Dollar, gold, stocks, crypto and oil outlook ahead of FOMC Minutes. Markets assess weak NFP data, Fed policy, RBNZ decision and ISM Services PMI.

Market Outlook: Dollar, Gold, Stocks, Crypto & Oil Outlook Ahead of FOMC Minutes This Week

Financial markets begin the new week focusing on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, one of the most closely watched events on the economic calendar. Investors continue assessing last week’s weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report alongside Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s commitment to returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. With oil prices retreating below $70 as Middle East tensions ease and attention turning toward the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision, volatility is expected across forex, commodities, cryptocurrencies and global equity markets throughout the week.

Market Analysis

Currencies / Forex

EURUSD

EURUSD begins the week holding near recent highs after last week’s disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls report weakened the dollar. Although hiring slowed considerably, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh maintained a firm stance on inflation, limiting expectations for rapid interest-rate cuts. This week’s FOMC Minutes could provide further clues on how policymakers view inflation risks and the labour market.

Technically, EURUSD remains in an upward trend while trading comfortably above 1.1400. Buyers continue targeting the 1.1480 resistance area, with support around 1.1390 likely to attract fresh demand if the pair pulls back.

GBPUSD

Sterling remains supported as the weaker dollar offsets relatively quiet UK economic data. Market participants are also watching developments from the Bank of England, although attention this week is primarily on US events.

GBPUSD continues producing higher highs and higher lows, suggesting bullish momentum remains intact. Holding above 1.3300 keeps the focus on the 1.3400 resistance level.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD continues benefiting from improving risk appetite and reduced demand for the US dollar. Commodity prices remain relatively stable, supporting the Australian dollar despite uncertainty surrounding global growth.

The pair continues trading above key moving averages, with momentum favouring additional gains toward 0.6980 while support remains near 0.6900.

NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar may experience increased volatility ahead of Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest-rate decision. Markets expect the RBNZ to raise the Official Cash Rate from 2.25% to 2.50%, a move that could support the NZD if accompanied by a hawkish policy statement.

From a technical perspective, NZDUSD remains constructive above 0.5650. A hawkish RBNZ could push the pair toward 0.5730, while a cautious tone may limit upside.

USDCAD

USDCAD remains under modest pressure as softer US dollar sentiment combines with easing but relatively stable crude oil prices. Canada’s employment report later this week may become the primary catalyst for the pair.

Technically, sellers continue defending resistance near 1.4250. A move below 1.4170 would reinforce the short-term bearish outlook.

USDJPY

USDJPY remains elevated despite stronger Japanese inflation data released recently. Tokyo Core CPI continues supporting expectations that the Bank of Japan may gradually tighten monetary policy further, helping stabilise the yen.

Technically, the pair remains above the key 160.00 psychological level, although momentum has slowed. The FOMC Minutes could determine whether the pair resumes its broader uptrend or extends its recent correction.

Crypto / Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin continues to outperform many traditional risk assets after climbing above the 63,000 level following last week’s weaker US employment report. Softer labour market data has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may eventually adopt a less restrictive monetary policy, improving overall liquidity expectations for cryptocurrencies. Institutional demand also remains supportive despite continued uncertainty over the timing of future rate adjustments.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a short-term uptrend after successfully holding support near 62,000. A sustained move above 64,000 could encourage additional buying interest, while any hawkish surprises from the FOMC Minutes may trigger temporary profit-taking across the crypto market.

Gold

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold begins the week holding firm after benefiting from a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields following last week’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated that inflation remains the Fed’s priority, investors continue viewing gold as an attractive hedge against economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. This week’s FOMC Minutes will be closely watched for any indication of how divided policymakers remain regarding future interest-rate decisions.

Technically, gold continues trading above key support around 4,125, keeping the broader bullish structure intact. Buyers may target the 4,200 resistance level if the dollar weakens further, while a more hawkish interpretation of the FOMC Minutes could trigger a temporary pullback toward support.

Stocks / Equities

NAS100

The NAS100 continues trading near record highs as technology stocks remain supported by expectations that US interest rates may gradually become less restrictive later this year. While the Federal Reserve remains committed to controlling inflation, weaker labour market data has improved investor confidence that borrowing costs may eventually stabilize.

Technically, the index remains firmly bullish above 29,300. A break above 29,950 could signal another leg higher, although traders should expect increased volatility surrounding Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 remains resilient as investors balance slowing economic growth with continued corporate earnings optimism. Markets continue interpreting weaker employment data as reducing pressure for additional monetary tightening, although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target.

The broader trend remains positive, with support around 7,470. Holding above this level keeps buyers in control while resistance near 7,555 remains the next upside objective.

US30

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues benefiting from strength in industrial and financial stocks while investors digest recent economic data. Stable inflation expectations and easing geopolitical tensions have helped improve overall market sentiment heading into the new week.

Technically, the US30 remains comfortably above support near 52,550. As long as buyers defend this level, the index may continue challenging resistance around 53,150, particularly if the FOMC Minutes fail to deliver any unexpected hawkish surprises.

Geopolitics

Tensions in the Middle East have eased considerably compared to previous weeks, with negotiations between the United States and Iran continuing through diplomatic channels. The reduction in immediate military risks has improved overall market sentiment and contributed to the recent decline in oil prices below the $70 per barrel level.

Despite the calmer environment, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Any setback in negotiations or renewed regional tensions could quickly revive demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar while lifting crude oil prices. For now, investors appear cautiously optimistic, but geopolitical developments remain an important driver of market volatility.

Economic Calendar

Monday – ISM Services PMI

Monday begins with a relatively quiet economic calendar, with the ISM Services PMI serving as the day’s primary release. The index measures business activity across the US services sector, which represents roughly two-thirds of the US economy.

A stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce confidence in the US economy and could support the US dollar by reducing expectations for future interest-rate cuts. Conversely, weaker data may weigh on the dollar while supporting gold and other risk-sensitive assets.

Tuesday – Quiet Trading Session

Tuesday features no major scheduled economic releases from the United States, allowing markets to consolidate after last week’s employment data.

In the absence of major data, traders are likely to focus on Federal Reserve commentary, geopolitical headlines and positioning ahead of Wednesday’s high-impact events.

Wednesday – RBNZ Rate Statement

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to raise its Official Cash Rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. If policymakers deliver the expected hike while maintaining a hawkish tone on inflation, the New Zealand dollar could strengthen across major currency pairs.

However, if the RBNZ signals that rates are nearing their peak or expresses concerns about slowing economic growth, the NZD could quickly surrender gains despite the expected increase.

Wednesday – FOMC Meeting Minutes

The release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be the most important event of the week.

The minutes provide a detailed account of discussions during the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting, offering traders deeper insight into how policymakers view inflation, employment and future interest-rate decisions. Investors will closely examine whether committee members remain concerned about persistent inflation or whether more officials are becoming comfortable with eventually easing policy.

A hawkish set of minutes would likely strengthen the US dollar while pressuring gold, Bitcoin and equities. Conversely, if the minutes reveal growing concerns about slowing economic growth or increased support for future rate cuts, the dollar could weaken while risk assets receive additional support.

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims

The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report provides a timely snapshot of conditions in the US labour market.

Higher-than-expected claims could reinforce concerns that employment conditions are weakening following last week’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report, potentially weighing on the US dollar. Lower claims would suggest continued labour market resilience and could provide fresh support for the greenback.

Friday – Canada Employment Report

Friday’s Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate will be the week’s final major economic releases.

A stronger labour market would likely support the Canadian dollar by reinforcing confidence in the domestic economy and reducing expectations for monetary easing. Weaker employment figures, however, could pressure the loonie and increase volatility in USDCAD.

Forex Factory Calendar

Final Outlook

Markets enter the week with attention firmly focused on the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are expected to provide fresh insight into the Federal Reserve’s thinking following last month’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. While last week’s weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report has softened expectations for further aggressive tightening, persistent inflation and Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks continue supporting the higher-for-longer interest-rate narrative.

Alongside the FOMC Minutes, traders will closely monitor the RBNZ interest-rate decision, ISM Services PMI, US Jobless Claims and Canada’s Employment Report. With geopolitical tensions easing and oil prices trading below $70, market sentiment has improved, but volatility is likely to increase as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy across major central banks.

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