Forex Market Today: Dollar, Stocks, Crypto, Gold & Oil React to US-Iran Tensions, US CPI and Kevin Warsh Testimony

TraderFactor Market Report July 14, 2026

Forex Market Today: Dollar, Stocks, Crypto, Gold & Oil React to US-Iran Tensions, US CPI and Kevin Warsh Testimony

Global financial markets are entering one of the most important trading sessions of the week as investors prepare for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress. At the same time, renewed military strikes between the United States and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz continue fueling geopolitical uncertainty, keeping oil prices elevated and increasing demand for safe-haven assets. With markets remaining heavily headline-driven, today’s inflation data, central bank commentary and Middle East developments are expected to determine the next direction for the US dollar, gold, oil, cryptocurrencies and global equity markets.

Economic Calendar Snapshot

Support and Resistance Snapshot

Market Analysis

Currencies / Forex

Currency markets remain dominated by expectations surrounding today’s US CPI report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony. The US dollar continues attracting demand as traders anticipate inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% objective, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could stay elevated for longer. At the same time, renewed military activity between the United States and Iran has strengthened safe-haven flows into the greenback.

Beyond today’s macroeconomic events, forex traders remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Reports of fresh attacks around the Strait of Hormuz continue influencing sentiment across commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies. Volatility is expected to remain elevated throughout the session as inflation data, central bank commentary and geopolitical developments unfold.

EURUSD

EURUSD remains under pressure as the stronger US dollar continues dominating price action ahead of today’s CPI release. Expectations that inflation will remain elevated have supported Treasury yields and reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. That outlook has limited upside momentum for the euro despite recent resilience in Eurozone data.

Technically, the pair continues trading just above key support around 1.1360. A softer-than-expected CPI reading could allow EURUSD to rebound toward 1.1450, while stronger inflation would likely strengthen the dollar further and push the pair back toward recent lows.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading cautiously ahead of today’s US inflation report while investors also await comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Sterling has received modest support from expectations that the UK economy remains relatively resilient, but broad dollar strength continues capping gains.

The pair remains range-bound above 1.3320 support. Hawkish remarks from Bailey could provide temporary support, although today’s US data is expected to remain the primary driver. A stronger dollar could see GBPUSD revisit lower support levels.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD continues facing pressure as investors reduce exposure to risk-sensitive currencies amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher US interest rates. While commodity prices have generally improved, the stronger US dollar continues offsetting any positive impact for the Australian dollar.

The pair remains vulnerable below 0.6985 resistance. Unless today’s CPI disappoints significantly or global risk appetite improves, AUDUSD is likely to remain under selling pressure.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD has stabilized after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased its Official Cash Rate to 2.50%, providing some support for the kiwi. However, traders remain cautious ahead of today’s US inflation report and ongoing geopolitical developments.

Although the RBNZ decision has improved the medium-term outlook, broader market sentiment continues favoring the US dollar. A weaker-than-expected CPI could support NZDUSD, while stronger inflation may reverse recent gains.

USDJPY

USDJPY remains firmly supported as higher US Treasury yields continue favoring the dollar over the Japanese yen. The divergence between Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy continues supporting upside momentum, although intervention concerns remain present whenever the pair approaches new highs.

Technically, momentum remains bullish above 161.60, with resistance near 163.00. Today’s CPI and Kevin Warsh’s testimony could determine whether buyers attempt another move toward fresh highs.

USDCHF

USDCHF continues trading with a positive bias as investors favor the US dollar following renewed geopolitical tensions and expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated. Although the Swiss franc typically benefits during periods of uncertainty, the current strength of the dollar has outweighed traditional safe-haven demand.

The pair remains supported above 0.8090. Unless inflation surprises to the downside, the broader trend continues favoring the US dollar against the Swiss franc.

USDCAD

USDCAD has eased slightly despite the stronger US dollar as crude oil prices surge toward $80 per barrel, improving the outlook for the Canadian dollar. Rising oil prices typically support Canada’s export revenues, helping offset broader USD strength.

Traders will also be looking ahead to tomorrow’s Bank of Canada rate decision and Friday’s Canadian employment report. Until then, the pair is expected to remain sensitive to both oil price movements and today’s US inflation data.

Crypto / Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains under pressure near the $62,700 region as traders await today’s US CPI report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony. Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations continue weighing on risk assets, while renewed US-Iran tensions have encouraged investors to rotate toward traditional safe havens and the US dollar.

Technically, Bitcoin remains trapped in a consolidation range. Immediate support is located near 62,000, while resistance sits around 64,000. A softer-than-expected inflation reading could improve risk appetite and support a recovery, while stronger CPI may trigger another leg lower across the cryptocurrency market.

Gold

Gold is trading around 4,022 as investors balance rising geopolitical risks against a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields. Renewed military strikes involving the United States and Iran continue supporting safe-haven demand, but expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer are limiting upside momentum.

From a technical perspective, gold remains range-bound between 3,990 support and 4,075 resistance. Today’s CPI report and Kevin Warsh’s testimony are expected to determine the next major move. Softer inflation could weaken the dollar and lift gold, while stronger inflation may push the metal back toward key support.

Stocks / Equities

Global equity markets remain cautious ahead of today’s inflation data. Investors are weighing resilient corporate earnings against the possibility that persistent inflation could delay future Federal Reserve rate cuts. At the same time, escalating US-Iran tensions continue increasing geopolitical risks, encouraging more defensive positioning across global markets.

Today’s CPI report is likely to become the biggest driver for equities. Lower inflation would support expectations for easier monetary policy and could boost stocks, while another upside surprise may pressure valuations, particularly within growth-oriented sectors.

NAS100

The NAS100 continues consolidating as technology stocks react to changing interest rate expectations. AI-related optimism remains supportive over the longer term, but higher Treasury yields continue limiting aggressive buying.

Support is located near 29,100, while resistance is seen around 29,750. A weaker CPI report could trigger renewed buying interest across technology shares.

US30

The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains relatively resilient as investors continue rotating into industrial, healthcare and value-oriented companies. Defensive sectors have outperformed during the recent period of geopolitical uncertainty.

The index remains supported above 52,000, with resistance near 52,900. Broader market direction will largely depend on today’s inflation data and any fresh geopolitical headlines.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 remains in consolidation mode as traders await clearer signals from inflation data and Federal Reserve policy. Although earnings expectations remain constructive, uncertainty surrounding interest rates and geopolitical developments continues limiting upside momentum.

Support is found around 7,480, while resistance sits near 7,585. A softer CPI reading could improve sentiment and encourage another move toward record highs, while stronger inflation may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Geopolitics

Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran remains the dominant driver of market sentiment after reports of fresh strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. The latest escalation has increased concerns about potential supply disruptions, helping push WTI crude oil close to $80 per barrel while supporting demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar.

Despite continued diplomatic efforts, uncertainty surrounding future negotiations remains high. Every new headline has the potential to trigger sharp moves across forex, commodities, cryptocurrencies and equity markets. Until there is greater clarity on the conflict, geopolitical developments are likely to remain as influential as economic data in driving market direction.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday — US CPI Inflation Report

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be the week’s biggest market-moving event. Annual inflation is forecast to ease to 3.8% from 4.2%, although it would remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

A lower-than-expected reading could weaken the US dollar while supporting gold, cryptocurrencies and equities. Conversely, stronger inflation would reinforce expectations for higher interest rates, likely boosting the dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring risk assets.

Tuesday — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Testimony

Following the CPI release, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee. Markets will closely monitor his remarks for clues about future monetary policy after last week’s FOMC Minutes showed a divided committee.

Hawkish comments emphasizing persistent inflation risks would likely strengthen the dollar, while any dovish tone suggesting greater confidence in slowing inflation could support equities, gold and cryptocurrencies.

Tuesday — BOE Governor Bailey Speech

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is also scheduled to speak today. Traders will watch for guidance on UK inflation and future interest rate policy.

Any hawkish remarks could provide support for the British pound, while dovish comments may pressure GBP crosses.

Wednesday — US PPI & Bank of Canada

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures inflation at the wholesale level and often provides an early indication of future consumer inflation trends. Stronger-than-expected producer inflation could reinforce expectations that price pressures remain persistent.

Markets will also watch the Bank of Canada interest rate decision, where policymakers are expected to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%. The Canadian dollar could experience increased volatility depending on the accompanying policy statement and guidance.

Thursday — UK GDP, Retail Sales & US Jobless Claims

Thursday’s focus shifts to the UK, where GDP data will provide fresh insight into economic growth. Stronger growth could support sterling, while weaker figures may increase expectations for future Bank of England easing.

The US will also release Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, a closely watched indicator of labor market strength. Lower claims generally support the US dollar, while rising claims may weaken it.

Friday — Quiet End to the Week

No major high-impact economic releases are scheduled for Friday. However, traders will continue monitoring geopolitical developments, central bank commentary and any follow-up market reactions to the week’s inflation data.

Final Outlook

Markets are entering today’s session with two dominant themes: US inflation and the escalating US-Iran conflict. While renewed military strikes around the Strait of Hormuz continue supporting oil prices and safe-haven demand, traders are primarily focused on the US CPI report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, both of which could reshape expectations for future interest rate policy.

If inflation comes in below expectations, markets could see a weaker US dollar alongside gains in gold, cryptocurrencies and equities. However, another upside surprise in CPI, combined with hawkish comments from Warsh, would likely reinforce the “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative, supporting the dollar while pressuring risk assets.

With geopolitical tensions remaining elevated and major economic releases scheduled throughout the week, traders should prepare for significant volatility across forex, gold, oil, cryptocurrencies and global stock markets.

About the Author