Forex Market Today: Dollar, gold, oil, crypto and stocks react to FOMC minutes, PMI reports, cooling inflation and renewed US-Iran tensions.

Forex Market Today: Forex Market Today: Traders Expectations Ahead of FOMC Minutes Tomorrow

Global markets enter the week with traders balancing cooling US inflation against renewed geopolitical risks and expectations for fresh signals from the Federal Reserve. US CPI recently eased to 3.4%, while PPI came in at 0.0%, suggesting that inflationary pressure may be moderating. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, keeping monetary policy firmly in focus. At the same time, weaker JOLTS and NFP figures have raised concerns about the US labor market. Traders are now watching FOMC minutes and upcoming PMI reports for clues about interest rates, economic growth and the next major move across forex, gold, oil, stocks and crypto.

Support and Resistance Snapshot

Market Analysis

Currencies / Forex

Forex markets remain driven by the balance between cooling US inflation, weaker labor-market signals and continued geopolitical uncertainty. CPI has fallen to 3.4% and PPI to 0.0%, giving traders more evidence that price pressure may be moderating. At the same time, the recent weakness in JOLTS and NFP has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could eventually have more room to ease policy. However, inflation remains above the 2% target, meaning the Fed still has reasons to remain cautious.

The dollar remains technically supported around the 99.20 area. A sustained move above 100.20 could strengthen the bullish outlook, while a break below 99.20 would increase the possibility of a deeper correction.

EURUSD

EURUSD remains supported as the dollar struggles to extend its recent gains. The pair is trading above 1.15, with traders assessing whether softer US inflation and labor-market data can reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy.

A sustained move above 1.1620 could strengthen the bullish structure, while a break below 1.1530 would weaken the current outlook.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD remains firm as sterling benefits from broader dollar uncertainty. Traders are also watching UK economic developments and upcoming PMI data for clues about domestic growth.

The pair remains constructive above 1.3470, while resistance near 1.3580 could determine whether the current advance has enough momentum to continue.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD remains supported by improved risk appetite and a softer medium-term dollar outlook. However, the Australian dollar remains vulnerable to changes in global growth expectations and commodity sentiment.

The pair remains constructive above 0.7070, while a break above 0.7150 could strengthen the bullish setup.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD continues to trade with a cautious tone. The pair is benefiting from dollar uncertainty but remains exposed to global risk sentiment and changes in expectations for economic growth.

Support near 0.5840 remains important, while 0.5920 is the next major upside level.

USDJPY

USDJPY remains elevated near the 160 psychological level. Dollar strength and relatively high US yields continue supporting the pair, although intervention concerns remain an important risk.

A sustained break above 160.50 could open additional upside, while a move below 159.00 would weaken the bullish structure.

USDCHF

USDCHF remains relatively stable as traders balance dollar strength against traditional safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc.

The pair remains range-bound between approximately 0.8070 and 0.8170, with broader dollar direction likely to determine the next breakout.

USDCAD

USDCAD remains sensitive to both dollar movements and crude oil prices. Higher oil prices provide underlying support for the Canadian dollar, while geopolitical developments can create significant short-term volatility.

The pair remains vulnerable below 1.3950, particularly if oil prices continue rising.

Crypto / Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains around the $64,000 region as traders assess the impact of cooling inflation and Federal Reserve expectations. Lower inflation can eventually improve liquidity expectations, but uncertainty around interest rates continues limiting aggressive risk-taking.

From a technical perspective, BTCUSD remains supported near $63,000. A break above $65,500 could improve the short-term bullish outlook, while a loss of $63,000 could expose the market to deeper downside pressure.

Gold

Gold remains supported as geopolitical uncertainty continues to create demand for defensive assets. Cooling US inflation is also important because weaker price pressure could eventually reduce expectations for restrictive monetary policy.

However, gold remains highly sensitive to the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, $4,350 is an important support area while $4,450 represents nearby resistance. A sustained break above resistance could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Stocks / Equities

US equities remain relatively resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty. Cooling inflation provides some support for risk assets because it may eventually give the Federal Reserve greater flexibility. However, stronger oil prices can create a new inflationary challenge and potentially limit the upside for stocks.

The upcoming FOMC minutes and PMI reports are therefore important. Strong economic activity combined with persistent inflation could keep yields elevated, while weaker growth data may increase expectations for easier policy.

NAS100

The NAS100 remains supported near 29,400 as investors continue to favor technology and growth stocks. However, higher Treasury yields remain a risk because they can reduce the attractiveness of high-valuation growth companies.

A move above 30,200 would strengthen the bullish outlook, while a break below 29,400 could trigger a deeper correction.

US30

The US30 remains relatively stable as investors rotate between growth and value sectors. Industrial and financial companies remain sensitive to economic growth expectations, while higher energy prices can influence corporate costs.

Support near 53,000 remains important, with 54,000 acting as the next major resistance zone.

SP500

The SP500 remains close to recent highs as investors balance economic resilience with interest-rate uncertainty.

A break above 7,800 could reinforce bullish momentum, while a move below 7,650 would suggest increasing downside pressure.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical headlines remain one of the biggest sources of market volatility. The latest US-Iran developments continue to focus heavily on the Strait of Hormuz, where competing claims over control and restricted shipping activity are keeping energy markets on edge.

Recent reports indicate that Iran has threatened further escalation if diplomatic efforts fail, while the United States has maintained pressure over access through the strategic waterway. Shipping disruptions can increase the risk premium in oil prices and create secondary effects across inflation expectations, currencies, equities and gold.

Qatar and other regional actors continue to play a role in diplomatic efforts, but the market remains highly headline-driven. Any sign of de-escalation could pressure oil and safe-haven assets, while renewed military action could produce the opposite reaction.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday — UK Labour Market Data

Britain’s Claimant Count Change and Average Earnings Index will be important for GBP traders. The labor-market data can influence expectations for Bank of England policy.

Recent estimates showed payrolled employees falling by approximately 78,000, or 0.3%, between June 2025 and June 2026, although the monthly change was relatively small. A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier policy and pressure sterling.

Wednesday — UK CPI

UK inflation data will remain important for GBP because it can influence expectations for future Bank of England decisions.

A stronger inflation reading could support sterling if traders price fewer rate cuts, while weaker inflation could increase expectations for monetary easing.

Wednesday — Australia Wage Price Index

Australian wage data provides insight into domestic inflation pressure and is therefore important for AUD traders.

Stronger wage growth can increase expectations for tighter RBA policy, while softer wages may reduce those expectations.

Wednesday — ECB President Speech

Comments from the ECB President can affect the euro through changes in monetary-policy expectations.

Traders will watch for signals about inflation, economic growth and the future path of interest rates.

Wednesday — FOMC Meeting Minutes

The FOMC minutes are the week’s major USD event. The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the July meeting, while noting that inflation remained elevated relative to its 2% goal.

The minutes could provide additional insight into how policymakers viewed inflation, employment and the risks created by the Middle East conflict. A hawkish tone could support the dollar and Treasury yields, while dovish signals could support gold, equities and Bitcoin.

The Federal Reserve has scheduled the July 28–29 meeting minutes for release on August 19.

Thursday — Australia Employment Report

Australia’s employment report will provide fresh information about labor-market strength.

Strong employment growth could support AUD by reinforcing expectations for tighter policy, while weaker employment could increase expectations for easing.

Thursday — US Weekly Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims provide a timely indication of labor-market conditions.

With recent JOLTS and NFP data already pointing toward weaker employment momentum, another soft reading could strengthen expectations for future Fed easing.

Friday — Flash Manufacturing PMI

Flash Manufacturing PMI reports from the Eurozone, UK and US will provide an early look at private-sector business activity.

Stronger US PMI data could support the dollar by showing continued economic resilience. Weaker figures could increase concerns about slowing growth and potentially support expectations for easier monetary policy.

Forex Factory Calendar

Final Outlook

Markets remain caught between two competing forces: cooling US inflation and renewed geopolitical risks. CPI at 3.4% and PPI at 0.0% suggest that inflationary pressure is easing, while weaker JOLTS and NFP data point toward a softer labor market.

However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and the conflict surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continues to create risks for energy prices. Higher oil prices could complicate the inflation outlook and make it harder for the Fed to become aggressively dovish.

For now, traders should focus on the FOMC minutes and PMI reports. A dovish Fed message combined with weaker economic data could support gold, equities and Bitcoin, while a hawkish tone or stronger growth data could strengthen the dollar.

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