softens |
| Weak PMI data | Recession fears add to risk-off sentiment, dollar gains further |
| Oil supply disruption | WTI toward $95, USD/CAD lower, gold supported |
Key Levels to Watch
| Asset | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.00 / 98.80 | 99.80 / 100.00 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1520 / 1.1500 | 1.1620 / 1.1650 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3330 / 1.3300 | 1.3450 / 1.3500 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6897 / 0.6870 | 0.7020 / 0.7050 |
| USD/JPY | 158.00 / 157.50 | 159.20 / 159.80 |
| Gold | $4,350 / $4,300 | $4,450 / $4,500 |
| WTI Crude | $89.00 / $88.00 | $93.00 / $95.00 |
| Bitcoin | $68,500 / $67,000 | $72,000 / $73,000 |
About the Author
This market update was prepared by Phyllis Wangui, Market Analyst at TraderFactor. Phyllis specializes in macroeconomic analysis, central bank policy, and geopolitical risk. She has helped thousands of traders navigate volatile markets with clear, data‑driven insights.
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