Oil prices remain above $80 as US-Iran tensions escalate. Get today’s outlook for the dollar, gold, stocks, crypto, forex, and this week’s key economic events.

Forex Market Today: Oil Prices Stay Above $80 as US-Iran Tensions Lift Gold, Support the Dollar and Pressure Stocks & Crypto

Global markets remain firmly in risk-off mode as escalating conflict between the United States and Iran continues to dominate investor sentiment. Fresh military strikes, growing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed warnings from President Donald Trump have pushed oil prices above $80 while increasing demand for gold and the US dollar. Investors are simultaneously assessing how higher energy prices could fuel inflation and complicate future Federal Reserve policy. This report covers today’s outlook for forex, gold, oil, cryptocurrencies, global equity markets, and the key economic events traders should monitor throughout the week.

Support and Resistance Snapshop

Market Analysis

Currencies / Forex

The foreign exchange market remains dominated by geopolitical developments as traders continue assessing the implications of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. While softer US inflation data had previously weakened the dollar, renewed safe-haven demand has stabilized the greenback as investors reduce exposure to higher-risk assets. Rising crude oil prices are also increasing concerns that inflation could reaccelerate, potentially delaying future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

This week, attention will gradually shift toward the UK’s inflation report, Australia’s employment figures, the ECB interest rate decision and Friday’s PMI releases. Until then, geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the primary driver of forex volatility.

EURUSD

EURUSD remains supported above the 1.1400 region as the euro continues benefiting from expectations that the European Central Bank may gradually normalize policy after inflation stabilizes. However, gains remain limited as investors continue favoring the US dollar during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Technically, the pair remains constructive while holding above key support near 1.1380, although rallies toward 1.1470 may attract profit-taking if safe-haven demand strengthens.

GBPUSD

Sterling continues trading near recent highs as investors position ahead of this week’s UK inflation report. Stronger-than-expected CPI could reinforce expectations that the Bank of England maintains relatively restrictive policy, supporting the pound.

Price action remains bullish while above 1.3400, although geopolitical uncertainty continues limiting upside momentum across all major currencies.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar remains relatively stable ahead of Thursday’s employment report. Australia’s economy remains highly exposed to global growth expectations and Chinese demand, making AUD particularly sensitive to broader risk sentiment.

Technically, AUDUSD continues consolidating near the 0.7000 psychological level. Strong employment data could trigger another leg higher, while worsening geopolitical risks may weigh on the currency.

NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar remains firm ahead of the upcoming CPI report. Softer US inflation has supported higher-yielding currencies, although continued geopolitical tensions continue encouraging defensive positioning.

Support remains near 0.5820, while resistance is located around 0.5900. Inflation data will likely determine the pair’s next directional move.

USDCAD

USDCAD remains under pressure despite rising oil prices. The Canadian dollar continues benefiting from stronger crude prices because Canada is a major oil exporter.

However, broader US dollar strength continues limiting downside. The pair may remain volatile ahead of Canada’s next major inflation and employment reports.

USDJPY

USDJPY continues trading near multi-decade highs as the yield differential between the United States and Japan remains extremely wide. Safe-haven demand has not significantly benefited the yen because investors continue favoring the higher-yielding US dollar.

Technically, the bullish trend remains intact while above 161.80, although intervention risks from Japanese authorities continue increasing near current levels.

USDCHF

USDCHF remains relatively stable as investors balance demand for both the Swiss franc and the US dollar during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Both currencies continue attracting defensive flows.

The pair remains range-bound, with traders closely watching developments in the Middle East for the next major catalyst.

Crypto / Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues outperforming many traditional risk assets despite the increasingly uncertain geopolitical backdrop. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has recovered above $65,000, supported by resilient institutional demand and improving long-term sentiment. However, geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility of prolonged higher interest rates continue limiting aggressive buying as investors remain cautious.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a medium-term uptrend while holding above key support around $64,000. A sustained break above $66,200 could encourage fresh bullish momentum, while renewed escalation in the Middle East or a stronger US dollar could trigger another period of consolidation.

Gold

Gold continues benefiting from growing safe-haven demand as the conflict between the United States and Iran intensifies. Investors remain concerned that prolonged military action could disrupt global energy markets and push inflation higher, increasing demand for defensive assets. Although softer US inflation data initially reduced pressure on precious metals, geopolitical risks have now become the dominant driver.

Technically, gold remains comfortably above the psychological 4,000 level. Immediate support sits near 4,020, while resistance is located around 4,085. As long as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, buyers are likely to continue defending pullbacks.

Stocks / Equities

Global equity markets remain under pressure as investors rotate away from risk assets and toward traditional safe havens. Rising oil prices threaten corporate profit margins while also increasing concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer. That combination may complicate future Federal Reserve policy and reduce expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Until geopolitical tensions ease, equity markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to both military developments and macroeconomic data releases. Defensive sectors may continue outperforming technology and other growth-oriented industries.

NAS100

The NAS100 remains vulnerable as higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on technology stocks. Although artificial intelligence continues supporting long-term optimism, investors remain cautious as elevated bond yields and inflation risks pressure growth valuations.

The index remains technically weak below 29,150, with support located around 28,600.

US30

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shown greater resilience than technology-heavy indices thanks to its larger weighting in industrial, financial and defensive companies. Nevertheless, increasing geopolitical risks continue limiting upside momentum.

Support remains near 51,700, while resistance is located around 52,400.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 continues trading cautiously as investors balance resilient corporate earnings against rising geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices. Market breadth remains mixed, with energy stocks outperforming while growth sectors struggle.

Support is currently seen near 7,440, while resistance remains around 7,535. A sustained improvement in geopolitical conditions would likely be required before equities regain stronger bullish momentum.

Geopolitics

The conflict between the United States and Iran remains the dominant driver of global financial markets. Fresh military exchanges have continued after reports that two US soldiers were killed in Jordan, with both countries carrying out additional strikes across the region. President Donald Trump has warned that Iran will “pay dearly” for attacks on American forces, raising fears that the conflict could escalate into a broader regional confrontation.

Iran has also reiterated that not a single drop of oil or gas would pass through the Strait of Hormuz if hostilities continue. Because nearly 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil passes through this vital shipping route, energy markets remain extremely sensitive to every new headline. As a result, investors continue moving into safe-haven assets while reducing exposure to equities and other risk-sensitive investments.

Although diplomatic channels remain open, hopes for a lasting peace agreement continue fading as both sides intensify military operations. Until meaningful progress is made toward de-escalation, geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the primary catalyst for global markets.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday

Tuesday remains relatively quiet, with New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the UK Claimant Count Change report attracting most of the attention.

New Zealand’s inflation report could influence expectations for future Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy. Higher inflation would likely support the kiwi, while weaker inflation may pressure NZD.

The UK’s labor market report measures changes in unemployment benefit claims. Lower claims generally strengthen the pound by signaling a resilient labor market.

Wednesday

Wednesday’s highlight is the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Inflation remains one of the Bank of England’s primary policy considerations. A stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations that interest rates remain elevated for longer, supporting GBP. Softer inflation could increase speculation about future rate cuts.

Thursday

Thursday brings several important market-moving events.

Australia releases its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, both key indicators for the Australian dollar. Strong employment growth generally supports AUD, while weaker labor data may trigger selling pressure.

The European Central Bank is expected to leave its Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 2.40%. Traders will closely monitor President Christine Lagarde’s comments for guidance on future monetary policy.

The United States also publishes Initial Jobless Claims, providing another snapshot of labor market conditions. Lower claims generally support the US dollar by reinforcing economic resilience.

Friday

Friday concludes the week with Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI reports from the Eurozone, the United Kingdom and the United States.

These surveys provide one of the earliest indicators of business activity and economic momentum. Strong PMI readings typically support their respective currencies and equity markets, while weaker results may increase concerns about slowing economic growth and create additional market volatility.

Final Outlook

Markets remain firmly in risk-off mode as the escalating US-Iran conflict continues overshadowing economic fundamentals. Renewed military strikes, President Trump’s warning that Iran will “pay dearly,” and Tehran’s threats to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have kept crude oil prices elevated above $80, supporting gold while weighing on global equity markets. Investors remain concerned that prolonged energy price strength could reignite inflation and delay future Federal Reserve policy easing.

Although this week’s economic calendar features several important releases—including UK inflation, Australia’s employment report, the ECB rate decision and Flash PMI data—geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the dominant catalyst. Traders should expect continued volatility across forex, commodities, cryptocurrencies and equity markets until there is greater clarity surrounding the Middle East conflict.

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